home » Marketing » Summary: Expert method of risk assessment. Expert judgment in occupational risk analysis Process risk analysis by expert method example

Summary: Expert method of risk assessment. Expert judgment in occupational risk analysis Process risk analysis by expert method example

Freedom in decision-making inevitably gives rise to risks of possible losses. It can be argued that risks are the flip side of free enterprise. Since risks are associated with the uncertainty of the occurrence of events and can lead to fluctuations in the financial result, then in order to select alternatives for the development of events, risk management industrial enterprises needs methods for quantitative risk assessment both in the form of probabilities of occurrence of events, and in the form of specific financial losses.

An essential factor in improving the scientific level of management is the use of mathematical methods and models in the preparation of solutions. However, a complete mathematical formalization of technical and economic problems is often not feasible due to their qualitative novelty and complexity. In this regard, expert methods are increasingly used, which are understood as a set of logical and mathematical-statistical methods and procedures aimed at obtaining from specialists the information necessary for the preparation and selection of rational decisions.

Expert methods are now used in situations where the choice, justification and evaluation of the consequences of decisions cannot be performed on the basis of accurate calculations. Such situations often arise during the development contemporary problems management of social production and, especially, in forecasting and long-term planning.

In the course of development social production not only the complexity of management increases, but also the requirements for the quality of decisions made. In order to increase the validity of decisions and take into account the numerous factors influencing their results, a comprehensive analysis is needed, based both on calculations and on reasoned judgments of managers and specialists familiar with the state of affairs and development prospects in various fields. practical activities. The use of expert methods ensures the active and purposeful participation of specialists at all stages of decision-making, which can significantly improve their quality and efficiency.

The essence of the method of expert assessments is that experts conduct an intuitive-logical analysis of the problem with a quantitative assessment of judgments and formal processing of the results. The generalized opinion of experts obtained as a result of processing is accepted as a solution to the problem. The complex use of intuition (unconscious thinking), logical thinking and quantitative assessments with their formal processing makes it possible to obtain an effective solution to the problem.

When performing their role in the management process, experts perform two main functions: they form objects (alternative situations, goals, decisions, etc.) and measure their characteristics (probabilities of events, goals significance coefficients, decision preferences, etc.) .

The formation of objects is carried out by experts on the basis of logical thinking and intuition. In this case, the knowledge and experience of the expert play an important role.

Measuring the characteristics of objects requires experts to know the theory of measurements.

The characteristic features of the method of expert assessments as a scientific tool for solving complex non-formalizable problems are, firstly, the scientifically based organization of all stages of the examination, ensuring the greatest efficiency at each stage, and, secondly, the use of quantitative methods both in organizing the examination and and in evaluating expert judgment and formal group processing of the results. These two features distinguish the method of expert assessments from the usual long-known expertise, widely used in various fields of human activity.

All risks of the enterprise can be conditionally divided into two classes. The first class includes risks for which there is sufficient information potential to successfully manage them. The main difficulties in managing first-class risks in peer review are in realizing the existing information potential by selecting experts, building rational survey procedures and applying optimal methods for processing its results. At the same time, the methods of interrogation and processing are based on the use of the principle of a “good” meter. This principle means that the following hypotheses are fulfilled:

1) an expert is a repository of a large amount of rationally processed information, and therefore it can be considered as a qualitative source of information;

2) the group opinion of experts is close to the true solution of the problem.

If these hypotheses are correct, then the results of measurement theory and mathematical statistics can be used to construct polling procedures and processing algorithms.

The second class includes risks in respect of which the information potential of knowledge is insufficient to be sure of the validity of these hypotheses. When managing risks from this class of experts can no longer be regarded as "good measurers". Therefore, it is necessary to be very careful when processing the results of the examination. Applying averaging methods that are valid for "good meters"

in this case can lead to large errors. For example, the opinion of one expert, which is very different from the opinions of other experts, may turn out to be correct. In this regard, for the risks of the second class, qualitative treatment should be applied in general.

We list the typical tasks solved by the method of expert assessments in risk management:

1) compiling a list of possible risks in various areas for a certain period of time;

2) determination of the most probable time intervals for the completion of a set of events;

3) definition of goals and objectives of management with ordering them in order of importance;

4) identification of alternative (options for solving the problem with an assessment of their preferences);

5) alternative distribution of resources for solving problems with an assessment of their preference;

6) alternative decision-making options in a certain situation with an assessment of their preference.

Using the method of expert assessments helps to formalize the procedures for collecting, summarizing and analyzing the opinions of specialists in order to transform them into the most convenient form for making an informed decision in the field of risk management.

But, it should be noted that the method of expert assessments cannot replace either administrative or planning decisions, it only allows you to replenish the information necessary for the preparation and adoption of such decisions.

Expert methods are continuously developed and improved. The main directions of this development are determined by a number of factors, among which one can point to the desire to expand the scope, increase the degree of use of mathematical methods and electronic computers, and also find ways to eliminate emerging shortcomings.

Despite the progress made in last years in the development and practical use of the method of expert assessments, there are a number of problems and tasks that require further methodological research and practical verification. It is necessary to improve the system for selecting experts, to increase the reliability of group opinion characteristics, to develop methods for checking the validity of assessments, and to study the hidden causes that reduce the reliability of expert assessments.

However, even today, expert assessments in combination with other mathematical and statistical methods are an important tool for improving management in the field of risk management.

Literature:

1. D.S. Shmerling, S.A. Dubrovsky, T.D. Arzhanova, A.A. Frenkel. Expert assessments. Methods and application (review) // Sat. " Statistical Methods analysis of expert assessments”. M., Nauka, 1977

2. Beshelev S.D., Gurvich F.G. Expert assessments. M.: Nauka, 1973. 246 p.

3. Beshelev S.D., Gurvich F.G. Expert assessments in making planned decisions. M.: Economics, 1976. 287 p.

4. Vladimirov V. A., Vorobyov Yu. L., Salov S. S. Risk management: Risk. Sustainable development. Synergetics. - M.: Nauka, 2000.

Send your good work in the knowledge base is simple. Use the form below

Students, graduate students, young scientists who use the knowledge base in their studies and work will be very grateful to you.

Posted on http://www.allbest.ru/

Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation

Federal State Budgetary Educational Institution of Higher Professional Education

"St. Petersburg Polytechnic University of Peter the Great - structural subdivision"Institute of Trade and Economic University"

(FGAOU VO "SPbPU - TEU")

Faculty of Trade and Consumer Products Expertise

Abstract on the discipline: "Risk Management"

On the topic: "Method of expert risk assessments"

The work was done by a student

4 courses, groups 47035/3

Record book number: 13687 - TD

Kuznetsov I.A.

Checked:

Scientific adviser Goncharov G.A.

