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Decline in trade. Russian retail is better to shoot, so as not to suffer in a crisis

Sales Generator

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Often the following situation arises: at first glance, everything is done with high quality, advertising is developed and launched, but the target audience, that is, the people to whom the product is oriented are in no hurry to buy it. Many business owners in this case are perplexed why sales fell and where they made a mistake, overlooked something or did not finish something.

Even if your business is organized in principle correctly, there can be at least four reasons for the decline in sales. If you know why sales have fallen, you can analyze the situation and quickly eliminate the shortcomings.

From this article you will learn:

4 main reasons why sales are falling
9 Reasons for Decline in Online Store Sales

4 main reasons why sales fell

Reason 1. Incorrectly chosen sales strategy and tactics

So, consider the first reason for the drop in sales. It should be noted that it is one of the most common and obvious. An enterprise or outlet has already identified a portrait of a potential client, formed a target audience, analyzed the state of the market and understood exactly who their product or service is aimed at. But still no sales. Accordingly, profits too.

First you need to analyze the chosen strategy and sales tactics in order to understand why sales fell. It is likely that they are simply not suitable for the selected market segment, or that the strategy and tactics are very complex. As a rule, to improve the situation, it is enough just to objectively look at what you are doing, from the position of an outside observer. Then you will understand why sales have fallen, and you will find a way out.

Reason 2. Ill-conceived pricing policy

According to some marketers, the main parameter for the consumer when buying is the cost. But this point of view is wrong. Of course, the price is important, and the buyer always pays attention to it. However, he mainly thinks about what benefits the purchase of the product will bring to him and what problems he can solve with it.

An example is a situation when a person enters a store with an assortment of over 200 phones. But it doesn't matter to him. A potential buyer is busy looking for a model that fully meets his requirements. A professional seller will build a dialogue with the client in such a way that he will sell the phone. He will demonstrate the models chosen by the buyer from the favorable side, talk about the advantages of the company and let him know that the purchase should be made here. If your staff is customer-oriented and always highlights the quality of the product from the perspective of the buyer, then your sales will not decrease. Think about it now as you analyze why sales fell.

Reason 3: Unclear warranty terms

When a person makes a purchase, he must understand that the product that did not suit him can be easily returned. The order of the return procedure itself is important here - the simpler it is, the more the buyer trusts you. Nobody wants to mess with paperwork to get your money.

In accordance with Russian legislation on consumer protection, the goods must be returned within two weeks. As a rule, 14 days is enough for a person to understand whether he likes a thing or not. Whatever happens, if the buyer wants to return the product, he will bring it to the seller one way or another. The law will agree with this provision, since the client is always right.

In this regard, thinking about why sales have fallen, you should pay attention to this parameter as well - perhaps you are providing customers with unclear warranty conditions. Adjust them to make them more understandable and transparent. Your target audience should understand that it will be possible to return the product in which case it will be possible without problems. She will regard this item as your significant advantage.

Remember that in the work of any outlet, returns are inevitable. If you make sure that they are good for your reputation, then you will not think about why sales have fallen.

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Reason 4. Wrong time, wrong place

Why did sales drop? It can be quite difficult to answer this question, and often the problem lies not in you as a bad seller, but simply in the unfortunate location of the outlet. So, if you understand why sales fell, and found out that this happened for the reason indicated above, then what should you do?

Of course, changing the location is much more difficult than eliminating another cause. However, this factor greatly affects the business, and therefore if your sales have really fallen and the store is located unsuccessfully, it is still better to choose a more passable place.

Also, the product can outperform itself - another reason why sales have fallen. That is, the audience is not yet ready to perceive and use your product. Here it is appropriate to give an example of the largest Apple, whose products were simply not in demand for many years - consumers were not ready to accept innovative solutions and advanced technologies. It often takes time before the product enters into the habitual use of the user and becomes clear to him. Alas, it is very difficult to correct the situation.

So, we looked at 4 factors that can cause sales to fall. Note that we have only focused on the main and most common reasons for the decline in consumer demand. In reality, there may be many more, and this should be taken into account. But if you are aware of the mistakes that entrepreneurs often make, then you as a businessman can learn from them and avoid such mistakes in your practice.

