Moscow State University of Printing Arts. Planning methodology

Planning Methods is a system of rules and procedures for performing various planning tasks in order to develop plan targets and develop appropriate rational solutions.

Planning methods correspond to the planning methodology and use the laws of formal, mathematical and dialectical logic.

A variety of planning methods complicates the possibilities of their classification; the following classification features of planning methods can be distinguished:

By approach;

By Areas of use,

The clarity of the information provided.

According to the approach, they distinguish common methods planning, widely used for different subjects and objects of planning, and functional, mainly determined by the scope.

General methods include:

Balance;

Normative;

Program target;

Experimental;

Method of planning according to technical and economic factors.

balance method involves the development of balances based on a combination of resource needs and sources of their coverage. There are material, financial, labor balances, balances of equipment and production capacities. The input-output balance is known in science and practice as the input-output method developed by V. Leontiev (USA).

Normative method uses a system of norms and regulations, is effective with a progressive regulatory framework.

Program target method used in planning large-scale programs in the field social development, scientific and technological progress, allows:

Allocate resources to the implementation of the most important social and technical programs;

Ensure end-to-end planning, which is especially important for the implementation of technical programs (from ideas to implementation in production);

Link the implementation of technical and socio-economic programs.

Experimental methods involve setting up an experiment and using its results in economic activity.

Method of planning according to technical and economic factors is used when planning labor productivity, costs, it has more narrow area application than other methods of this group.

This planning method takes into account the following factors:

Technical (implementation new technology and technology, new materials, reconstruction and technological re-equipment, etc.);

Improving the organization of production and labor;

Change in the volume of production, nomenclature and range of products;

inflation;

Special factors related to the specifics of production.

According to the scope, there are methods related to analysis, evaluation, forecasting, decision-making and implementation of plans.

Program-target planning methods at the level of enterprise divisions are not very effective, since they are developed for the entire enterprise, and enterprise divisions are considered in general. target program. Experimental methods at the state level have a high degree risk when using.

The planning method based on technical and economic factors is mainly used for enterprises and their divisions.

Analysis methods include:

System Analysis;

Screenwriting method;

Network planning method;

Functional cost analysis (FSA);

Methods of economic and statistical analysis.

System analysis answers the following basic questions:

How to highlight the system of activities that we are going to plan;

What characterizes the scope and conditions of the enterprise;

How is the firm organized?

What are the features of the company's strategy and tactics policy;

Which firms are competitors and what is their market share;

What laws and government regulations affect the business?

network planning they call a graphic representation of a certain set of work performed, reflecting their logical sequence, the existing relationship and the planned duration. The network planning system is used in various areas of production and entrepreneurial activity:

For execution marketing research;

For planning and organizing research and development work;

For the implementation of organizational and technical projects;

For the construction and installation of building objects;

For repair and modernization of technological equipment;

For the restructuring of existing production;

For management innovative activities enterprises.

The use of network planning methods allows you to:

Reasonably choose the development goals of the enterprise and its divisions;

Efficiently distribute production volumes according to calendar terms and rationally use the limited resources available at the enterprise;

To predict the progress of the main stages of work;

Conduct multivariate economic analysis;

Make adjustments to work schedules;

Promptly receive the necessary planned data on the actual state of the progress of work;

Ensure that the long-term strategy is linked in the planning process
with the company's short-term goals.

The main parameters of network diagrams are work, path, critical path, time reserves, early and late dates of the event.

Functional cost analysis- this is a technical and economic method of finding, under a special program, reserves to reduce the costs of production and operation of products by studying the main and auxiliary functions of the object of analysis and engineering search.

FSA program- a set of works that ensure a systematic systematic search for sources of excess costs in the object of analysis, finding technical solutions to eliminate them and implementing recommendations based on the results of the analysis.

Methods of economic and statistical analysis very diverse - analysis of samples, correlation, spectral, cluster, discrete and factor analyses.

Evaluation methods include all methods that allow assessing the situation on the basis of the analysis - these are product, cost, efficiency assessments, the goal tree method.

Forecasting methods are associated with two ways of thinking: inductive and deductive. Inductive- building reasoning from the particular to the general, deductive- From general to specific.