Saint Petersburg 2016

- Introduction

Introduction

Risk is inherent in any field economic activity. The problem of risk is of particular importance in entrepreneurship, where intensive changes in the environment of a business entity necessitate a prompt and energetic response to the transformations that come in business. At the same time, it is necessary to take into account the industry specifics that determine the risk factors, the degree of their manifestation and significance.

The lack of evidence-based approaches to the analysis and risk assessment of research and production enterprises leads to such undesirable consequences as loss of profits, unsold stocks of goods, reduced investment efficiency, the occurrence of losses in transactions, a reduction in the resource base, etc.

However, despite a significant number of studies in the field of risk analysis and an active search for ways to objectively assess the magnitude of risk, many methodological and methodological issues of this important issue not yet resolved. So, in particular, so far there is no consensus on the nature and content of the economic risk of enterprises, criteria and indicators (general and private) for assessing economic risk have not been substantiated, there is no evidence-based classification of factors that determine economic risks, in particular external risks. risks of the enterprise in market conditions of functioning.

The need to improve the risk assessment of an enterprise and, in particular, a research and production enterprise in market conditions predetermined the relevance of the research topic.

1. Risk zones and risk curve

An entrepreneur should always strive to take into account the possible risk and provide for measures to reduce its level and compensate for probable losses. This is the essence of risk management (risk management). the main objective risk management (especially for conditions modern Russia) - to ensure that in the worst case it could be a lack of profit, but not the bankruptcy of the organization. To assess the degree of acceptability of commercial risk, it is necessary to allocate risk zones depending on the expected amount of losses. General scheme risk zones is shown in fig. one.

Figure 1. Risk zones.

The area in which losses are not expected, i.e. where the economic result economic activity positive is called the risk-free zone. The zone of acceptable risk is the area within which the amount of probable losses does not exceed the expected profit and, therefore, commercial activity has economic feasibility. The boundary of the acceptable risk zone corresponds to the level of losses equal to the calculated profit. The critical risk zone is the area of possible losses that exceed the amount of expected profit up to the value of the total estimated revenue (the sum of costs and profits). Here, the entrepreneur runs the risk of not only not receiving any income, but also incurring direct losses in the amount of all costs incurred.

A catastrophic risk zone is an area of probable losses that exceed the critical level and can reach a value equal to the organization's own capital. A catastrophic risk can lead an organization or entrepreneur to collapse and bankruptcy. In addition, the category of catastrophic risk (regardless of the amount of property damage) should include the risk associated with a threat to life or health of people and the occurrence of economic disasters. A visual representation of the level of commercial risk gives a graphical representation of the dependence of the probability of losses on their magnitude - the risk curve (Fig. 2).

Figure 2. Risk curve.

The construction of such a curve is based on the hypothesis that profit as a random variable is subject to the normal distribution law and involves the following assumptions.

1. Most likely to receive a profit equal to the calculated value - Pr. The probability (Вр) of obtaining such a profit is maximum and the value of P can be considered the mathematical expectation of profit. The probability of making a profit, greater or less than the calculated one, decreases monotonically as deviations increase.

2. Losses are considered to be a decrease in profit (DP) in comparison with the calculated value. If real profit is equal to P, then DP = Pr - P.

The assumptions made are controversial to a certain extent and not always valid for all types of risks, but on the whole quite correctly reflect the most general patterns of changes in commercial risk and make it possible to construct a profit loss probability distribution curve, which is called the risk curve (Fig. 3).

Figure 3. Profit Loss Probability Distribution Curve

The main thing in assessing commercial risk is the ability to build a risk curve and determine zones and indicators of acceptable, critical and catastrophic risks. Thus, the risk analysis process includes the following stages:

* creation of predictive model;

* definition of risk variables;

* determination of the probability distribution of selected variables and determination of the range of possible values for each of them;

* establishing the presence or absence of correlations among risk variables;

* runs of models;

* analysis of the results.

risk variables. These are variables that are critical to the viability of the project, i.e. even small deviations from its expected value negatively affect the project. Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis is used to select variables. Sensitivity analysis measures the response of project results to changes in a particular project variable.

Uncertainty analysis helps to highlight high-risk variables. The set of expected values of the variable should be wide enough, but with boundaries: minimum and maximum values. Thus, a range of possible values is set for each risk variable. Two main categories of probability distribution can be distinguished: 1) normal, uniform and triangular distributions (they spread the probability within the same range, but with different degrees of concentration relative to the average values). These types of distribution are called symmetric; 2) stepwise and discrete distributions. With a discrete distribution, range intervals are allocated, each of which is assigned a certain probability weight in a stepwise manner (Fig. 4).

Figure 4. Probability distribution.

correlated variables. Determination of risk variables and giving them an appropriate probability distribution -- necessary condition conducting a risk analysis. With the successful completion of these two stages of analysis, with a reliable computer program, you can proceed to the modeling stage. At this stage, the computer generates a series of scenarios based on random numbers generated using specified probability distributions.

To analyze the available data, regression and correlation are usually used to make it easier to predict the dependent variable from the actual or hypothetical values of the independent variable. As a result of such analyzes, a regression equation and a correlation coefficient are derived. For risk analysis, this is just the input data, and the result is the information generated during the simulation. The task of correlation analysis in relation to risk analysis is to control the values of the dependent variable, allowing you to keep the correspondence with the opposite values of the independent variable.

Currently, the following methods of risk analysis are the most common: financial profit management

* statistical;

* expert assessments;

* analytical;

* combined method.

2. Method of expert assessments

This method involves the collection and study of estimates made by various specialists ( this enterprise or external experts) relating to the likelihood of occurrence various levels losses. Estimates are based on taking into account all financial risk factors, as well as on statistical data. The implementation of the method of expert assessments is much more complicated if the number of assessment indicators is small.

The variant and probable nature of many project processes enhances the role of expert judgment in determining economic and financial performance. Such estimates are used quite regularly both in the domestic and in foreign practice. During the transition period, the role of expert opinions in determining the relevant indicators increases significantly, since the indicators used for calculation are not directive. Appropriate expert assessment can be obtained both after conducting special studies and using the accumulated experience of leading experts. The increase in risk in the implementation of the project requires a more thorough assessment of the critical moments of its implementation. Many initial indicators, often competing with each other, involve the use of expert assessments to construct a project quality criterion. Therefore, the investment assessment system in modern conditions, by necessity, becomes “human-algorithmic”, and the role of a human expert is decisive. Expert assessment is the opinion of experts on a specific issue identified by a special method. An expert assessment is necessary for making a decision at the stage of preparation of the PTES. But already in the feasibility study, the number of expert assessments should be minimal. Staged risk assessment is based on the fact that the risks are determined for each stage of the project separately, and then the total result for the entire project is found. Usually, in each project, the following stages are distinguished: preparatory (fulfillment of the entire range of works necessary to start the project); construction (construction of necessary buildings and structures, purchase and installation of equipment); functioning (bringing the project to full capacity and making a profit). The nature of an investment project as something done in individually essentially leaves the only possibility for assessing the values of risks - the use of expert opinions. Each expert, working separately, is presented with a list of primary risks for all stages of the project and is invited to assess the likelihood of risks occurring in accordance with the following rating system:

0 - the risk is considered as insignificant;

25 - the risk is most likely not realized;

50 - nothing definite can be said about the occurrence of the event;

75 - the risk is most likely to occur;

100 - the risk is realized.