Managerial Mistakes That Reduce Sales

Mistake 1. Untimely purchase offer

So, why did your sales drop in your case? Often, managers make the mistake of continuing to persuade the client to purchase the product, while he is already ready to do it. The offer to buy is a whole art, and here you should remember certain nuances and subtleties. The procedure can be compared to fishing, when your active action must be completed exactly on time and not a second earlier or later.

If your company has a competent and professional sales manager, then most likely he knows exactly how to offer a product or service to a client.

Mistake 2. Talking to the buyer not about the benefits for him, but highlighting the advantages of your company

You take pride in your company and the products and services you offer. Of course, any sales manager must love and believe in what he is promoting. In this pledge successful sales. But the client's psychology is such that in the acquisition process he is only interested in his own benefit. Not your product or service, but the benefits and benefits that he will receive after the purchase.

In this regard, when negotiating, a professional manager should highlight the value of a product or service for potential buyer. This approach will allow you to further increase the implementation. And now it is possible that your sales have fallen precisely because of the illiterate actions of the staff.

Mistake 3. Feel free to touch on the topic of cost

Often, managers are embarrassed or afraid to voice the cost to the client. Especially if they themselves consider it overpriced and know that competitors offer lower prices. Managers are afraid to hear from a potential buyer that he is not ready to purchase a product because of its high cost. It is the doubts of the seller that can be the reason that sales have fallen. The client feels that the specialist is not sure what he is saying, and this causes doubts in him at the decision-making stage. “Am I doing everything right? Perhaps I was given little time to think? Perhaps you should ask for a discount?

How can a manager deal with fear and embarrassment to discuss the price? There are two ways:

practice talking confidently about the price;
practice responses to the “expensive” objection and do so until they become automatic.

Mistake 4. Use complex phrases and terms in a conversation with a client

Often, sales managers, especially inexperienced ones, use abstruse phrases and specific terms, long and difficult sentences in their conversation. What does this lead to? A potential client gets tired of perceiving such information, stops delving into what the manager says, and the deal falls through. It is possible that your sales have fallen precisely for this reason.

Why do managers of many companies express themselves in this way? To demonstrate to the client your professional level and savvy in the subject. But what is more important - to show a potential client that you are competent and well versed in the issue, or to sell a product or service? If it is in your interest to sell products, speak in such a way that the person understands exactly what you mean. So you will significantly increase the likelihood of a successful transaction, and you do not have to analyze why sales have fallen.

Mistake 5. Arguing with a client

Disputes on any occasion are a hallmark of our mentality. Why, under no circumstances, should you enter into a dispute with a client? Everything is very simple - in this case, a person simply will not make a purchase.

Even if the client is obviously wrong, don't argue with him, unless, of course, you are interested in selling a product or service. Buyers are often wrong. But it is you who knows the properties and characteristics of your product very well, and not the client who has barely got acquainted with the product. When you express your point of view, then, of course, you are pursuing noble goals - to prove to the buyer that the product is really of high quality, and to sell it. But voice your opinion should be careful not to provoke a conflict. If you argue with many buyers, then this may be the reason why sales in your company have fallen.

Why sales fell during the crisis, and what it can lead to

The strength of any business due to the economic crisis can be significantly shaken. One of the most vulnerable forms of entrepreneurship is mediation, including in trade. Wholesale companies constantly balance between the requirements of manufacturers and the demands of buyers, and the slightest deterioration in the market situation can lead to the failure of the entire system and serious financial difficulties for the company. That is, another reason why sales have fallen may be the onset of the financial crisis.

Here is the order in which the difficulties appear in the channels of movement of goods and how the participants who are connected with each other in trade relations - retail stores and wholesalers - react to them:

Decreasing consumer demand

So your sales are down. With problems in the economy, demand among buyers falls - in the country and at the global level. This happens because organizations are cutting jobs, delaying wages and having difficulty obtaining and paying loans. That is, everything is interconnected.

The retailer receives less money from the sale of products in stores

This is immediately reflected in costly retail entrepreneurial activity. When working capital becomes smaller, it becomes more difficult for a retailer to take and repay bank loans, pay wages to subordinates, pay rent commercial premises and run advertising campaigns.

