Risk assessment by expert method table. Abstract expert methods of risk assessment
Introduction 3
1. Risk analysis and assessment 5
1.1. Risk zones and risk curve 7
1.2. Method expert assessments 12
2. Analysis of external risk at the research and production enterprise "Samara Horizons" 15
2.2. Stages of modeling according to the method 25
Conclusion 35
References 37
Introduction
Risk is inherent in any field economic activity. The problem of risk is of particular importance in entrepreneurship, where intensive changes in the environment of a business entity necessitate a prompt and energetic response to the transformations that come in business. At the same time, it is necessary to take into account the industry specifics that determine the risk factors, the degree of their manifestation and significance.
The lack of evidence-based approaches to the analysis and risk assessment of research and production enterprises leads to such undesirable consequences as loss of profits, unsold stocks of goods, reduced investment efficiency, the occurrence of losses in transactions, a reduction in the resource base, etc.
The works of domestic and foreign scientists are devoted to the issues of analysis and assessment of risks in the activities of enterprises. A significant contribution to the development of these issues was made by scientists economists: V. A. Abchuk, A. P. Algin, K. M. Arginbaev, M. I. Bakanov, I. T. Balabanov, V. V. Bokov, V. A. Borovkova, E.S. Vasilchuk, V.V. Glushchenko, P.G. Grabovyi, V.M. Granaturov, A.M. Dubrov, B.A. Lagosha, A.A. Pervozvansky, B.A. Raizberg, V.T. Sevruk, A.A. Spivak, V.A. Chernov, A.S. Shapkin, A.D. Sheremet and others. Among foreign scientists, the following works can be noted: W. Barton, T. Bachkai, E. Voghan, M. Green, S. Williams, K. Redhead and others. V. A. Borovkova, A. M. Omarova, V. M. Granaturova, E.V. Seregina, G.A. Taktarova, G.V. Chernov and others.
However, despite a significant number of studies in the field of risk analysis and an active search for ways to objectively assess the magnitude of risk, many methodological and methodological issues of this important issue not yet resolved. So, in particular, so far there is no consensus on the nature and content of the economic risk of enterprises, criteria and indicators (general and private) for assessing economic risk have not been substantiated, there is no evidence-based classification of factors that determine economic risks, in particular external risks. risks of the enterprise in market conditions of functioning.
The need to improve the risk assessment of an enterprise and, in particular, a research and production enterprise in market conditions predetermined the relevance of the research topic.
Purpose and objectives of the study. Target term paper consists in improving the theoretical foundations and developing methodological provisions for the analysis of external risk and an expert method for assessing the risk of research and production enterprises in market conditions of functioning in order to increase the efficiency of their development.
To achieve this goal, the following tasks were set and solved in the course work:
Analysis of risk sources of research and production enterprises and their classification;
Identification of risk features at research and production enterprises and their assessment in modern conditions;
Development of a methodological approach to risk assessment at research and production enterprises using the expert method.
Subject of study is an external risk analysis. The analysis of external risk is understood as an assessment of the degree of influence of the external environment on the activities of a research and production enterprise.
The research and production enterprise Closed Joint-Stock Company "Samara Horizons" was chosen as the object of study.
The theoretical and methodological basis of the course work was the work of domestic and foreign researchers.
Information base of the study. The data of CJSC NPP "Samara Horizons" were used as initial information in the research.
1. Risk analysis and assessment
The problem of analysis, assessment and risk management in the implementation of production activities by enterprises is today one of the central problems in the Russian economy. In a planned economy, when unprofitable enterprises received subsidies through the redistribution of funds from profitable enterprises, these problems were not so urgent. Currently, if the company does not make a profit, and even more so if there is no return on investment, then the company is on the verge of bankruptcy. Therefore, the rational use of funds and taking into account the risk factor is the most important moment in the activities of the enterprise.
In the conditions of the formation of market relations, the role and importance of individual elements of the management process has changed radically, therefore, the theoretical approaches to their analysis, evaluation and organization at the enterprise are also changing.
The number of unresolved problems in the field of managing economic and industrial risks at industrial enterprises has increased markedly at the present time with the advent of a competitive environment.
At the same time, it is important to take into account that any of the objects and subjects of production activity is exposed to the systemic impact of risks of various hierarchical levels: geopolitical, political, social, economic, financial, industrial, commercial, and man-made.
The risk can be reduced, first of all, by careful preliminary study, calculation of operations, choice of a rational, less dangerous course of action. Correct accounting of risk factors and rational risk management at the enterprise contributes to its successful market activity, while other enterprises whose management does not pay due attention to risks, in a similar market situation, inevitably turn out to be unprofitable. Therefore, the issues of theory and practice of risk assessment and management have acquired particular relevance at the present time.
The purpose of risk analysis is to provide potential partners with the necessary data to make decisions about the appropriateness of participating in the project and provide for measures to protect against possible financial losses. Risk analysis is performed in the sequence shown in fig. one.
Figure 1. Sequence of risk analysis.