Expert evaluations are subjected to consistency analysis, which is performed according to certain rules. Firstly, the maximum allowable difference between the estimates of two experts for any factor should not exceed 50. Comparisons are made modulo (plus or minus sign is not taken into account), which allows eliminating unacceptable differences in experts' estimates of the likelihood of a particular risk. If the number of experts is more than three, then pairwise comparable opinions are evaluated. Secondly, to assess the consistency of expert opinions on the entire set of risks, a pair of experts is identified whose opinions differ most. For calculations, the assessment discrepancies are summed modulo and the result is divided by the number of simple risks. The quotient of division should not exceed 25. If contradictions are found between the opinions of experts (at least one of the above rules is not followed), they are discussed at meetings with experts. In the absence of contradictions, all expert estimates are reduced to the average (arithmetic mean), which is used in further calculations. A separate problem is the justification and evaluation of priorities. Its essence lies in the need to free experts who assess the probability of risk from assessing the importance of each individual event for the entire project. This work should be carried out by the project developers, namely the team that prepares the list of risks to be assessed. The task of the experts is to give an assessment of the risks. After determining the probabilities for simple risks (obtaining an average expert assessment), it is necessary to obtain an integral risk assessment of the entire project. To do this, the risks of each sub-stage or composition of the stages are first calculated: functioning, financial and economic, technological, social and environmental. Then the risks of each stage are calculated - preparatory, construction, functioning.

Another important method of risk research is modeling the choice problem using a "decision tree". This method involves the graphical construction of decision options that can be taken. The branches of the "tree" correlate subjective and objective assessments of possible events. Following along the constructed branches and using special methods for calculating probabilities, each path is evaluated and then the less risky one is chosen.

Conclusion

In general, the use of the expert method of risk assessment makes it possible to visually trace the influence of individual initial factors on the final result of the project, identify the most significant risk factors at the preliminary stage, and take actions to minimize them.

Risk should be understood as a consequence of an action or inaction, as a result of which there is real opportunity obtaining uncertain results of a different nature, both positively and negatively affecting the financial and economic activities of the enterprise. Most researchers note that enterprises should not avoid risk at the decision-making stage, but should be able to competently and professionally manage it. For this, a risk analysis is carried out.

Currently, the following methods of risk analysis are the most common:

* statistical;

* expert assessments;

* analytical;

* assessment of financial stability and solvency;

* assessing the feasibility of costs;

* analysis of the consequences of risk accumulation;

* method of using analogues;

* combined method.

The peer review method differs in the way information is collected to build the risk curve. This method involves the collection and study of estimates made by various experts (in the enterprise or external experts) regarding the probability of occurrence of various levels of losses. Estimates are based on taking into account all financial risk factors, as well as on statistical data.

Bibliography

1. Algin A.P. Risk and its role in public life. -- M.: Thought, 2004.

2. Algin A.M. Facets of economic risk. -- M.: Knowledge, 2005.

3. Balabanov I. T. Risk management. -- M.: Finance and statistics, 2006.

4. Blank I.A. Investment management: Training course. - K .: Elga-N, Nika-Center, 2005.

5. Grabovy P.G., Petrova S.I. Risks in modern business. - M.: ALANS, 2004.

6. Granaturov V. M. Economic risk. Essence, methods of measurement, ways of reduction. Business and Service, 2005.

7. Granaturov V.M. economic risk. -- M.: Business and service, 2008.

8. Degtyareva O.I., Kandinskaya O.A. Exchange business. -- M.: UNITI, 2009.

Hosted on Allbest.ru

...

1. Analysis and risk assessment

The problem of analysis, assessment and risk management in the implementation of production activities by enterprises is today one of the central problems in the Russian economy. In a planned economy, when unprofitable enterprises received subsidies through the redistribution of funds from profitable enterprises, these problems were not so urgent. Currently, if the company does not make a profit, and even more so if there is no return on investment, then the company is on the verge of bankruptcy. Therefore, the rational use of funds and taking into account the risk factor is the most important moment in the activity of the enterprise.
In the conditions of the formation of market relations, the role and importance of individual elements of the management process has changed radically, therefore, the theoretical approaches to their analysis, evaluation and organization at the enterprise are also changing.
The number of unresolved problems in the field of managing economic and industrial risks at industrial enterprises has increased markedly at the present time with the advent of a competitive environment.
At the same time, it is important to take into account that any of the objects and subjects of production activity is exposed to the systemic impact of risks of various hierarchical levels: geopolitical, political, social, economic, financial, industrial, commercial, and man-made.
The risk can be reduced, first of all, by careful preliminary study, calculation of operations, choice of a rational, less dangerous course of action. Correct accounting of risk factors and rational risk management at the enterprise contributes to its successful market activity, while other enterprises whose management does not pay due attention to risks, in a similar market situation, inevitably turn out to be unprofitable. Therefore, the issues of theory and practice of risk assessment and management have acquired particular relevance at the present time.
The purpose of risk analysis is to provide potential partners with the necessary data to make decisions about the appropriateness of participating in the project and provide for measures to protect against possible financial losses. Risk analysis is performed in the sequence shown in fig. one.

Figure 1. Sequence of risk analysis.

General principles of risk analysis. When talking about the need to take into account risk in project management, they usually mean its main participants: the customer, investor, performer (contractor) or seller, buyer, and also the insurance company. When analyzing the risk of any of the project participants, the following criteria are used, proposed by the famous American expert B. Berlimer:
risk losses are independent of each other;
loss in one direction from the “risk portfolio” does not necessarily increase the probability of loss in another (except for force majeure circumstances);
the maximum possible damage should not exceed the financial capabilities of the participant.
Risk analysis can be divided into two complementary types: qualitative and quantitative. Qualitative analysis can be relatively simple, its main task is to determine the risk factors, the stages of work during which the risk arises, i.e., to establish potential risk areas, and then identify all possible risks. Quantitative risk analysis, i.e., the numerical determination of the size of individual risks and the risk of the project as a whole, is a more complex problem. All factors, one way or another affecting the growth of the degree of risk in the project, can be conditionally divided into objective and subjective.