Search forecasting methods correspond to the inductive approach, normative forecasting methods correspond to the deductive approach. In exploratory forecasting, the state of an object in the future is determined by regularities identified by particular results of the experience of its behavior in the past and present. Normative forecasting is focused on the fact that the ultimate goal of the development of an object in the future is set, and the content of the forecast is to determine private ways, means and timing to achieve the goal.

Search forecasting- brainstorming method, Delphi method, business game method.

Method "brain attack" is based on the collective generation of ideas by a group of highly qualified experts, the method Delphi– consistent conduct of absentee “brainstorming” by a group of experts, geographically remote. Method business game uses brainstorming approaches and is conducted according to pre-prepared game rules.

Normative forecasting:

Extrapolation of trends;

Morphological analysis;

simulation models.

At the heart of the method extrapolation of trends lies the assumption that the law of growth, or the law of any change that has taken place in the past and present, will operate identically or with some changes in the future.

Method Essence morphological analysis is to identify and calculate all possible solutions to a particular problem. Usage simulation models allows under computer conditions to choose the most appropriate forecast option based on a combination of goals, constraints and resources.

Method expert assessments(point) widely used for planning, analysis and forecasting purposes. Its essence is the objectification of a set of subjective opinions, the method was first used in the United States to assess the defense power of the USSR, and later by them to assess the prospects for the development of their national economy.

Target tree method It is also used in forecasting, as it is built on the principles of normative forecasting. This method not only provides flexibility in adjusting the goals and scenario, but also allows you to plan the decision-making process.

Methods for making decisions and implementing plans:

Economic and mathematical models;

Decision tables method;

Method for constructing a decision tree;

Method for comparing alternatives.

Economic and mathematical models are used in planning for various purposes, including decision-making, they include optimization models (linear, non-linear, dynamic, stochastic queuing models, simulation, virtual models are currently used).

Decision tables are a tool for describing processes and programs with a large number of logical conditions, so most often they have two sections, including conditions and actions.

The method of constructing a decision tree is a logical sequence of actions for making decisions and implementing plans, taking into account the goals and available resources.

The method of comparing alternatives is associated with the evaluation of alternative solutions, the quantitative and qualitative advantages of each of them, which allow us to accept the most effective option for implementation.

According to the clarity of the information presented, the methods can be:

descriptive;

empirical;

tabular;

Graphic.

Via descriptive information, the presentation of the economic situation in the world and regional markets, in the markets of individual product groups is carried out.

IN empirical calculations formulas, algorithms, quantitative models are used.

The information submitted for processing by economic and statistical methods is in tabular form, which makes it possible to analyze volumetric and financial indicators and calculate their dynamics.

Graphic presentation of information underlies all planned calculations in operational planning, network planning uses network charts. Graphic methods for presenting information include:

planning schedule;

· tape chart-chronogram;

accounting schedule;

Gantt chart (Gantt-map);

· cyclograms;

network charts.

Planning Methods: experimental, normative, calculation and analytical, reporting and statistical, method economic analysis, balance sheet, budgeting method, economic-mathematical, program-targeted, and others.

The experimental method is the design of norms, standards and models of plans on the basis of conducting and studying measurements and experiments, as well as taking into account the experience of managers, planners and other specialists.

The normative method lies in the fact that, on the basis of pre-established norms and technical and economic standards, the need of an economic entity for financial resources and their sources is calculated. K include rates of taxes and fees, depreciation rates and other standards established either by the subject itself or for the subject by the state in the form of a special normative or legislative framework. The standards of the economic entity itself are the standards developed directly at the enterprise and used by it to regulate production and economic activities, control the use of financial resources, and other goals for the effective investment of capital.

The calculation-analytical method is based on the division of the work performed and the grouping of the resources used by elements and interconnections, the analysis of the conditions for their most effective interaction and the development of draft plans on this basis.

The reporting and statistical method consists in developing draft plans based on reports, statistics and other information characterizing the real state and changing characteristics of the enterprise.

The method of economic analysis is used to determine the main patterns, trends in the movement of natural and cost indicators, internal reserves of the enterprise.