General principles of risk analysis. When talking about the need to take into account risk in project management, they usually mean its main participants: the customer, investor, performer (contractor) or seller, buyer, as well as insurance company. When analyzing the risk of any of the project participants, the following criteria are used, proposed by the famous American expert B. Berlimer:
Risk losses are independent of each other;
A loss in one direction from the “risk portfolio” does not necessarily increase the probability of a loss in another (except in force majeure circumstances);
The maximum possible damage should not exceed the financial capabilities of the participant.
Risk analysis can be divided into two complementary types: qualitative and quantitative. Qualitative analysis can be relatively simple, its main task is to determine the risk factors, the stages of work during which the risk arises, i.e., to establish potential risk areas, and then identify all possible risks. Quantitative risk analysis, i.e., the numerical determination of the size of individual risks and the risk of the project as a whole, is a more complex problem. All factors, one way or another affecting the growth of the degree of risk in the project, can be conditionally divided into objective and subjective.
1.1. Risk zones and risk curve
An entrepreneur should always strive to take into account the possible risk and provide for measures to reduce its level and compensate for probable losses. This is the essence of risk management (risk management). the main objective risk management (especially for conditions modern Russia) - to ensure that in the worst case we can talk about the lack of profit, but not about the bankruptcy of the organization. To assess the degree of acceptability of commercial risk, it is necessary to allocate risk zones depending on the expected amount of losses. General scheme risk zones is shown in fig. 2.
Figure 2. Risk zones.
The area in which losses are not expected, i.e. where the economic result economic activity positive is called the risk-free zone. The zone of acceptable risk is the area within which the amount of probable losses does not exceed the expected profit and, therefore, commercial activity has economic viability. The boundary of the acceptable risk zone corresponds to the level of losses equal to the calculated profit. Critical risk zone - the area of possible losses exceeding the amount of expected profit up to the value of the total estimated revenue (the sum of costs and profit). Here, the entrepreneur runs the risk of not only not receiving any income, but also incurring direct losses in the amount of all costs incurred.
A catastrophic risk zone is an area of probable losses that exceed the critical level and can reach a value equal to the organization's own capital. A catastrophic risk can lead an organization or entrepreneur to collapse and bankruptcy. In addition, the category of catastrophic risk (regardless of the amount of property damage) should include the risk associated with a threat to life or health of people and the occurrence of economic disasters. A visual representation of the level of commercial risk is given by a graphical representation of the dependence of the probability of losses on their magnitude - the risk curve (Fig. 3).
Figure 3. Risk curve.
The construction of such a curve is based on the hypothesis that profit as a random variable is subject to the normal distribution law and involves the following assumptions.
1. Most likely to receive a profit equal to the calculated value - Pr. The probability (Вр) of obtaining such a profit is maximum and the value of P can be considered the mathematical expectation of profit. The probability of making a profit, greater or less than the calculated one, decreases monotonically as deviations increase.
2. Losses are considered to be a decrease in profit (ΔP) in comparison with the calculated value. If real profit is P, then ΔP = Pr - P.
The assumptions made are controversial to a certain extent and not always valid for all types of risks, but on the whole they quite correctly reflect the most general patterns of changes in commercial risk and make it possible to construct a profit loss probability distribution curve, which is called the risk curve (Fig. 4).
Figure 4. Profit loss probability distribution curve.
The main thing in assessing commercial risk is the ability to build a risk curve and determine zones and indicators of acceptable, critical and catastrophic risks. Thus, the risk analysis process includes the following stages:
Creation of a predictive model;
Definition of risk variables;
Determining the probability distribution of the selected variables and determining the range of possible values for each of them;
Establishing the presence or absence of correlations among risk variables;
Model runs;
Analysis of results.
risk variables. These are variables that are critical to the viability of the project, i.e. even small deviations from its expected value negatively affect the project. Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis is used to select variables. Sensitivity analysis measures the response of project results to changes in a particular project variable.
Use of expert methods in risk assessment and analysis
Popenko Georgy Vladimirovich
Management department
Federal State Autonomous Educational Institution of Higher Education "Southern Federal University"
Rostov-on-Don, Russia
The article discusses and describes the methods that experts use to assess and analyze possible risks. The information obtained during the study is based on a theoretical knowledge base and on practical experience in assessing the degree of risk for a store board games Gaga.
Keywords: risk, risk assessment, tool, experts, expert assessment
The specifics of the functioning and development of a business require a manager to constantly analyze risks and develop measures to reduce them. One of the popular risk assessment methods is the method of expert assessments, in which experts analyze problematic issues based on intuitive-logical analysis. The result of such an assessment is a processed expert opinion, on the basis of which further development takes place. management decisions.
During the performance of their task, the hired specialists perform two main missions: they measure the characteristics of objects that were previously formed. The formation of an object includes the following elements: tasks, ways of resolving and possible outcomes of the situation, and the measurement of characteristics means finding an indicator of the implementation of the fact, identifying the most appropriate solution and calculating the goal value coefficient. Experts form elements through the use logical thinking and intuition.