In such situations, store owners reduce retail prices and increase advertising activity. Costs for these activities operators retail are transferred to wholesale organizations - the retailer requires the wholesaler to further reduce prices and extend the loan period.

Of course, threats to change wholesale supplier and demand the delivery of products on the terms of sale - extreme measures. But they cannot be ruled out. In this case, the reaction is defined financial condition company and its position in the market.

Among other things, a retailer whose sales have fallen begins to get rid of some of the products with the least liquidity. Because of this, the wholesaler cannot offer the entire range of goods to the final buyer.

If the country is in an economic crisis and sales have fallen, especially if the outlook is unfavorable, the retailer chooses a liquid product at the expense of the markup. This causes a change in the assortment in retail outlets - cheaper products prevail on the shelves.

It is not uncommon for retailers to tighten spending requirements as well. wholesalers to promote their products in retail chains. Such retail protection measures are fully justified.

Difficulties affect wholesale

If sales have fallen in the wholesale trade, the return of receivables to suppliers becomes more difficult. Besides, commodity stocks at the enterprise accumulate also in connection with reduction of retail orders. As a result, the turnover of receivables and stocks of goods decreases. This, in turn, leads to deterioration financial indicators companies.

As the firm is forced to lower wholesale rates to maintain sales volume, give customers additional discounts, and increase promotional spending, its profits are drastically reduced. A company that has lost sales finds itself in unfavorable financial conditions, in which it becomes more difficult for it to take and repay loans, and there is a cash gap.

The wholesaler begins to experience a deficit in finance, and therefore cannot effectively and quickly adapt to the changing crisis conditions of the market, maintain an assortment range that is in demand among buyers, and fulfill obligations to partners. Consequently, the profitability of the business decreases and financial problems become more.

9 reasons why sales in the online store fell

So, you wondered why sales in the online store fell. This is where you need to look at the latest research and analysis to determine why your store is not growing in deals and there is no demand from customers. And immediately, we note that it is quite difficult to maintain a leading position in the online trading market.

For three years, Qubit has been collecting customer feedback and complaints from 400 sites. As a result, it was possible to identify 10 main reasons why sales from online stores are falling, as well as to form a portrait of the buyer and his expectations, which often do not correspond to reality.

Below are the top 10 customer complaints about online shopping, according to Qubit research.

Price.

It is possible that your sales have fallen due to inflated prices. As a rule, customers most often complain about them. The results of the study show that the two most common complaints among buyers are “too expensive for the product presented” and “too expensive for me”.

Based on Nomis Solutions performance, shoppers are 7.4 times more sensitive to online pricing than in-store pricing. conventional stores. Therefore, you should take care of the competitiveness of your prices in relation to other companies in the market. In addition, it is important to have a unique trade offer. You need to have something that other businesses don't have.

Assortment range.

Today, a large number of people prefer online shopping, and there are a number of reasons for this. One of them is a wide range of products and the ability to choose what you like. Customers shopping online want to make finding a product easier than in stores. That is, still initial stage site development should take care of a clear user interface of the store and provide users with a convenient and quick search for the desired items.

According to the researchers, the product portfolio needs to be improved by investing in resources such as a recommendation engine, lists of new and seasonal products, and “related products” grouping.

When analyzing why sales have fallen, be sure to pay attention to this indicator and correct the situation if necessary.

The size.

If your online store doesn't have helpful and accurate size charts, then that could be another reason why you're losing sales. However, their presence greatly helps the buyer to navigate and choose the right product. As the owner of an online store, this saves you from the problems associated with returning products, issuing money to customers and from negative emotions on their part.

Waiting period.

When thinking about why sales in your online store have fallen, pay attention to this parameter. The average shopper is impatient and aggressive. He wants the site to load as soon as possible. Complaints about long loading times are very common these days. This indicator and the truth is important, and its importance will only grow in the future. That is why you should definitely take care of the sufficient speed of loading an Internet resource.

Search on the site for the necessary information.

Buyers are very angry if the search engine on the site does not work at the level of Google. In order not to annoy customers, improve and develop the tagging system on your site, add advanced search options.

Availability of products.

Users often complain that the site does not have the products they need. Despite the fact that such complaints have decreased since the last study, this factor can also contribute to a drop in sales in the online store. First of all, customers are dissatisfied with the fact that the desired products are not on the site or they have already ceased to be produced, but they are still presented in the assortment. Often, customers expect that online stores will have a large selection and a wide range of products. If this is not the case for you, then it is likely that sales have fallen in connection with this.