1.1. Risk zones and risk curve

An entrepreneur should always strive to take into account the possible risk and provide for measures to reduce its level and compensate for probable losses. This is the essence of risk management (risk management). The main goal of risk management (especially for the conditions of modern Russia) is to ensure that in the worst case we can talk about the lack of profit, but not about the bankruptcy of the organization. To assess the degree of acceptability of commercial risk, it is necessary to allocate risk zones depending on the expected amount of losses. The general scheme of risk zones is shown in fig. 2.

Figure 2. Risk zones.

The area in which losses are not expected, i.e., where the economic result of economic activity is positive, is called the risk-free zone. The zone of acceptable risk is the area within which the amount of probable losses does not exceed the expected profit and, therefore, commercial activity has economic feasibility. The boundary of the acceptable risk zone corresponds to the level of losses equal to the calculated profit. Critical risk zone - the area of possible losses exceeding the amount of expected profit up to the value of the total estimated revenue (the sum of costs and profit). Here, the entrepreneur runs the risk of not only not receiving any income, but also incurring direct losses in the amount of all costs incurred.
A catastrophic risk zone is an area of probable losses that exceed the critical level and can reach a value equal to the organization's own capital. A catastrophic risk can lead an organization or entrepreneur to collapse and bankruptcy. In addition, the category of catastrophic risk (regardless of the amount of property damage) should include the risk associated with a threat to life or health of people and the occurrence of economic disasters. A visual representation of the level of commercial risk is given by a graphical representation of the dependence of the probability of losses on their magnitude - the risk curve (Fig. 3).

Figure 3. Risk curve.

The construction of such a curve is based on the hypothesis that profit as a random variable is subject to the normal distribution law and involves the following assumptions.
1. Most likely to receive a profit equal to the calculated value - Pr. The probability (Вр) of obtaining such a profit is maximum and the value of P can be considered the mathematical expectation of profit. The probability of making a profit, greater or less than the calculated one, decreases monotonically as deviations increase.
2. Losses are considered to be a decrease in profit (?P) in comparison with the calculated value. If real profit is equal to P, then? P \u003d Pr - P.
The assumptions made are controversial to a certain extent and not always valid for all types of risks, but on the whole they quite correctly reflect the most general patterns of changes in commercial risk and make it possible to construct a profit loss probability distribution curve, which is called the risk curve (Fig. 4).

Figure 4. Profit loss probability distribution curve.

The main thing in assessing commercial risk is the ability to build a risk curve and determine zones and indicators of acceptable, critical and catastrophic risks. Thus, the risk analysis process includes the following stages:
creation of a predictive model;
definition of risk variables;
determining the probability distribution of the selected variables and determining the range of possible values for each of them;
establishing the presence or absence of correlations among risk variables;
model runs;
analysis of results.
risk variables. These are variables that are critical to the viability of the project, i.e. even small deviations from its expected value negatively affect the project. Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis is used to select variables. Sensitivity analysis measures the response of project results to changes in a particular project variable.
Uncertainty analysis helps to highlight high-risk variables. The set of expected values of the variable should be wide enough, but with boundaries: minimum and maximum values. Thus, a range of possible values is set for each risk variable. Two main categories of probability distribution can be distinguished: 1) normal, uniform and triangular distributions (they spread the probability within the same range, but with different degrees of concentration relative to the average values). These types of distribution are called symmetric; 2) stepwise and discrete distributions. With a discrete distribution, range intervals are allocated, each of which is assigned a certain probability weight in a stepwise manner (Fig. 5).

Figure 5. Probability distribution.

correlated variables. Determination of risk variables and giving them an appropriate probability distribution is a necessary condition for risk analysis. With the successful completion of these two stages of analysis, with a reliable computer program, you can proceed to the modeling stage. At this stage, the computer generates a series of scenarios based on random numbers generated using specified probability distributions.
To analyze the available data, regression and correlation are usually used to make it easier to predict the dependent variable from the actual or hypothetical values of the independent variable. As a result of such analyzes, a regression equation and a correlation coefficient are derived. For risk analysis, this is just the initial data, and the result is the information generated during the simulation. The task of correlation analysis in relation to risk analysis is to control the values of the dependent variable, allowing you to keep the correspondence with the opposite values of the independent variable.
Currently, the following methods of risk analysis are the most common:
statistical;
expert assessments;
analytical;
estimates financial stability and solvency;
cost feasibility assessments;
analysis of the consequences of risk accumulation;
method of using analogues;
combined method.