Using the balance sheet method to determine future demand for financial resources is based on the forecast of receipt of funds and expenses for the main balance sheet items at a certain date in the future.

Method cash flows(budgeting) is universal when drawing up financial plans and serves as a tool for predicting the size and timing of the receipt of the necessary financial resources. The theory of cash flow forecasting is based on the expectation of receipt of funds on a certain date and the budgeting of all costs and expenses. This method gives a lot more useful information than the balance sheet method.

The method of multivariate calculations consists in the development of alternative options for planned calculations in order to choose the optimal one from them, while the selection criteria may be different. For example, one option may take into account the ongoing decline in production, inflation of the national currency, and the other - an increase in interest rates and, as a result, a slowdown in global economic growth and a decrease in product prices.

Methods of economic and mathematical modeling make it possible to quantitatively express the relationship between financial indicators and the main factors that determine them.

It is also possible to distinguish methods according to the degree of participation of management levels.

Progressive method (bottom-up method). With this method, planning is carried out from the lower levels of the enterprise hierarchy to the highest. Here, the lower structural units themselves draw up detailed plans for their work, which are later integrated into the upper levels, forming an enterprise plan.

Retrograde method ("top down"). In this case, the planning process is carried out on the basis of the enterprise plan by detailing its indicators from top to bottom in the hierarchy. At the same time, structural subdivisions must convert the plans of higher levels that come to them into the plans of their subdivisions.

Circular method (counter planning). It is a synthesis of the methods discussed above. The circular method involves the development of a plan in two stages. At the first stage (from top to bottom), the current one is carried out according to the main goals. At the second stage (from bottom to top), the final plan is drawn up according to the system of detailed indicators. At the same time, the most successful solutions are included in the plans.

Method(from Greek. methodos)- it is a way of knowing, studying the phenomena of nature and public life. Model(from lat. modulus- measure, sample) is a scheme, display or description of a phenomenon or process in nature and society. Let's take both definitions into account. This will allow us to assert that the "model" is component"method". For this reason, in the course of explaining the essence of a particular method, model terms may appear.

Methods and models of economic forecasting

Under forecasting methods imply a set of methods of thinking, methods that allow, based on the analysis of information

In the Russian Federation in 2005, this experience was applied in the development of priority programs financed from the state budget: "Affordable Housing", "Education", "Health" and "Agriculture".

information about the forecast object to make a relatively reliable judgment about the future development of this object. The type of the applied method depends on the type of the object. Objects can be classified by levels of management, production resources, areas and types economic activity. The technology for applying forecasting methods is largely determined by the specifics of the object being studied or managed. At the same time, many forecasting models and methods are quite universal and adapt to the specifics of economic objects and processes.

Most Russian forecasters divide the set of predictive methods into three groups based on the information used: factual, expert and combined. Factual Methods are based on primary information about the object, usually documented on some medium. Expert Methods use information received from specialist experts; those, in turn, preliminarily generalize factual or other information. Combined Methods use mixed information arrays, i.e. and factual information and expert information. Imagine a classification of methods (Fig. 2.4).

In the left subgroup factographic methods(in Fig. 2.4 this econometric methods) the most commonly used econometric approaches to forecasting a wide range of processes are listed. Econometrics - it is a science that studies the development of economic objects and processes by means of mathematical and statistical analysis. Formalized methods are most often used to predict the development of socio-economic systems. In favor of using a quantitative approach to the forecasting process, which is implemented on the basis of econometric methods, the following arguments can be made: 1) econometric forecasting methods are included in most of the well-known statistical software packages; 2) the presented methods are based on real statistical information and therefore, unlike expert methods objective; 3) modern econometric research tools allow combining and synthesizing econometric and expert methods.

There are three main classes of econometric models that are used in forecasting:

• 1) time series models, designed to predict economic dynamics;
• 2) regression models with one equation(they have a dependent variable at represented as a function at= /(x, ..., x n), where (n:, ..., x) are independent (explanatory) variables. Models are divided into linear and non-linear);

Rice. 2.4. Classification of economic forecasting methods

3) systems of econometric equations(described by systems of simultaneous equations consisting of identities and regression equations, each of which can, in addition to explanatory variables, also include explanatory variables from other equations of the system).