Navigation.

When analyzing why sales have fallen, evaluate the structure of the site. Look at navigation objectively. It is possible that it is difficult for customers to navigate and find necessary goods. Make sure that information about popular products and sales is clearly visible to users, and the site interface is clear and simple, which makes it easy to navigate through sections.

Discounts and sales.

Customers are often dissatisfied with the fact that it is difficult to find windows for entering a discount code on the site. If you are running a promotion, discount on coupons or codes, make sure that a person can quickly navigate and understand what's what. If customers have difficulty using your online resource, sales will drop.

It should be noted that a number of online stores now set temporary restrictions on the purchase of certain goods, due to which the sensitivity of customers to prices is reduced.

Images.

Your online store should look aesthetically pleasing. If you are analyzing why sales have fallen, then it is possible that your site is not attractive enough. The results of eye-tracking studies indicate that visitors first visually perceive the page, examine it, and only then read the text. In other words, beautiful and quality images on the site are very important.

The data obtained in the course of the study indicate that before buying, the client seeks to view as much as possible big photo and product images. In addition, he is more interested in seeing how clothes look on models. The more high-quality pictures and video content you add to the site, the more you stimulate the client to buy.

How to find out why sales fell: analysis and control

In accordance with the formula of Ron Hubbard, who developed one of the most successful management technologies, control always equals income. When you begin to control and carefully analyze this or that process, you influence the situation, saving your strength, money and increasing efficiency. The sales process also needs control and analysis.

In order not to wonder why sales fell, constantly track:

how many potential customers contacted you - the number of people who entered the trading floor, the number of phone calls or visits to the official Internet resource;
how many deals were closed and checks were broken, the number of real customers, that is, those who made a purchase. This indicator is necessary to calculate the conversion and evaluate the professionalism of sellers;
in what volume the average transaction was carried out or issued average check. To obtain this value, the total daily sales volume is divided by the number of transactions and broken checks;
seller conversion rate. The parameter indicates professional level your employees, their knowledge and ability to use the technology of transactions.

If you analyze why sales have fallen, then first of all, evaluate the degree of control over this process. If you do not effectively monitor and control the implementation, then you cannot influence the indicators. Only a tenth of the clients tell the higher management about conflicts and disputes that have arisen, allowing the leading manager of the company to eliminate the shortcomings. The rest of the dissatisfied buyers simply refuse to continue to cooperate with the company.

So how do you control salespeople? First, look at how they communicate with customers. Often, companies, analyzing why sales have fallen, reveal that sellers are primarily to blame. Perhaps they are discourteous with customers, ignore their requests, or are too intrusive. Do not forget that if you do not control discipline, then after some time you will see that you have missed profits due to declining performance. The sales process is managed using two tools - motivation and control.

The most effective means of supervision, according to many managers, is the installation of a video surveillance camera with a microphone in the trading floor or in another area where sellers work. The presence of video cameras allows the manager to monitor the work of salespeople online, assess the situation in the hall and, in general, determine why sales have fallen.

There is nothing surprising in controlling subordinates today, and this method is successfully used by many modern enterprises. That is why, if you want to find out why sales have fallen, it is definitely worth installing video cameras and figuring out what is wrong. If you, as a business owner, realize that sales have fallen due to the fault of employees, you can impose on them disciplinary action or simply fired, taking their place in others.

The next stage of control is the introduction of daily reporting for sales managers. That is, the duties of employees will include daily filling out special forms, which will display information about the volume of products or services sold, the number of calls made or presentations made, and plans for further activities or some other important data for your company will be entered there. . All this information will later be useful to you to evaluate the results of both a particular employee and the entire department.

Another effective method to understand why sales have fallen is to visit the company under the guise of a “mystery shopper”. Thanks to this technique, you will be able to evaluate how the enterprise works from the outside, putting yourself in the place of the client, and find out why your sales have declined.