1.2. Methods of expert assessments

In an unstable environment, when the repetition of the economic situation for an entrepreneur in the same conditions is practically impossible and there is no information about the possibility of risk events, you can use subjective methods expert assessments, judgments and personal experience an expert, the opinion of a financial manager, etc.
Expert assessment methods allow you to determine the levels of financial risks in the event that the enterprise does not have the necessary information for making calculations or comparisons. These methods are based on a survey of experts (qualified specialists from insurance, tax, financial authorities, investment managers, employees of relevant specialized firms) with subsequent statistical processing of the survey results. The survey should focus on certain types risks identified in this operation.
Expert risk assessment is not a decision, but only useful information to help you make an informed decision. Only the risk manager can decide on the level of risk based on his preferences, and he is responsible for them.
Expert assessment methods are widely used in determining the levels of inflationary, interest rate, emission, currency, investment and some other types of financial risks.
This method involves the collection and study of estimates made by various specialists (in-house or external experts) regarding the probability of occurrence of various levels of losses. Estimates are based on taking into account all financial risk factors, as well as on statistical data. The implementation of the method of expert assessments is much more complicated if the number of assessment indicators is small.
The variant and probable nature of many project processes enhances the role of expert judgment in determining economic and financial performance. Such estimates are used quite regularly both in domestic and foreign practice. During the transition period, the role of expert opinions in determining the relevant indicators increases significantly, since the indicators used for calculation are not directive. Appropriate expert assessment can be obtained both after conducting special studies and using the accumulated experience of leading experts. The increase in risk in the implementation of the project requires a more thorough assessment of the critical moments of its implementation. Many initial indicators, often competing with each other, involve the use of expert assessments to construct a project quality criterion. Therefore, the investment assessment system in modern conditions, by necessity, becomes “human-algorithmic”, and the role of a human expert is decisive.
Expert assessment is the opinion of experts on a specific issue identified by a special methodology. An expert assessment is necessary for making a decision at the stage of preparation of the PTES. But already in the feasibility study, the number of expert assessments should be minimal. Staged risk assessment is based on the fact that the risks are determined for each stage of the project separately, and then the total result for the entire project is found. Usually, in each project, the following stages are distinguished: preparatory (fulfillment of the entire range of works necessary to start the project); construction (construction of necessary buildings and structures, purchase and installation of equipment); functioning (bringing the project to full capacity and making a profit). The nature of an investment project as something done on an individual basis essentially leaves the only possibility for assessing risk values - the use of expert opinions. Each expert, working separately, is presented with a list of primary risks for all stages of the project and is invited to assess the likelihood of risks occurring in accordance with the following rating system:
0 - the risk is considered insignificant;
25 - the risk is most likely not realized;
50 - nothing definite about the occurrence of the event
cannot be said;
75 - the risk is most likely to manifest itself;
100 - the risk is realized.
Expert evaluations are subjected to consistency analysis, which is performed according to certain rules. Firstly, the maximum allowable difference between the estimates of two experts for any factor should not exceed 50. Comparisons are made modulo (plus or minus sign is not taken into account), which allows eliminating unacceptable differences in experts' estimates of the likelihood of a particular risk. If the number of experts is more than three, then pairwise comparable opinions are evaluated. Secondly, to assess the consistency of expert opinions on the entire set of risks, a pair of experts is identified whose opinions differ most. For calculations, the assessment discrepancies are summed modulo and the result is divided by the number of simple risks. The quotient of division should not exceed 25. If contradictions are found between the opinions of experts (at least one of the above rules is not followed), they are discussed at meetings with experts. In the absence of contradictions, all expert estimates are reduced to the average (arithmetic mean), which is used in further calculations.
A separate problem is the justification and evaluation of priorities. Its essence lies in the need to free experts who assess the probability of risk from assessing the importance of each individual event for the entire project. This work should be carried out by the project developers, namely the team that prepares the list of risks to be assessed. The task of the experts is to give an assessment of the risks. After determining the probabilities for simple risks (obtaining an average expert assessment), it is necessary to obtain an integral risk assessment of the entire project. To do this, the risks of each sub-stage or composition of the stages are first calculated: functioning, financial and economic, technological, social and environmental. Then the risks of each stage are calculated - preparatory, construction, functioning.
Another important method of risk research is modeling the choice problem using a "decision tree". This method involves the graphical construction of decision options that can be taken. The branches of the "tree" correlate subjective and objective assessments of possible events. Following along the constructed branches and using special methods for calculating probabilities, each path is evaluated and then the less risky one is chosen.
There are no ready-made recipes in risk management and there cannot be. But knowing his methods, techniques, ways of solving certain economic problems, one can achieve tangible success in a particular situation.
A manager's intuition and insight play a special role in solving risky tasks. Intuition is the ability to directly, as if suddenly, without logical thinking, to find correct solution Problems. Intuition is an indispensable component of the creative process. Insight is the consciousness of solving a specific problem. At the moment of insight, the decision is clearly perceived, but this clarity is often of a short duration. Therefore, a conscious fixation of the decision is necessary.
In cases where the risk cannot be calculated, risky decisions are made using heuristics, which is a set of logical techniques and methodological rules for theoretical research and finding the truth. In other words, these are ways of solving particularly complex problems. Risk management has its own system of heuristic rules and techniques for making decisions under risk (Fig. 6).

Figure 6. Heuristic rules for making a risky decision.