The process of econometric modeling and forecasting can be divided into seven main steps:

• 1) staged(at this stage, the purpose of the study is formed, the set of economic variables participating in the model is determined);
• 2) a priori(analysis is underway economic essence the object under study, the formation and formalization of the (a priori) information known before the start of the study);
• 3) parameterization(simulation is carried out directly, i.e. the choice general view models, including the composition of variables and the form of their relationship);
• 4) informational(the necessary statistical information is collected - the observed values ​​of economic variables);
• 5) model identification(at this stage, statistical analysis model and estimation of its parameters);
• 6) model verification(the truth, adequacy of the model is checked, i.e. compliance with the modeled real economic object);
• 7) development of point and interval forecasts based on an econometric model.

From the problem of model identification (which consists in the choice and implementation of methods for statistical estimation of its unknown parameters), one should distinguish the problem of its identifiability those. the problem of the possibility of obtaining uniquely defined parameters of a model given by a system of simultaneous equations.

Boolean Methods forecasting includes several groups of methods used in various fields and branches of economic activity. The type of logical prediction most commonly used in practice is forecasting by analogy. It can be applied to all types of management - traditional, systemic, situational and socio-ethical. Most often, this type of forecasting is used in traditional management. Forecasting by analogy is correct only when the analogy between the objects of management, types of management, reactions of the external and internal environment in the case that took place in practice and the specific case of forecasting is established and proved. This method cannot be used to predict phenomena that have no analogues, i.e. fundamentally new objects, processes, situations.

Expert (intuitive) methods Forecasting as a scientific tool for solving complex non-formalizable problems makes it possible to obtain a predictive assessment of the state of development of an object in the future, regardless of information availability. Their essence lies in the construction of a rational procedure for intuitive-logical thinking of a person in combination with quantitative methods for evaluating and processing the results obtained. In this case, the generalized opinion of experts is accepted as a solution to the problem. In case of application expert assessment methods to predict the results of the development of economic objects, a qualitative approach to the forecasting process is mainly implemented.

combined methods, in our opinion, it is necessary to include a group of forecasting methods based on a set of methods of mental activity, as well as operations for collecting, analyzing, processing, storing and using information. In figure 2.5, this group is called heuristic methods, which are designed to implement useful features system, eliminating or mitigating the negative effect of unnecessary functions, ensuring effective management economic entities. According to the encyclopedic dictionary, heuristic methods are special methods used in the process of opening a new one. These methods are characterized by the synthesis of factual and expert information and the possibility of using non-standard forecasting technologies.

By applying the methods, the main tasks of forecasting are solved: identifying the prospects for the near or more distant future in the area under study based on real socio-economic processes, developing optimal trends and long-term plans, taking into account the forecast and evaluating the decision taken from the standpoint of its consequences in the forecast period.

Models and methods of planning

There are the following main planning models:

• 1) traditional budget planning - involves the development and approval of operating and financial budgets for the enterprise as a whole and its individual divisions, as well as strict control over their implementation; focuses on planning income, expenses, cash receipts and payments, the components of the assets and liabilities of the enterprise; plans the need for resources based on data for reporting periods, known data about the future and information obtained as a result of extrapolation. The disadvantages of this model are high costs for its development and implementation in practice, long periods of development and coordination of budgets, insufficient adaptability to a rapidly changing external environment, isolation of budgets from strategies, limitation of the initiative of economic managers by established budget spending. The advantages obtained from the use of this model cover its disadvantages only under conditions of relatively stable and predictable external environment;
• 2) program-targeted planning model, developed in the mid-1950s; provides for the construction of a hierarchy of enterprise goals and the development of programs containing information about the actions, deadlines, participants and resources necessary to achieve the goals;
• 3) model strategic planning, which provides for the development and approval of corporate, business and functional strategies, focuses on finding a market position for an enterprise, developing product programs, improving organizational structure, choosing the location of the enterprise and directions of investments, involves consideration different scenarios development of events, assessment of the external environment, “strong and weaknesses» company, internal and external opportunities and threats;
• 4) advanced budgeting model. Proponents of this approach do not question the budgeting tool itself. A number of scientific publications on the "advanced budgeting" model emphasize the need to develop budgets based on strategic targets;
• 5) "out of budget" planning model- originated in 1998 as a result of the development of a new management model for the transition from the industrial to the information age. The concept of planning "out of budgeting" suggests abandoning budgets (as control tools) and instead using tools such as rolling forecasts, a balanced scorecard, process-oriented performance and service measurement, continuous planning;
• 6) integrated planning model, based on a close connection between strategy and tactics and coordinated purposeful activity structural divisions enterprises on present stage economic development.