First, a legend is prepared and coordinated with the management of the enterprise, and then they pay a visit to the company under the guise of a “mystery shopper”. This allows you to understand whether the service is of high quality, whether the employees are qualified, and also to feel the atmosphere. trading floor buyer's eyes. Checking competing firms will help you learn their advantages. Using this information, you will attract new buyers who chose other companies yesterday, and understand why sales in your company have fallen.

How to increase sales after a fall

So, you figured out why sales fell. Now your main task is to improve performance. That is existing clients should consume more of your products or use your services more often. In addition, it is worth working on attracting new customers.

Attracting new customers

In this case, you can lure customers from competitors or develop new market segments. Both in the first and in the second case, certain marketing tricks should be used. The table indicates the tools for implementing each of the above methods. However, some of them are universal.

Looting customers from competitors	Entering new segments
Accompany your potential customer on the way to the store. This method is especially effective if you are in a shopping center. In this case, the consumer who went to your competitor will be interested in your product, because he needs a product, not specific company. But be careful, excessive advertising can scare the client and cause irritation.
Use discounts, bonuses and gifts. Passing by your point of sale, the consumer will see a tempting offer. Even if he first passes by, then, not seeing the benefits of his "pet", most likely, he will return to you. But this technique will only lead to a short-term increase in sales.
Show that your product is better. This can only be done by improving the quality of products and improving service.	Cross events. Agree on a joint promotion with any enterprise. This can be an event (for example, a product tasting in a supermarket), a gift for a purchase from a partner (remember the joint action of the Perekrestok supermarket and the Sunlight jewelry store). The main thing is that the target audience coincides with you and your partner.

Increasing sales with existing customers

There are also two implementation options here - work on increasing consumption and increasing sales conversion.

Increasing sales conversion

Improve the quality of service. The store must have high-quality service so that customers return to it again and again. A good seller will sell anything. A bad seller will not be able to sell anything. There is intra-company marketing - the attitude of the enterprise to its staff. If you create favorable working conditions for your subordinates, then, accordingly, you get more income and do not wonder why sales have fallen. Do not forget about such components as training and motivation.
Pay attention to merchandising. Your sales and profits directly depend on how the product is laid out on the shelves. There is an arm's length rule in marketing. Perhaps your sales have dropped because you are not following it. In accordance with this rule, the buyer in 80% of cases takes a product that is easy for him to reach. If the item is located above or below this level, the sales volume will be insufficient.
Carrying out sales, promotions, issuing bonuses. But remember that thanks to such events, you will increase the conversion, but only for the period of their action.

Increasing consumption

Everything here should be aimed at increasing the average check. In this case, sellers:

Raise the cost. By raising the price of goods, you increase the size of the average check. But the conversion may decrease. Accordingly, your sales and profits will not increase. To avoid such a situation, keep in mind that the slightest change in prices must be justified. That is, it should be clear to the buyer that you increased the cost not because you wanted to, but because you changed the packaging to a more convenient one.
Offer additional or related products or services. After your customer has decided on the product, you can draw his attention to related products. Let's say you sold a bracelet. In this case, it is appropriate to offer a beautiful gift box. The client will not spend a lot of money on such a purchase, but the total check will become larger, which, of course, is only to your advantage.
Conduct loyalty programs. thanks to the map regular customer the size of the average check will not increase, but the number of purchases made by a person in your store will increase. discount cards There are several types - bonus, accumulative, privileged. Each has its own purpose, but all of them are primarily aimed at increasing sales.

What is the principle of the loyalty program? Suppose you are the owner of a grocery store. If a person makes a purchase in the amount of 1000 rubles or more, you give him a loyalty card. There is a similar outlet near your store that does not have its own loyalty program.

Where will there be more customers? Of course you have. People who have your loyalty card will regularly visit the store in order to receive bonuses, discounts or gifts - everything is determined by the type of card. That is, with the help of such programs, you tie customers to you, and they willingly come back. Accordingly, your sales and income grow.

The Bank of Russia explained why the growth of real wages that has begun has not yet stopped the decline in retail trade. One of the factors of this dynamics of the Central Bank called the continuing savings regime

Photo: Ekaterina Kuzmina / RBC

The discrepancy between the resumed growth of wages and the continuing decline in retail turnover, which economists drew attention to last month, can be explained, on the one hand, by the reorientation of some Russians to food in restaurants and cafes, and on the other hand, by the savings regime that persists among the majority of the population, should from the monthly review of the Central Bank "What the trends say" published on Monday.