2. Risk management
In a market economy, producers, sellers, buyers act independently in a competitive environment, that is, at their own peril and risk. Their financial future is therefore unpredictable and little predictable. Risk management is a system for assessing risk, managing risk and financial relationships that arise in the course of a business. The risk can be managed using a variety of measures that make it possible to predict the occurrence of a risk event to a certain extent and take timely measures to reduce the degree of risk.
The degree and magnitude of risk can really be influenced through the financial mechanism, which is carried out using the methods of strategy and financial management. This kind of risk management mechanism is risk management. Risk management is based on the organization of work to determine and reduce the degree of risk.
Risk management is a system for managing risk and economic (more precisely, financial) relations that arise in the process of this management, and includes the strategy and tactics of management actions.
Management strategy refers to the directions and methods of using funds to achieve the goal. Each method corresponds to a certain set of rules and restrictions for adoption. best solution. The strategy helps to concentrate efforts on various solutions that do not contradict the general line of the strategy and discard all other options. After reaching the set goal, this strategy ceases to exist, since new goals put forward the task of developing a new strategy.
Tactics - practical methods and techniques of management to achieve a set goal in specific conditions. The task of management tactics is to choose the most optimal solution and the most constructive management methods and techniques in a given economic situation.
Risk management as a management system consists of two subsystems: the managed subsystem - the object of management and the management subsystem - the subject of management. The object of management in risk management is risky investments of capital and economic relations between business entities in the process of risk realization. Such economic relations include relations between the insured and the insurer, the borrower and the lender, between entrepreneurs, competitors, etc.
The subject of management in risk management is a group of managers (financial manager, insurance specialist, etc.), which, through various options for its impact, performs the purposeful functioning of the management object. This process can be carried out only if the necessary information is circulated between the subject and the object of management. The management process always involves the receipt, transfer, processing and practical use of information. The acquisition of information that is reliable and sufficient under specific conditions plays a major role, as it helps to make the right decision on actions in a risk environment. Information support consists of various kinds of information: statistical, economic, commercial, financial, etc.
This information includes information about the probability of a particular insured event, event, the presence and magnitude of demand for goods, capital, financial stability and solvency of its customers, partners, competitors, etc.
An economic entity must be able not only to collect information, but to store and retrieve it if necessary. The best card file for collecting information is a computer that has both a good memory and the ability to quickly find the information you need.
There are the following functions of risk management:
- the management object, which includes the risk resolution organization; risk capital investments; work to reduce the magnitude of the risk; risk insurance process; economic relations and connections between the subjects of the economic process.
- the subject of management, within which forecasting, organization, coordination, regulation, stimulation, control.
Before deciding on a risky capital investment, the financial manager must determine the maximum amount of loss for this risk; compare it with the amount of invested capital; compare it with all your own financial resources and determine whether the loss of this capital will lead to the bankruptcy of the investor. The amount of loss from capital investment can be equal to the amount given capital, be less than or greater than it.
The organization of risk management involves the definition of a risk management body, which can be a financial manager, a risk manager or an appropriate management apparatus, say, a risk capital investment department, which should perform the following functions:
- carry out venture and portfolio investments, that is, risky investments in accordance with current legislation and the charter of the economic entity;
- develop a program of risky investment activities;
- collect, analyze, process and store information about the environment;
- determine the degree and cost of risks, strategy and management techniques;
- develop a program of risky decisions and organize its implementation, including monitoring and analysis of results;
- carry out insurance activities, conclude insurance and reinsurance contracts, conduct insurance and reinsurance operations;
- develop conditions for insurance and reinsurance, set tariff rates for insurance operations;
- issue a guarantee on the guarantee of domestic and foreign companies, make compensation for losses at their expense, entrust other persons with the performance of similar functions abroad;
- maintain appropriate accounting, statistical and operational reporting on risky capital investments.
Risk management strategy is the art of risk management in an uncertain economic situation, based on risk prediction and risk reduction techniques. This strategy includes the rules on the basis of which risky decisions are made and ways to choose their option.
The following rules apply in the risk management strategy:
- maximum win
- the optimal probability of the result,
- optimal variability of the result,
- the optimal combination of gain and risk.
The essence of the rule of maximum gain is that from the possible options for risky investments of capital, the option is chosen that gives the greatest efficiency of the result at a minimum or acceptable risk for the investor.
The desire for the optimal combination of the size of the gain and the amount of risk lies in the fact that the manager evaluates the expected values of the gain and risk and decides to invest in the event that allows you to get the expected gain and at the same time avoid high risk. The decision-making rules for risky investment of capital are supplemented by various ways of choosing a solution option. Among the latest choices:
- a solution, provided that the probabilities of possible economic situations are known;
- a solution option, provided that the probabilities of possible economic situations are unknown, but there are estimates of their relative values,
- a solution option, provided that the probabilities of possible economic situations are unknown, but the main directions for evaluating the results of capital investment are known.
In the first case, the average expected value of the rate of return on invested capital for each option is determined and the option with the highest rate of return is selected. In the second, by means of an expert assessment, the value of the probability of the conditions of economic situations is established and the average expected value of the rate of return on invested capital is calculated. In the third case, there are three directions for evaluating the results of capital investment: choosing the maximum result from the minimum value; selection of the minimum risk value from the maximum risks; choice medium size result. The calculation for risk assessment and the choice of the optimal investment option is made using mathematical methods that are studied by such disciplines as econometrics, financial management, and economic analysis.
The central place in the assessment of entrepreneurial risk is occupied by the analysis and forecasting of possible losses of resources in the course of entrepreneurial activity. This does not mean the expenditure of resources, objectively determined by the nature and scale of entrepreneurial actions, but random, unforeseen, but potentially possible losses arising from the deviation of the real course of entrepreneurship from the planned scenario.
If a random event has a double impact on the final results of entrepreneurship, has adverse and favorable consequences, then both should be equally taken into account when assessing risk. In other words, when determining the total possible losses, the gain that accompanies them should be subtracted from the calculated losses.
losses that may be entrepreneurial activity, it is advisable to divide into material, labor, financial, loss of time, special types of losses. Material types of losses are manifested in additional costs unforeseen by the entrepreneurial project or direct losses of equipment, property, products, raw materials, energy, etc. In relation to each individual of the listed types of losses, their own units of measurement are used. It is most natural to measure material losses in the same units in which the quantity of a given type is measured. material resources, i.e. in physical units of weight, volume, area, etc.
However, it is not possible to bring together the losses measured in different units and express them in one value. You can not add kilograms and meters. Therefore, the calculation of losses in value terms, in monetary units, is inevitable. To do this, losses in the physical dimension are converted into a cost dimension by multiplying by the unit price of the corresponding material resource. For material resources, the cost of which is known, the losses can immediately be estimated in monetary terms. Having an estimate of the probable losses for each of the individual types of material resources in terms of value, it is realistic to bring them together, while observing the rules for dealing with random variables and their probabilities.
Labor losses represent the loss of working time caused by random, unforeseen circumstances. In direct measurement, labor losses are expressed in man-hours, man-days, or simply hours of working time. The translation of labor losses into value, monetary terms is carried out by multiplying labor hours by the cost (price) of one hour.
Financial loss is a direct monetary loss associated with unforeseen payments, payment of fines, payment of additional taxes, loss of funds and valuable papers. In addition, financial losses may occur in the event of a shortfall or non-receipt of money from the provided sources, in case of non-repayment of debts, non-payment by the buyer of the products supplied to him, a decrease in revenue due to a decrease in prices for products and services sold. Special types monetary damage associated with inflation, changes in the exchange rate of the ruble, additional
etc.................

2.3. Expert risk assessment methods

The general scheme of expert surveys includes the following main stages:

1) selection of experts and formation of expert groups;

2) formation of questions and compilation of questionnaires;

3) work with experts;

4) formation of rules for determining the total marks based on the marks of individual experts;

5) analysis and processing of expert assessments.

At the first stage, based on the objectives of the expert survey, issues are resolved regarding the structure of the expert group, the number of experts and their individual qualities, i.e. the requirements for the specialization and qualification of experts, the required number of experts of each specialization and their total number in the group are determined.

Estimates of the size of the expert group are made on the basis of the following considerations.

The size of the group should not be small, since in this case the meaning of the formation of expert assessments determined by a group of specialists will be lost. In addition, group peer reviews would be heavily influenced by the score of each peer.

With an increase in the group of experts, although these shortcomings are eliminated, there is a danger of the emergence of new ones. So, with a very large number of experts, the assessment of each of them individually has almost no effect on the group assessment. Moreover, the increase in the size of the expert group does not always lead to an increase in the reliability of estimates. Often, the expansion of a group of experts is possible only at the expense of low-skilled specialists, which in turn can lead to a decrease in the reliability of group estimates. Simultaneously with the increase in the number of experts, the difficulties associated with coordinating the work of the group and processing the results of the survey increase. It should be noted that when finding estimates by expert means, in addition to the error introduced by the lack of information about the object under study and the insufficient competence of experts, an error of a completely different kind is possible, due to the interest of experts in the results of the examination, which will necessarily affect their reliability. The presence of such errors can significantly distort the estimates.

elimination these deficiencies achieved using appropriate methods and primarily through proper organization expert procedure, from the selection of experts to the processing of their opinions.

The characteristic features of the methods of expert assessments and models for their implementation as a tool for the scientific solution of complex non-formalizable problems are, firstly, the scientifically based organization of all stages of the examination, ensuring the efficiency of work at each of the stages and, secondly, the use of quantitative methods as in the organization of the examination, and when evaluating the judgments of experts on the basis of formal group processing of the results of their opinions. These features distinguish the methods of expert assessments from the usual, long-known expertise used in various fields of human activity.

When selecting experts, the restriction regarding the correspondence of the goals of the experts to the goals of the expert survey should be taken into account, i.e. it is necessary to establish whether there is a tendency for individual experts to bias the events under consideration. To do this, it is desirable to identify the potential possible goals of experts that contradict the goals of obtaining objective results.

Analyzing the previous activities of experts, it is necessary to find out the reasons that lead to the desire to overestimate or underestimate the assessments in such a way as to influence group assessments in a direction desirable for oneself or for other persons.

The main methods of expert assessments are the following:

1) methods of collective work of the expert group;

2) methods for obtaining individual opinions of members of the expert group.