Key features of the proposed tool:
A high level of control during the entire cycle of expert assessment of the situation, ensuring efficient work during the entire cycle;
Obtaining the necessary information during the examination.
The presented tools separate the method of expert assessments from the usual examination, which is widely used in all areas of human activity (meetings, examinations, consultations).
Considering the method of expert assessments, we can say that this method can be used in individually and in a group setting.
Goals of individual expert assessments:
1. Foresight of events.
2. Description of the event.
3. Studying and combining the findings of other experts.
4. Development of an action plan.
5. Providing the results of the analysis.
Benefits of individual expertise:
1. The speed of obtaining information.
2. Minimum costs.
The disadvantages of individual expertise include:
1. Subjectivity.
2. Uncertainty in the conformity of estimates.
These shortcomings are eliminated in a collective approach. It has the following features:
1. High level of objectivity.
2. The conclusions obtained on their basis have a high level of reliability.
The purpose of the collective approach to the work of the expert group is to create a consensus after considering the results of entrepreneurial activity.
The general opinion is formed through methods such as brainstorming, scripting, business games, meetings and "court".
Way individual approach is based on a personal survey of specialists and an assessment of the results. This method uses the following tools: questionnaire, survey, Delphi method.
First stage Peer review includes the preparation of a guidance document with prescribed goals and ways to achieve them.
At the second stage, an expert group is formed. this work occurs according to the following scenario, first there is an understanding of the problem that needs to be solved, then the field of activity is determined, it can be administrative, industrial, industrial and service sectors, in order to form an expert group from among specialists of appropriate qualifications. Further, in accordance with the tasks set, the required number of experts is determined, then the list of the most suitable experts is formed directly according to such factors as the territorial location, knowledge and experience of the expert, and his approval for the fate. In conclusion, a final list of persons included in the expert group is compiled.
The final stage of the work of the management groups is summing up the general results, which include the analysis of the expert assessment, the preparation of a report, the discussion of the results, the provision of the results of the work for approval and familiarization with the final product of the organization of the examination and persons.
The meaning of the method of expert assessments is that the experts included in the expert group conduct a qualitative analysis of the given or identified problems, and then process the result. In the case when the expert group agrees on the result of the problem, this fact can be considered a solution to this problem.
At the moment, there is a small list of options for using an expert group. For example, the method of agreeing estimates, the meaning of which is that each of the experts expresses his opinion on an individual basis. Further, thanks to a certain algorithm, these opinions are translated into assessments, which subsequently merge into one common - agreed assessment.
For example, an enterprise asks experts to determine the probability of an event associated with a risk situation, i-th expert evaluates the probability of an event to obtain a generalized estimate. In this situation, it is best to use the average probability formula:
where m is the number of experts participating in the examination; p is a risky situation; pi is the probability that the event will occur in numerical form.
There is another option, more accurate, but more time consuming. This is to calculate the weighted average of the probability. Here it is necessary to take into account the competence of the evaluating expert, which is formed in due time due to the following indicators: the previous activity of the expert, checking the knowledge of experts in this field, their qualifications, their position, and so on.
where h is the weight attributed to the i-th expert.
When using the method of determining the reliability of expert assessments, the coefficient of coordination (consent) is used. Its value makes it possible to determine the degree of agreement of opinions and, consequently, the reliability of these estimates.
And the last method, this quantification technique is produced by the formula:
where ri is the value of each indicator in points, from 1 to 10; Ai is the weight coefficient of the corresponding indicator.
The essence of this method is as follows: certain risk indicators are set. These indicators are assigned a certain weight coefficient, the sum of which should be equal to 1. Further, the experts evaluate on a 10-point scale, where 1 is very good and 10 is very bad. The score is then multiplied by its weight, and the result is each score's contribution to the total. The amount will be an indicator of the degree of risk in the enterprise: 1-4 - minimal risk, 5-8 medium risk, 9-10 high degree risk.
To demonstrate the implementation of the application of the method of expert assessments for the analysis and assessment of risks, we will give an example.
The Gaga store distributes board games in Rostov-on-Don. This store has a huge range of board games, ranging from the skill game "The Tower" to complex strategies with the ability to create intrigue and alliances "Game of Thrones" during the game. In addition, the store holds game libraries to attract customers, where people can come and play the game they are interested in.
To assess the risks of this store, a group of experts was invited in the amount of 5 people who were randomly selected from among regular customers.
The following indicators were chosen as the main assessed risks:
Falling demand;
Competitors;
Range;
Overcharge;
Low level of personnel qualification.
To assess the risks of the Gaga store, a quantitative assessment method was chosen (formula 3)
The results of expert assessments are presented in Table 1.
Table 1 - The results of expert risk assessments of the Gaga board game store.
| Criteria | Expert 1 | Expert 2 | Expert 3 | Expert 4 | Expert 5 | Points |
| Falling demand | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 3 |
| Competitors | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| Range | 4 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 6 |
| Overcharge | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 5 |
| 3 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 3 |
The indicators of the average weighted assessments of experts and the weighting coefficient of the assessment criteria are presented in Table 2.