There are various approaches to the allocation of planning methods. Let's consider one of them. According to him, the following

planning methods. budget method is based on the preparation of budget tables that reflect the future movement of economic resources or the result of economic activity (for example, the allocation of resources between departments or lines of activity). balance method- this is a method of identifying and ensuring proportions in the development of an enterprise, i.e. certain quantitative relations between the factors of production and the development of all interrelated structural elements by building a system of balances. Normative method assumes that planned targets are determined using norms and standards. This method of planning is used both independently and as an auxiliary in relation to the balance method. Mathematical Methods are reduced to optimization calculations based on various types of models, for example, statistical (correlation), linear programming etc.

Also used graphic methods planning, such as the Gantt chart and the network chart. Gantt Chart, developed at the beginning of the 20th century, is a table that reflects the load for the upcoming period of each piece of equipment, maintenance periods, breaks, etc. This information is placed in a quadrant formed by the intersection of a time line and a column reflecting the content of the task being performed. The quadrants also contain information about the actual performance of tasks, so the schedule can also serve as a reliable monitoring tool. network charts developed since the late 1950s. On the network diagram it is convenient to represent in the form of a chain diagram the sequence and interconnection of multi-pass actions for the implementation of a planned task (for example, the movement of products and their individual parts along the technological chain).

Method Pattern comes down to building a "tree of goals". Each goal and sub-goal in this hierarchical model is evaluated by experts in terms of importance and degree of impact on the final results. Estimates serve as the basis for the distribution of resources, forces and means between individual goals, sub-goals, problems, employees and the determination of the desired timing for the implementation of certain work. Program-target method - this is a method of forming a system of planned tasks and indicators to achieve certain specific goals in solving major problems in the field of scientific, technical and social economic development enterprises, industries, national economy. Factor method - this is a method of quantitative assessment of the role of individual factors in the dynamics of changes in the value of generalizing indicators, aimed at improving the efficiency of production and economic activities. Exist various methods factor analysis: index, chain substitution method, integral, etc.

In practice, as a rule, a combination of planning methods is used. The basis of the technology for applying a combination of methods and models in the management process is systems approach - general scientific methodological concept. The need to analyze the object of forecasting or planning is a reflection of a more general problem of analyzing the object of study. The purpose of the analysis of the forecasting object is to develop a predictive model that allows obtaining predictive information about the object. The process of forming the purposeful behavior of an economic object is based on probabilistic information about the lead period obtained as a result of predictive studies. At the same time, the main purpose of forecasting is to determine the directions of transition from the possible states of the object to the desired ones. Thus, the need for integrating the forecasting process into a systemic and comprehensive analysis of the problems of development of managed objects is obvious. In turn, the logic of the forecasting process is based on a systematic approach and the results of a systematic and comprehensive analysis.

The definitions of "systemic" and "complex" analysis have different objects and subjects of research. System Analysis(from Greek. systema- a whole made up of parts, and analysis- decomposition) is a set of methods and tools for studying complex, multi-level and multi-component systems, objects, processes, based on A complex approach, taking into account the interconnections and interaction of the elements of the system. System analysis is a methodology for studying and solving complex economic, socio-technical and environmental issues modern society. System analysis is a process that provides maximum typification of technology for solving control problems. One of its goals is to increase the efficiency of the object's functioning through the use of three interrelated procedures - measurement, evaluation and decision making for all operations of the management process.