Last month, economists at VTB Capital proclaimed that the close historical link between retail sales and the real wages of the population are no longer working, and head economist Alfa Bank Natalia Orlova suggested that this may be due to the distribution of income. Real (inflation-adjusted) wages of Russians have been growing in annual terms for four of the last five months (April was the exception), but retail trade turnover has been falling for 18 months in a row, the last months - steadily by 5-6% compared to the previous year, follows from the data Rosstat.

According to the logic of previous years, the growth in wages, which began in February after a multi-month decline, should sooner or later be translated into an increase in consumption, but so far this has not happened. "Beginning recovery wages so far, it has little effect on the dynamics of retail trade turnover,” write analysts from the Bank of Russia. In the previous crisis of 2008-2009, the period of discrepancy between the dynamics of wages and retail trade turnover was significantly shorter, and its value was much smaller, the Central Bank notes. It turns out that this time, we can probably talk about "an increase in the lag with which consumer activity responds to income growth."

The CBR attributes the apparent paradox of falling retail and rising wages to several factors. In part, this may be due to the reorientation of higher-income groups of the population towards catering services instead of buying food for home (on food products accounts for 49% of retail turnover). The turnover of restaurants, cafes and bars, though falling, but at a slower pace: in the second quarter, the figure fell by 2.5% compared to the same quarter last year after falling by 4.9% in the first quarter and 5.5% last year. Most Russians continue to save: in June, the savings rate remained at a high level (13.1% of cash income), which may also explain the lack of clear improvements in the dynamics of retail trade, writes the Central Bank. According to surveys commissioned by the Bank of Russia, in June 66% of respondents reported that they had saved in the last three months on any goods, products or services, and 50% of respondents saw an increase in the scale of savings.

Salaries are likely to grow for those people who already consume enough, Natalia Orlova explained to RBC last week, their additional income is translated into savings. On the other hand, people who could consume more do not have wages rising, and these population groups cannot afford to increase their consumption. “Statistics point to outpacing wage growth in high-yield industries, presumably characterized by a higher propensity of workers to save,” confirms the Central Bank in its review. And Sberbank CIB, in its July Ivanov Consumer Confidence survey (the consumer confidence of the Russian middle class), noted that, according to surveys, with an increase in wages, respondents expect to spend less on food, clothing and household goods and save more on savings.

Reasons for the decline in sales

Ways to improve and develop a wholesale trade enterprise

Considering the turnover trend for the first four months of this year, we can say that the company's turnover has more than halved. In order to determine the reasons for this decrease in orders, external and internal factors should be considered.

One obvious reason is the seasonality of demand. The second is poor-quality work on the organization of purchases. The third is the lack of promotion, advertising.

If we compare the change in the assortment, then the number of commodity items not only did not decrease, it increased. Consider the trends in consumer demand for certain types of goods. So, for example, one of the permanent commodity items is stewed beef. This product was in demand in January, February, March. In April-May, there was a sharp decline in sales of this product. A similar situation occurs with goods that have a short shelf life or require low temperatures for storage. For example, oil sales volumes have fallen sharply, the number of returns and write-offs from marriage has increased.

The figure shows a graph of income from sales of individual varieties of oil. A sharp decline in sales can be observed in the second half of March, just the time of warming.

Τᴀᴋᴎᴍ ᴏϬᴩᴀᴈᴏᴍ, the formation of the assortment is one of the most difficult and time-consuming tasks of the trading enterprise in question. More or less successfully, it was solved thanks to the experience of managers involved in its formation. But the growing competition makes us treat the task of forming the assortment more responsibly.

At the same time, the formation of the assortment rests on another task - the search for suppliers of goods for the most favorable prices. Very often there is a situation when it is not difficult to find a supplier or manufacturer of goods, and it is almost impossible to bargain to a competitive price. To do this, responsible people should be engaged in the search and purchase of goods. It is also necessary to organize the work of the purchasing department in the most efficient way.

One of the tasks is to find buyers. The enterprise under consideration solves this problem exclusively with the help of sales agents. There are undoubtedly advantages to this form. The company does not conduct any advertising. The underestimation of other types of promotion led to the loss of a large part of buyers at the time of the decline in consumer demand. The figure shows the dynamics of the emergence of new customers and the failure of old ones.