Table 2 - The indicators of the average weighted ratings of experts and the weighting coefficient of the evaluation criteria for the Gaga board game store.
| Criteria | Weighted average expert estimates (ri) Based on the calculations in the following table, the following figures should be. | Indicator weight (Ai) |
| Falling demand | 3 | 0.3 |
| Competitors | 2 | 0.25 |
| Range | 6 | 0.15 |
| Overcharge | 5 | 0.2 |
| Low level of personnel qualification | 3 | 0.1 |
The calculation of the quantitative assessment of possible risks is presented in Table 3.
Table 3 - Calculation of the quantitative assessment of the possible risks of the Gaga board game store
| Possible risks | Specific Gravity (Ai*ri) |
| Falling demand | 0.9 |
| Competitors | 0.5 |
| Range | 0.9 |
| Overcharge | 1 |
| Low level of knowledge among staff | 0.3 |
| Outcome | 3.6 |
Because the value of the expert assessment indicator R=3.6 falls into the upper interval of the minimum risk, then we can conclude that the probability of a risk situation at the Gaga board game store is low. At the same time, the store should pay attention to the development of the following areas: increasing its assortment and revising the pricing policy, because they, according to experts, received the highest scores in risk assessment.
Thus, we have analyzed the main approaches to risk assessment using the method of expert assessments. Using the quantitative assessment method as an example, they showed how a company can evaluate its activities with the help of experts and take timely actions to increase its competitiveness.
List of sources and literature
1. Algin A.P. Risk and its role in public life. M.: Thought, 2004. S. 30
2. Reisberg BA. Entrepreneurship and risk. M.: INFRA-M, 2006. S. 45
3. Roik V.D. Occupational risks: assessment; control; insurance. M.: Aekil, 2004. S. 75
4. Guide to risk management / D.A. Martsinkovsky, A.V. Vladimirtsev, O.A. Martsinkovsky; Saint Petersburg: Beresta, 2007, p. 60
5. Ustenko O.L. Theory of economic risk: Monograph. – K.: MAUP, 2007.
6. Khokhlov N.V. Risk management. M.: Publishing house of UNITI, 2004. S. 84
The Use of Expert Assessments for Risk Assessment and Analysis
Georgy V. Popenko
Faculty of Management
Southern Federal University
Rostov-on-Don
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References
1. Al "gin A.P. Risk i ego rol" v obshchestvennoy zhizni. Moscow: Mysl", 2004. 30 p.
2. Rayzberg BA. Predprinimatel "stvo i risk. Moscow: INFRA-M, 2006. 45 p.
3. Roik V.D. Professional "nye riski: otsenka; upravlenie; insurance. Moscow: Aekil, 2004. 75 p.
4. Martsynkovskiy D.A., Vladimirtsev A.V., Martsynkovskiy O.A. Rukovodstvo po risk-managementu. Sankt-Petersburg: Beresta, 2007. 60 p.
5. Ustenko O.L. Teoriya economic riska: Monografiya. K.: MAUP, 2007.
6. Khokhlov N.V. risk management. Mosocw: Izd-vo YuNITI, 2004. 84 p.
Article imprint
Popenko, Georgy Vladimirovich Use of expert methods in risk assessment and analysis. U magazine. Economy. Control. Finance., , n. 2, June 2017. ISSN 2500-2309. Available on:
The concept of risk
Definition 1
Risk is a cost expression of a probabilistic event that can lead to losses.
The greater the chance of making high profits, the higher the risk levels. Risks are formed when the actual and estimated data do not coincide with each other and can be both positive and negative. Making a profit is possible only if possible losses are foreseen and insured.
Risk functions
There are several risk functions. These include:
- Innovative, stimulating the search for non-traditional solutions to problems. Innovation leads the enterprise to competitiveness and rapid growth;
- Regulatory function, acting as a constructive or destructive, and aimed at obtaining results;
- Protective, expressed through a tolerant attitude towards failures, while realizing that risk is an integral part of any production;
- Analytical - a function that assumes the choice of one single correct solution from a set.
Remark 1
It should be noted that, despite the threats that risk carries, it is an integral integral part making a profit. In this regard, the main task of the manager is not a complete rejection of risks, but the choice of a solution related to determining the possible development of risk situations.
Risk assessment
The set of analytical enterprises that make it possible to make a forecast of the possibility of obtaining additional income, or to determine the amount of damage from a situation that has arisen, is a risk assessment. Risk assessment is carried out on the basis of qualitative quantitative analyses. They are carried out on the basis of an assessment of the influence of external and internal factors. Such an analysis is a rather time-consuming procedure, but it always bears fruit if it is carried out qualitatively.
If possible losses can be estimated and predicted in one way or another, then a quantitative assessment has been obtained. Speaking about the fact that the risk is measured by the value of losses, their random nature should be taken into account. To obtain data on the likelihood of a risky situation, an objective analysis is used.