Teamwork Methods expert group involve the formation of a common opinion in the course of a joint discussion of the consequences of entrepreneurial activity. These methods are sometimes referred to as direct collective opinion methods. These include brainstorming, scripting, business games, meetings, and judgment.

Methods for obtaining an individual opinion members of the expert group are based on the preliminary collection of information from experts interviewed independently of each other, with subsequent processing of the data obtained. These methods include methods of questionnaire survey, interview, Delphi.

The means of collecting information from experts is a questionnaire - a questionnaire that must meet a number of requirements such as simplicity and unambiguity in understanding the text, brevity of presentation, completeness of presentation, illustrativeness, uniformity.

The survey of experts is carried out in accordance with the chosen method of expert assessments. Among the methods of expert assessments as a scientific tool for difficult-to-formalizable tasks of business risk analysis, the most acceptable method is the Delphi method, or the method of the Delphi oracle. This method represents an iterative questionnaire procedure. At the same time, the requirement of the absence of personal contacts between experts and providing them with complete information on all the results of assessments after each round of the survey is observed, while maintaining the anonymity of assessments, arguments and criticism.

The procedure of the method includes several successive stages (rounds) of the survey. At the first stage, an individual survey of experts is conducted, usually in the form of questionnaires. Experts give answers without arguing them. Then the results of the survey are processed, and the collective opinion of the group of experts is formed, the arguments in favor of various judgments are identified and generalized. At the second stage, all information is communicated to the experts, and they are asked to revise their assessments and, if they disagree with the collective judgment, explain its reasons. The new estimates are processed again and the transition to the next stage is carried out. Practice shows that after three or four stages, the experts' answers stabilize, and the survey procedure should be terminated at this point.

The advantage of the Delphi method is the use feedback during the survey, which significantly increases the objectivity and reliability of expert assessments of the degree of risk. However, this method requires considerable time to implement the entire multi-stage procedure.

The processing of the results of the received expert information is determined by the method of its receipt and the type of presentation (qualitative, quantitative). When processing expert information, the tasks of assessing are set: the collective opinion of the expert group; consistency of expert opinions; expert competence. When solving the first problem, if there is the necessary information potential, methods of mathematical statistics based on data averaging are used. If the information potential is insufficient, the processing of the results is based on the methods of qualitative analysis.

If there is information potential, the collective opinion of the expert group can be expressed in the following forms:

1) quantitative assessments in physical units of measurement or in the form of a ratio;

2) scores;

3) pairwise comparisons;

4) groupings (sorting);

5) ranking.

The rules for questioning experts contain a number of provisions that are mandatory for everyone. These rules should ensure that the conditions conducive to the formation of an objective opinion by experts are observed. These conditions include:

1) the independence of the formation by experts of their own opinion about the events being assessed;

2) the convenience of working with the proposed questionnaires (questions are formulated in generally accepted terms and should exclude any semantic ambiguity, etc.);

3) logical correspondence of questions to the structure of the object of the survey;

4) acceptable time spent on answering the questions of the questionnaire, convenient time for receiving questions and issuing answers;

5) maintaining anonymity of answers for members of the expert group;

6) providing experts with the required information.

To ensure that these conditions are met, rules for conducting the survey and organizing the work of the expert group should be developed.

Depending on the nature of the object under study, on the degree of its formalization and the possibility of attracting the necessary experts, the procedure for working with them may be different, but basically it consists of the following 3 stages.

At the first stage, experts are involved on an individual basis in order to clarify the object model, its parameters and indicators subject to expert evaluation; clarify the wording of questions and terminology in the questionnaires; agree on the feasibility of one or another form of presentation of tables of expert assessments; clarify expert groups.

At the second stage, questionnaires are sent to the experts with an explanatory letter, which describes the purpose of the work, the structure and procedure for constructing tables with examples.

If it is possible to bring experts together, then the goals and objectives of the survey, as well as all questions related to the survey, can be stated orally. Required condition This form of expert survey is the subsequent self-filling of questionnaires subject to the rules of the survey.

The third stage of work with experts is carried out after receiving the results of the survey in the process of processing and analyzing the results.

At this stage, in the form of a consultation, experts usually receive all the necessary information that is required to refine the data and their final analysis.

Rational use of information received from experts is possible if it is converted into a form convenient for further analysis aimed at preparing and making decisions.

There are several ways to use an expert group. One of them (the method of ratings matching) is that each expert gives an assessment independently of the others, and then, using certain techniques, these assessments are combined into one generalized (agreed) one.

For example, if we are talking about the probability of a risk event (p) and i-th expert indicates the number pi for this probability, then simplest way obtaining a generalized estimate consists in calculating the average probability:

where m is the number of experts participating in the examination.

In the Delphi method, the median of the assessments of the last round of the expert survey is taken as a generalized opinion.

You can also calculate the weighted average of the probability if you try to take into account the weight (competence) of the expert himself, which is determined on the basis of previous activities (the number of correct answers to total), or on the basis of other methods - self-assessment by an expert of his knowledge in the field of questions asked, qualifications, position, academic title, etc.:

where h is the weight attributed to the i-th expert.

There are various methods for assessing the competence of an expert, the choice of which is determined both by the nature of the problem being solved and the possibilities of conducting a specific expert survey. In the general case, the values of the weight attributed to the i-th expert are interpreted as the probability of giving them a reliable estimate. In this case 0< h < 1.

Depending on the specifics of the expert survey, the object of study and the methodology used for processing expert data, the estimates given by experts may have a different measurement scale: from 0 to 1, from 0 to 10, from 0 to 100. insurance risk assessment uses a scale from 0 to 100 points. At the same time, there is no fundamental difference in the measurement scales; the choice of one or another of them is largely determined by the taste of the researcher conducting the expert survey. The accepted scale of measurement can to some extent influence the choice of methods for analyzing and processing expert opinions.

When analyzing the collected expert data in accordance with the objectives of the study and the accepted models, it is necessary to present the information received from the experts in a form convenient for decision-making (order the objects - options, indicators, factors, etc.), and also determine the consistency of the actions of the experts and reliability of expert assessments.

So, for example, the risks identified in the process of qualitative analysis must be presented in order of their importance (the degree of their possible impact on the level of losses) or risk reduction options - in order of their preference, etc.

There are a number of ordering methods, each of which has its own advantages and disadvantages, as well as the area of effective application. The most common of these are ranking, direct evaluation, sequential comparison, pairwise comparison.

An important point of expert procedures is the assessment of the consistency of the actions of experts and the reliability of expert assessments.

As noted, the existing methods for determining the reliability of expert assessments are based on the assumption that if the actions of experts are coordinated, the reliability of assessments is guaranteed.