Agents are the only means of promotion. In the current situation of competitive war in conditions of reduced demand, advertising should play one of the leading roles. Or the enterprise must analyze and adjust the work of agents, increase the return on their work.

This happened as a result of the fact that retailers have become more careful about the purchase of goods. More stringent requirements for the quality, price of goods. At this stage, most wholesalers work with retailers only on the fact of delivery, which reduces the volume of goods purchased by retailers.

It should also be reviewed pricing policy enterprises. An analysis of the prices of competitive organizations showed that the prices at the enterprise in question are too high. Some goods are sold to stores at a price higher than in the market. This is the result of an undeveloped policy in the field of prices and purchases.

So, to get out of this situation, the company must apply a number of measures aimed at increasing turnover. One of the main steps should be to revise the assortment ͵ to identify the most popular positions and the goods necessary for the purchase. Equally important is the revision of commodity prices. With regard to the procurement of goods, in this case it is extremely important to tighten the procurement policy. And another weakness is the promotion of the company's services.

The Central Bank makes one clumsy attempt after another to stop the rapid fall of our national currency. Every meager success of our financial regulator is followed by a resounding defeat. No one believes in the “ghostly” rebounds of the ruble anymore. People are already thinking that no matter how the ruble falls even lower, but it seems that there is no bottom to the abyss where the ruble falls.

Against this background, the remarks of our officials are noteworthy. Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Government Olga Golodets, who is closer to social sphere expects a decrease in the real purchasing power of wages.

The head of the Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina, urged to look for positive aspects in such a rapid depreciation of the ruble and an increase in the refinancing rate. According to her, the positive moment for the population is that deposit rates in banks will increase and it will be beneficial for people to keep money on deposits, and not shift to a growing dollar or euro. In this story, it's a little confusing where people will get so much money that they want to carry it to banks. Prices in rubles are rising and it looks like this is just the beginning. Real purchasing power is falling, in this case it is not clear where the population will get extra money for deposits. It would be nice to support those who have already taken a loan. With an increase in the cost of food, clothing, and other things, the loan is unlikely to decrease, and there will most likely be even less money left to pay for loans already taken. And what rate can banks offer on deposits? Hardly comparable to the fall of the ruble, when the dollar grows by 10% in one day.

There are not many sectors of the economy in Russia that show a certain growth and are stable for long periods. Retail is one of those industries. It is worth noting that wholesale and retail trade, according to Rosstat data for 2013, is 18% of Russia's GDP, i.e. The industry is extremely important to our economy.

Current fluctuations in the exchange rate, a sharp increase in the refinancing rate, a decrease in purchasing power ... What positive can retail trade find for themselves in the current situation?

“Of course, now the economic situation in the country, including retail trade, is very tense. In general, businesses feel a lot of nervousness due to unpredictability. In fact, in less than a year, the basic economic indicators have changed dramatically - purchasing power has decreased and the national currency has depreciated twice. There is something to be nervous about. But there are paradoxes in the market that we cannot explain. Our company is engaged in the design and construction of stores, our business is very sensitive to the state of the retail market, because. if retail is doing badly, then first of all they freeze the opening of new stores. We do not yet see this in our business, there are still many orders,” Dmitry Akulov, Deputy General Director of Project Line.

It is worth decomposing the retail business into components in order to understand that the situation in the industry can become critical with the euro exchange rate for 100 rubles.

Retail is heterogeneous, each has its own problems and opportunities in a crisis. Grocery retailers, DIY, electronics and other anchor tenants shopping centers, as a rule, rental conditions are very different from small shops, which in shopping malls majority. The anchor tenant has the opportunity to get better offers from the shopping complex in terms of price, location of his store, therefore, in a crisis, they behave a little differently.

So, clothing retailers are the first to suffer from high rental rates. Our rates are among the highest in the world, but this is not so bad, because many retailers, especially in Moscow and St. Petersburg, have contracts with shopping malls pegged to the euro or dollar.

In the current situation, this leads to fantastic costs on the part of the tenant. A happy exception are some shopping complexes in the regions and MEGA, where it is possible to conclude an agreement in rubles.