Any type of risk has a mathematically expressed probability of the situation occurring. It is based on statistical data and can be calculated to a reasonable degree of accuracy. All possible consequences of any single risk must be known in order to calculate the quantitative consequences.
Expert risk assessment
Definition 2
An expert assessment is an opinion of experts on a given issue, performed according to a specially developed methodology.
Expert risk assessment involves the collection and study of various assessments made by the company's specialists or external experts, and regarding the likelihood of certain losses. Such estimates should be based on taking into account all economic criteria and on statistical data. With a small number of indicators, the implementation of the method of expert assessments looks difficult.
The role of the method of expert assessments is increasing due to the variability of the influence of many economic processes. At certain stages, the role of such a method increases, at others it decreases many times over. An expert assessment can be obtained only in the case of a special study, as well as using the experience of other specialists in the field. In view of the many indicators that are often mutually exclusive, the method of expert assessments is used to construct quality criteria. The role of the human expert in this method is decisive.
Often in economics, the factors to be taken into account are so new and complex that there is not enough information about them, and the likelihood of a particular outcome cannot be estimated. statistical methods. Therefore, due to the lack or lack of necessary information, it is necessary to use expert methods.
The essence of the method of expert assessments lies in the rational organization of expert analysis of the problem with the quantitative assessment of judgments and the processing of their results. The generalized conclusions of experts are considered a solution to the problem.
The application of expert methods is quite wide. For example, expert risk assessment is carried out by specialists of banking institutions when granting loans. Various international agencies compile risk ratings, in particular, investment, country, political risks, ratings investment attractiveness etc.
V practical activities apply individual and group (collective) expert assessments (survey).
Main purposes of use individual expert assessments:
Forecasting the course of development of events and phenomena in the future, as well as their current assessment;
Analysis and generalization of the results provided by other experts;
Drawing up action scenarios;
Issuance of work permits for other professionals and organizations.
Collective peer reviews are usually less subjective and decisions
adopted on their basis, have a significant probability of implementation.
There are three main types of group expert procedures :
Open discussion of the issues raised, followed by open or closed voting;
Free expression without discussion and voting;
Closed discussion followed by closed voting or filling out expert survey questionnaires.
Methods of expert assessments are divided into axiomatic and straight.
Axiomatic Methods are based on the construction of the utility function of the control subject. At the same time, a statement is formed regarding the type of utility function, as well as its most important features. These statements are called axioms . All information received from the subject of management is considered as a means of testing the hypothesis about the form of the utility function. With the axiomatic approach, each multi-criteria solution provides an estimate of utility.
Direct Methods are based on the fact that the type of dependence of the utility function on estimates for many criteria is given without theoretical foundations, and the parameters of this dependency are either also set or directly evaluated by the control subject.
The most common of the direct methods are:
- Weighted sum method of criteria evaluations. According to this method, the utility (V) multicriteria object is calculated by the formula:
where is the weight of the i-th criterion, measured on a quantitative scale;
Object valuation with and -th criterion ().
- Decision tree method : the subject of management gives estimates of utility and subjective probability for each of the solution options;
- brainstorming method(see Section 3);
- Delphi Method(See Section 3) .
General examination scheme includes the following main steps:
Selection of experts and formation of expert groups;
Formation of questions and compilation of questionnaires;
Working with experts;
Formation of rules for determining total marks based on the marks of individual experts;
Analysis and processing of expert assessments .
At selection of experts and formation of expert groups , based on the objectives of the expert survey, the structure of the expert group, the number of experts and their required individual qualities. That is, the requirements for the specialization and qualification of experts, the required number of experts of each specialization and their total number in the group are determined. The quantitative and qualitative composition of experts is selected on the basis of an analysis of the breadth of the problem, the reliability of estimates, the characteristics of experts and the cost of resources. Provided that experts are sufficiently reliable measurers of the degree of risk, with an increase in the number of experts, the accuracy of the results of the examination will also increase, but at the same time, the time and cost of conducting it will increase.
At forming questions and compiling questionnaires it is necessary to comply with the rules that ensure compliance with the conditions conducive to the formation of an objective opinion by experts. To ensure that these conditions are met, the rules for conducting the survey and organizing the work of the expert group should be developed.
Working with experts includes three stages:
Experts are involved on an individual basis in order to clarify the object model, its parameters and indicators that are subject to expert assessment, clarify the wording of questions and terminology in the questionnaires, agree on the appropriateness of one or another form of presentation of tables of expert assessments and clarify groups of experts;
Experts are provided with questionnaires with an explanatory letter that describes the purpose of the work, the structure and procedure for constructing tables with examples;
After receiving the survey results, they are processed and analyzed.
When forming the rules for determining the total scores for rational use information received from experts, it is necessary to turn it into a form convenient for further analysis.
Expert assessments can have different scales and units of measurement (points, percentages, physical assessments, etc.).
Analysis and processing of expert assessments involves streamlining the information received and presenting it in a form convenient for decision-making, as well as determining the consistency of the actions of experts and the reliability of expert assessments.