The sequence of stages of system analysis is represented by several logically interrelated stages (Fig. 2.5).

• 1. First, the goal of the organization is set. If the goal cannot be achieved with the help of a known arsenal of means, then the presence of a problematic situation is stated. The formulation of the problem is given.
• 2. The process is carried out interconnected set issues to be explored further - development of a goal tree.

Rice. 2.5.

• 3. The process of determining the links between the objects of the system, the development of statistical or functional models control object.
• 4. Forecast development estimates are developed, the results are compared with target indicators.
• 5. Diagnosing is carried out. It is this stage that is the subject of "research of control systems". Reserves are identified and alternatives for achieving main goal. The smallest number of alternatives is two (binary situation). In the practice of solving complex problems, they strive for the number of formulated alternatives from three to seven.
• 6. Criteria are developed and one or at most two most optimal alternatives are selected. For any rational alternative, a program of measures is developed. Typically, the activities of the program are divided into three groups - organizational, technical and informational. Information events occupy a special place in solving problems, as they provide the creation of information technologies to support management decisions.
• 7. The process of improving the system of functioning and development, the process of improving the management system is being carried out.

To indicators of essential properties systems include the following: 1) system-wide properties - integrity, stability, observability, manageability, determinism, openness, dynamism, etc.; 2) structural properties- composition, connectivity, organization, complexity, scale, spatial scope, centralization, volume, etc.; 3) functional (behavioral) properties - effectiveness, resource intensity, efficiency, activity, power, mobility, productivity, speed, readiness, efficiency, accuracy, efficiency, etc. Together, effectiveness, resource intensity and efficiency give rise to a complex property - process efficiency - the degree of its adequacy to achieve the goal.

The system character of the analysis is organically connected with its complexity. Consistency- the concept is more capacious than complexity, and therefore the latter can be considered an important component of system analysis. Development of market relations and management methods based on various forms property, necessitates a systematic analysis of the problems of economic development. The emphasis on the analysis of integral properties, the identification of comprehensive links and dependencies between various parties and types of economic activity in terms of its integrity constitute basic distinguishing feature system analysis.

Main place in system analysis methodologies economic activities are occupied by universal principles hierarchical construction analytical indicators. The system of analytical indicators should reflect real processes and phenomena and be adequate to them. The number of indicators should be sufficient, their set should be complete for an objective assessment of the results of economic activity and the achieved level of use of production potential, hidden reserves of production. The system of indicators should include both effective and factor parameters of economic activity.

The relationship of the main groups of indicators of economic activity of enterprises determines the scheme and sequence of their implementation. complex analysis as a set of local analyses. At the same time, the objective basis for the formation of indicators is of particular importance. The main thing in complex analysis - consistency, linking individual sections - blocks of analysis with each other, analysis of the relationship and mutual conditionality of these sections and the output of the results of the analysis of each block to generalizing performance indicators. The basic concepts of complex analysis include completeness or comprehensiveness, systematic analysis, the presence of a single goal, consistency and simultaneity of analysis. Complex analysis involves the study of all aspects of economic activity. A complete and comprehensive analysis is only one of the conditions for achieving its complexity. Other necessary condition complexity is the use in the analysis of a single goal that allows you to combine separate directions analysis, indicators and factors of production into a single system.

Thus, system analysis is based on the principles complexity, those. the solution of a systemic problem is possible only with the use of a complex of scientific methods and knowledge, covering with its cognitive capabilities all the diversity of aspects and manifestations of the object under study. Comprehensive analysis is based on the principles consistency, since the analysis of indicators is carried out in the framework of a reasonable sequence based on systems approach. Based on the results of the system analysis, the directions of development of the managed object during the lead time are determined, the result of the complex analysis is an assessment of the actual (observed) economic state of the object. A systematic analysis of economic development problems increases the scientific validity of forecasts and management decisions and allows you to determine the logical sequence of using methods and models in the process of research, forecasting and problem solving. A comprehensive analysis of the economic state of a managed object forms the information basis for forecasting, makes it possible to specify, identify and verify forecast models, determines the principles and logic for building complex forecasting systems.