Most often, for these purposes, the concordance (consent) coefficient is used, the value of which makes it possible to judge the degree of agreement between the opinions of experts and, as a result, the reliability of their assessments. The concordance coefficient (W) is determined from the expression:

where: q 2 ? is the actual variance of the total (ordered) estimates given by the experts;

q 2 max is the variance of the total (ordered) estimates in the case when the opinions of experts completely coincide.

The value of the concordance coefficient can vary from 0 to 1. At W = 0, there is no consistency; there is no connection between the assessments of various experts. At W = 1, the consensus of experts' opinions is complete.

To make a decision on the use of estimates received from experts, it is necessary that the concordance coefficient be greater than the specified (normative) value. You can take W = 0.5. It is believed that when W is greater than 0.5, the actions of experts are more coordinated than not coordinated.

Consider the definition of the concordance coefficient in the following simplified example. Let the process of qualitative analysis identify 5 types of risk that the project may be exposed to in the process of its implementation. The experts are faced with the task of ranking these risks (in order of their importance) according to the degree of their possible impact on the level of losses.

In the general case, the concordance coefficient is determined from the expression:

where a is the score assigned to the i-th object j an expert;

m is the number of evaluated objects;

n is the number of experts.

Criteria are also used to assess the likelihood that the consensus of experts was not the result of random variations in their opinions.

If, in accordance with the accepted criteria, the opinions of experts can be considered agreed, then the assessments given by them are accepted and used in the process of preparing and implementing management decisions.

It is known that the average value of the total score for m objects assigned by n experts is 1/2n (m + l).

This text is an introductory piece. From the book Crisis Management: Lecture Notes author Babushkina Elena

3. Methods for assessing investment risk The most urgent problem crisis management in Russia now the development of investment processes. At the moment, there is a tendency for foreign investors to distrust the domestic investment structure. Process

From the book Marketing in Socio-Cultural Service and Tourism author Yulia Bezrutchenko

3.3. Expert assessments as a source of marketing information The essence of the method of expert assessments consists in the implementation by experts of an intuitive-logical consideration of the question posed, in the quantitative assessment of opinions and the formal processing of the results obtained.

From the book Marketing: Cheat Sheet author author unknown

From book Management decisions author Lapygin Yuri Nikolaevich

13.4. Types of efficiency and evaluation methods The activity of any management system is focused and aimed at obtaining certain results. Appropriate resources are spent to achieve them. The effectiveness of strategic change can be determined if

From the book Financial Management. Crib author Zagorodnikov S.V.

22 ASSET VALUATION METHODS IN FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT In the practice of financial management, several methods of assessing the total value of assets are used.1. The balance valuation method is carried out on the basis of the data of the last reporting balance sheet and has a number of

From book Innovation management: tutorial author Mukhamedyarov A. M.

From the book Project Management for Dummies author Portney Stanley I.

Chapter 5 Resource Estimation Techniques In this chapter… How to Determine Staff Qualifications and Capabilities How many people are required to work on a project Performing Multiple Responsibilities Planning Other Resources Planning Project Budget Me

From the book Financial Management is Easy [Basic Course for Managers and Beginners] author Gerasimenko Alexey

From the book Organizational Risk Management author Yermasova Natalya B.

From the book Systematic Problem Solving author Lapygin Yuri Nikolaevich

2.2. Statistical methods for risk assessment Risk management means a correct understanding of the degree of risk that constantly threatens people, property, financial results economic activity. It is important for an entrepreneur to know real value risk,

From the book Internet Marketing 3.0. No Russian roulette! author Raitsin Mikhail Alexandrovich

12.2. Expert methods An expert is a person who no longer thinks - he knows. Frank Hubbard The method of expert evaluation refers to a toolkit for quantitative assessment of the quality of alternatives in a weakly formalized problem situation. For example, such

From the book Sales Management author Petrov Konstantin Nikolaevich

Summary: Expert method of risk assessment. Expert judgment in occupational risk analysis Process risk analysis by expert method example

Send your good work in the knowledge base is simple. Use the form below

Introduction

The need to improve the risk assessment of an enterprise and, in particular, a research and production enterprise in market conditions predetermined the relevance of the research topic.

1. Risk zones and risk curve

Figure 1. Risk zones.

Figure 2. Risk curve.

The construction of such a curve is based on the hypothesis that profit as a random variable is subject to the normal distribution law and involves the following assumptions.

2. Losses are considered to be a decrease in profit (DP) in comparison with the calculated value. If real profit is equal to P, then DP = Pr - P.

Figure 3. Profit Loss Probability Distribution Curve

The main thing in assessing commercial risk is the ability to build a risk curve and determine zones and indicators of acceptable, critical and catastrophic risks. Thus, the risk analysis process includes the following stages:

* creation of predictive model;

* definition of risk variables;

* determination of the probability distribution of selected variables and determination of the range of possible values ​​for each of them;

* establishing the presence or absence of correlations among risk variables;

* runs of models;

* analysis of the results.

Figure 4. Probability distribution.

Currently, the following methods of risk analysis are the most common: financial profit management

* statistical;

* expert assessments;

* analytical;

* combined method.

2. Method of expert assessments

0 - the risk is considered as insignificant;

25 - the risk is most likely not realized;

50 - nothing definite can be said about the occurrence of the event;

75 - the risk is most likely to occur;

100 - the risk is realized.

Conclusion

In general, the use of the expert method of risk assessment makes it possible to visually trace the influence of individual initial factors on the final result of the project, identify the most significant risk factors at the preliminary stage, and take actions to minimize them.

Currently, the following methods of risk analysis are the most common:

* statistical;

* expert assessments;

* analytical;

* assessment of financial stability and solvency;

* assessing the feasibility of costs;

* analysis of the consequences of risk accumulation;

* method of using analogues;

* combined method.

Bibliography

1. Algin A.P. Risk and its role in public life. -- M.: Thought, 2004.

2. Algin A.M. Facets of economic risk. -- M.: Knowledge, 2005.

3. Balabanov I. T. Risk management. -- M.: Finance and statistics, 2006.

4. Blank I.A. Investment management: Training course. - K .: Elga-N, Nika-Center, 2005.

5. Grabovy P.G., Petrova S.I. Risks in modern business. - M.: ALANS, 2004.

6. Granaturov V. M. Economic risk. Essence, methods of measurement, ways of reduction. Business and Service, 2005.

7. Granaturov V.M. economic risk. -- M.: Business and service, 2008.

8. Degtyareva O.I., Kandinskaya O.A. Exchange business. -- M.: UNITI, 2009.

Hosted on Allbest.ru

Similar Documents

Introduction

1. Analysis and risk assessment

1.1. Risk zones and risk curve

1. Analysis and risk assessment

1.1. Risk zones and risk curve

1.2. Methods of expert assessments

Popular

* determination of the probability distribution of selected variables and determination of the range of possible values for each of them;