An important stage of expert procedures is assessment of the consistency of expert opinions and the reliability of expertise . The existing methods for determining the reliability of expert assessments are based on the assumption that if the actions of experts are consistent, the reliability of assessments is guaranteed. Most often, the coefficient of variation, Spearman's rank correlation coefficient, and the concordance coefficient are used for this purpose.
Coefficient of concordance (consent) allows you to judge the degree of agreement between the opinions of experts and the probability of their assessments and is determined by the formula:
(15.74)
where is the actual variance of the total (ordered) estimates provided by the experts;
Dispersion of the total (ordered) estimates provided by experts in full agreement of opinions;
Evaluation given to the ι-th object j -th expert;
The total score received by / -th object; T - number of evaluated objects;
P - number of experts;
The average value of the total score for T facilities provided P experts with full agreement of opinions of experts.
The value of the concordance coefficient can vary from 0 to 1. When W = 0 - there is no consistency, that is, there is no connection between the experts' assessments; At - the agreement of opinions of experts is complete. When consider that the opinions of experts are more consistent than inconsistent.
If, in accordance with the accepted criteria, the opinions of experts can be considered agreed, then the assessments they provide are accepted and used in the process of preparing and implementing management decisions.
Example 15.24.
It is necessary to determine the degree of agreement between the opinions of experts based on the results of their assessment of seven investment objects, which are given in Table. 15.14.
table 15.14
Expert assessments of investment objects
|
Investment object number |
Expert assessments, points |
Evaluation of the object with full agreement of expert opinions, points |
||||
solution
1. Determine the total ranks of importance for each investment object according to expert estimates:
Object "1": 4 + 6 + 4 + 4 + 3 = 21 points;
Object "2" 3 + 3 + 2 + 3 + 4 = 15 points;
Object "3": 2 + 2 + 1 + 2 + 2 = 9 points;
Object "4" 6 + 5 + 6 + 5 + 6 = 28 points;
Object "5" 1 + 1 + 3 + 1 + 1 = 7 points;
Object "6" 5 + 4 + 5 + 6 + 5 = 25baliv;
Object "7" 7 + 7 + 7 + 7 + 7 = 35 points.
So the highest total rank of importance (35 points) has the investment object "7", the smallest (7 points) - the object "5". That is, investing in object "7" is the most appropriate.
2. The total ranks of the importance of investment objects, provided that the opinions of experts are fully consistent:
Object "1": 5 ∙ 5 = 25 points;
Object "2" 3 5 = 15 points;
Object "C": 2 5 = 10 points;
Object "4" 6 5 = 30 points;
Object "5": 15 = 5 points;
Object "b": 4 5 = 20 points;
Object "7" 7 5 = 35 points.
With complete agreement of opinions, the object of expertise "7" will have the highest total rank of importance (35 points), the object "5" will have the lowest (5 points). That is, the most appropriate investment is in the object "7".
3. Determine the average value of the total score:
4. The actual variance of the total assessments of experts:
5. Dispersion of total estimates with full agreement of opinions of experts:
6. The coefficient of concordance is determined by the formula (15.74):
or 90%.
Since the value of the concordance coefficient (0.9) is higher than 0.5, then the opinions of experts can be considered agreed, and the estimates they provide can be used to develop and make management decisions.
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Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation
Federal State Budgetary Educational Institution of Higher Professional Education
"St. Petersburg Polytechnic University of Peter the Great - structural subdivision"Institute of Trade and Economic University"
(FGAOU VO "SPbPU - TEU")
Faculty of Trade and Consumer Products Expertise
Abstract on the discipline: "Risk Management"
On the topic: "Method of expert risk assessments"
The work was done by a student
4 courses, groups 47035/3
Record book number: 13687 - TD
Kuznetsov I.A.
Checked:
Scientific adviser Goncharov G.A.
Saint Petersburg 2016
- Introduction
- 1. Risk zones and risk curve
- 2. Method of expert assessments
- Conclusion
- Bibliography
Introduction
Risk is inherent in any area of economic activity. The problem of risk is of particular importance in entrepreneurship, where intensive changes in the environment of a business entity necessitate a prompt and energetic response to the transformations that come in business. At the same time, it is necessary to take into account the industry specifics that determine the risk factors, the degree of their manifestation and significance.
The lack of evidence-based approaches to the analysis and risk assessment of research and production enterprises leads to such undesirable consequences as loss of profits, unsold stocks of goods, reduced investment efficiency, the occurrence of losses in transactions, a reduction in the resource base, etc.
However, despite a significant amount of research in the field of risk analysis and an active search for ways to objectively assess the magnitude of risk, many methodological and methodological issues of this important problem have not yet been resolved. So, in particular, so far there is no consensus on the nature and content of the economic risk of enterprises, criteria and indicators (general and private) for assessing economic risk have not been substantiated, there is no evidence-based classification of factors that determine economic risks, in particular external risks. risks of the enterprise in market conditions of functioning.
The need to improve the risk assessment of an enterprise and, in particular, a research and production enterprise in market conditions predetermined the relevance of the research topic.
1. Risk zones and risk curve
An entrepreneur should always strive to take into account the possible risk and provide for measures to reduce its level and compensate for probable losses. This is the essence of risk management (risk management). The main goal of risk management (especially for the conditions of modern Russia) is to ensure that in the worst case we can talk about the lack of profit, but not about the bankruptcy of the organization. To assess the degree of acceptability of commercial risk, it is necessary to allocate risk zones depending on the expected amount of losses. The general scheme of risk zones is shown in fig. one.
Figure 1. Risk zones.
The area in which losses are not expected, i.e., where the economic result of economic activity is positive, is called the risk-free zone. The zone of acceptable risk is the area within which the amount of probable losses does not exceed the expected profit and, therefore, commercial activity has economic feasibility. The boundary of the acceptable risk zone corresponds to the level of losses equal to the calculated profit. The critical risk zone is the area of possible losses that exceed the amount of expected profit up to the value of the total estimated revenue (the sum of costs and profits). Here, the entrepreneur runs the risk of not only not receiving any income, but also incurring direct losses in the amount of all costs incurred.
Catastrophic risk zone - the area of probable losses that exceed the critical level and can reach a value equal to equity organizations. A catastrophic risk can lead an organization or entrepreneur to collapse and bankruptcy. In addition, the category of catastrophic risk (regardless of the amount of property damage) should include the risk associated with a threat to life or health of people and the occurrence of economic disasters. A visual representation of the level of commercial risk gives a graphical representation of the dependence of the probability of losses on their magnitude - the risk curve (Fig. 2).
Figure 2. Risk curve.
The construction of such a curve is based on the hypothesis that profit as a random variable is subject to the normal distribution law and involves the following assumptions.
1. Most likely to receive a profit equal to the calculated value - Pr. The probability (Вр) of obtaining such a profit is maximum and the value of P can be considered the mathematical expectation of profit. The probability of making a profit, greater or less than the calculated one, decreases monotonically as deviations increase.
2. Losses are considered to be a decrease in profit (DP) in comparison with the calculated value. If real profit is equal to P, then DP = Pr - P.
The assumptions made are controversial to a certain extent and not always valid for all types of risks, but on the whole quite correctly reflect the most general patterns of changes in commercial risk and make it possible to construct a profit loss probability distribution curve, which is called the risk curve (Fig. 3).
Figure 3. Profit Loss Probability Distribution Curve
The main thing in assessing commercial risk is the ability to build a risk curve and determine zones and indicators of acceptable, critical and catastrophic risks. Thus, the risk analysis process includes the following stages:
* creation of predictive model;
* definition of risk variables;
* determination of the probability distribution of selected variables and determination of the range of possible values for each of them;
* establishing the presence or absence of correlations among risk variables;
* runs of models;
* analysis of the results.
risk variables. These are variables that are critical to the viability of the project, i.e. even small deviations from its expected value negatively affect the project. Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis is used to select variables. Sensitivity analysis measures the response of project results to changes in a particular project variable.
Uncertainty analysis helps to highlight high-risk variables. The set of expected values of the variable should be wide enough, but with boundaries: minimum and maximum values. Thus, a range of possible values is set for each risk variable. Two main categories of probability distribution can be distinguished: 1) normal, uniform and triangular distributions (they spread the probability within the same range, but with different degrees of concentration relative to the average values). These types of distribution are called symmetric; 2) stepwise and discrete distributions. With a discrete distribution, range intervals are allocated, each of which is assigned a certain probability weight in a stepwise manner (Fig. 4).
Figure 4. Probability distribution.
correlated variables. Determination of risk variables and giving them an appropriate probability distribution -- necessary condition conducting a risk analysis. With the successful completion of these two stages of analysis, with a reliable computer program, you can proceed to the modeling stage. At this stage, the computer generates a series of scenarios based on random numbers generated using specified probability distributions.
To analyze the available data, regression and correlation are usually used to make it easier to predict the dependent variable from the actual or hypothetical values of the independent variable. As a result of such analyzes, a regression equation and a correlation coefficient are derived. For risk analysis, this is just the input data, and the result is the information generated during the simulation. The task of correlation analysis in relation to risk analysis is to control the values of the dependent variable, allowing you to keep the correspondence with the opposite values of the independent variable.
Currently, the following methods of risk analysis are the most common: financial profit management
* statistical;
* expert assessments;
* analytical;
* combined method.
2. Method of expert assessments
This method involves the collection and study of estimates made by various specialists ( this enterprise or external experts) relating to the likelihood of occurrence various levels losses. Estimates are based on taking into account all financial risk factors, as well as on statistical data. The implementation of the method of expert assessments is much more complicated if the number of assessment indicators is small.
The variant and probable nature of many project processes enhances the role of expert judgment in determining economic and financial performance. Such estimates are used quite regularly both in the domestic and in foreign practice. During the transition period, the role of expert opinions in determining the relevant indicators increases significantly, since the indicators used for calculation are not directive. Appropriate expert assessment can be obtained both after conducting special studies and using the accumulated experience of leading experts. The increase in risk in the implementation of the project requires a more thorough assessment of the critical moments of its implementation. Many initial indicators, often competing with each other, involve the use of expert assessments to construct a project quality criterion. Therefore, the investment assessment system in modern conditions, by necessity, becomes “human-algorithmic”, and the role of a human expert is decisive. Expert assessment is the opinion of experts on a specific issue identified by a special method. An expert assessment is necessary for making a decision at the stage of preparation of the PTES. But already in the feasibility study, the number of expert assessments should be minimal. Staged risk assessment is based on the fact that the risks are determined for each stage of the project separately, and then the total result for the entire project is found. Usually, in each project, the following stages are distinguished: preparatory (fulfillment of the entire range of works necessary to start the project); construction (construction of necessary buildings and structures, purchase and installation of equipment); functioning (bringing the project to full capacity and making a profit). The nature of the investment project as something done on an individual basis essentially leaves the only possibility for assessing the values of risks - the use of expert opinions. Each expert, working separately, is presented with a list of primary risks for all stages of the project and is invited to assess the likelihood of risks occurring in accordance with the following rating system:
0 - the risk is considered as insignificant;
25 - the risk is most likely not realized;
50 - nothing definite can be said about the occurrence of the event;
75 - the risk is most likely to occur;
100 - the risk is realized.
Expert evaluations are subjected to consistency analysis, which is performed according to certain rules. Firstly, the maximum allowable difference between the estimates of two experts for any factor should not exceed 50. Comparisons are made modulo (plus or minus sign is not taken into account), which allows eliminating unacceptable differences in experts' estimates of the likelihood of a particular risk. If the number of experts is more than three, then pairwise comparable opinions are evaluated. Secondly, to assess the consistency of expert opinions on the entire set of risks, a pair of experts is identified whose opinions differ most. For calculations, the assessment discrepancies are summed modulo and the result is divided by the number of simple risks. The quotient of division should not exceed 25. If contradictions are found between the opinions of experts (at least one of the above rules is not followed), they are discussed at meetings with experts. In the absence of contradictions, all expert estimates are reduced to the average (arithmetic mean), which is used in further calculations. A separate problem is the justification and evaluation of priorities. Its essence lies in the need to free experts who assess the probability of risk from assessing the importance of each individual event for the entire project. This work should be carried out by the project developers, namely the team that prepares the list of risks to be assessed. The task of the experts is to give an assessment of the risks. After determining the probabilities for simple risks (obtaining an average expert assessment), it is necessary to obtain an integral risk assessment of the entire project. To do this, the risks of each sub-stage or composition of the stages are first calculated: functioning, financial and economic, technological, social and environmental. Then the risks of each stage are calculated - preparatory, construction, functioning.
Another important method of risk research is modeling the choice problem using a "decision tree". This method involves the graphical construction of decision options that can be taken. The branches of the "tree" correlate subjective and objective assessments of possible events. Following along the constructed branches and using special methods for calculating probabilities, each path is evaluated and then the less risky one is chosen.
Conclusion
In general, the use of the expert method of risk assessment makes it possible to visually trace the influence of individual initial factors on the final result of the project, identify the most significant risk factors at the preliminary stage, and take actions to minimize them.
Risk should be understood as a consequence of an action or inaction, as a result of which there is real opportunity obtaining uncertain results of a different nature, both positively and negatively affecting the financial and economic activities of the enterprise. Most researchers note that enterprises should not avoid risk at the decision-making stage, but should be able to competently and professionally manage it. For this, a risk analysis is carried out.
Currently, the following methods of risk analysis are the most common:
* statistical;
* expert assessments;
* analytical;
* assessment of financial stability and solvency;
* assessing the feasibility of costs;
* analysis of the consequences of risk accumulation;
* method of using analogues;
* combined method.
The peer review method differs in the way information is collected to build the risk curve. This method involves the collection and study of estimates made by various experts (in the enterprise or external experts) regarding the probability of occurrence of various levels of losses. Estimates are based on taking into account all financial risk factors, as well as on statistical data.
Bibliography
1. Algin A.P. Risk and its role in public life. -- M.: Thought, 2004.
2. Algin A.M. Facets of economic risk. -- M.: Knowledge, 2005.
3. Balabanov I. T. Risk management. -- M.: Finance and statistics, 2006.
4. Blank I.A. Investment management: Training course. - K .: Elga-N, Nika-Center, 2005.
5. Grabovy P.G., Petrova S.I. Risks in modern business. - M.: ALANS, 2004.
6. Granaturov V. M. Economic risk. Essence, methods of measurement, ways of reduction. Business and Service, 2005.
7. Granaturov V.M. economic risk. -- M.: Business and service, 2008.
8. Degtyareva O.I., Kandinskaya O.A. Exchange business. -- M.: UNITI, 2009.
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