Until now, not a single large shopping complex has made serious concessions to the business of fixing the exchange rate or converting rental payments into rubles. According to the portal, one of the oldest shopping centers in Moscow in the middle of the year gave quarterly rental discounts, agreeing on a fixed exchange rate for a number of tenants, but only until the New Year.

Small calculations show that if the most common format of a clothing store has an area of approximately 100-150 sq.m, and rental payments range from $2,500 to $5,000 per square meter per year, then it is not difficult to calculate that at a rate of 60 rubles per dollar rent per month will be from 1,200,000 to 2,500,000 rubles per store. It is believed that rent should be no more than 15% of the store's turnover, that is, at this rate, the store should make revenue from 8,000,000 to 16,000,000 per month, and this is unattainable for 80% of stores.

The conclusion suggests itself: if the shopping centers do not meet the needs of the tenants, they will have to close a lot outlets in the mall. This will be a blow to the owners of shopping complexes themselves - it will be difficult to find a replacement in the current market conditions.

For the sake of fairness, it must be said that shopping malls themselves often have foreign currency obligations to their creditors.

During this difficult period, banks should turn their attention to all the players who participate in retail business. Not only for developers, but also for retailers who, by paying rent, help the developer pay off loans taken for the construction of shopping malls..

The scale of closures associated with prohibitive rent is scary to even imagine, and after all, people working in trading companies, which will certainly fall under the reduction.

A letter is circulating on the market, where the tenants of Golden Babylon complain about unbearable lease conditions and are going to create an initiative group to jointly fight the owner of Golden Babylon, Immofinanz, up to civil disobedience. In case of refusal to make concessions, tenants are invited not to pay rent, to arrange a mass strike. A similar letter calling for the creation of a group of rate negotiators was sent to the tenants of the Metropolis shopping center. Restaurateurs - members of the Federation of Restaurateurs and Hoteliers of Russia have agreed on joint actions against the owners of the premises - they propose to boycott those premises that were abandoned by the tenant due to the intransigence of the landlord in the cost of rent.

Looks like the fight is just getting started. Perhaps retailers will unite to defend their interests, as owners of cinemas. Unfortunately, retailers are not characterized by such cohesion as restaurateurs and hoteliers. One thing is clear that after such turbulent events that our currency market, the rental market must necessarily undergo significant changes.

The government has proposed standard contract apartment rentals. Why not regulate the commercial space rental market? It should be noted that the owners of the premises also insist on the indexation of foreign exchange contracts. 3-5-7-10% - this seemingly reasonable level of indexation is possible in developed markets that do not experience such dramatic falls in the national currency. In addition, the underlying mechanism for a constant increase in rent is a driver of inflation in Russia. According to the portal, many retailers want more government involvement in the regulation of the commercial space rental market, up to the introduction of a standard commercial space lease agreement.

“The merger of Russian retailers seems unlikely, since, in fact, it neither solves the problems associated with an increase in rental rates and purchase prices, nor does it affect their root cause - the fall of the ruble due to changes in exchange rates. At the same time, in fact, Russian retailers are already part of the RSPP, which can defend their interests,” says Yuri Frolishchev, head of the VirtDress Internet project.

Another problem is that retailers of foreign brands will be forced to raise prices themselves, as selling prices suppliers are pegged to either the dollar or the euro. The expenditure part grows with the entrepreneur and is invested in the price of the goods that the consumer pays. Can you imagine that Levi's jeans, which until recently cost about 5,000 rubles, will now cost more than 10,000 rubles? People are simply not psychologically ready for such prices, and their salaries do not increase from the fall of the ruble. Therefore, they will buy less.

Retailers in their mass, of course, reduce purchases of new collections in order to buy at least something for the new season, because. many simply do not have enough revenue to buy a new collection, while others are afraid that after such a fall, people will not accept the new prices and there will be a failure in sales in next year.

With a reduction in purchases, those retailers who focus on the sale of past collections will also suffer. Their business is arranged in such a way that they buy unsold goods in Russia from companies at a big discount and then sell it in their stores. For example, the Surname brand works according to this principle. These companies, with small purchases of those retailers from whom they buy goods, run the risk of being left without a sufficient amount of goods, because. less will be purchased next season. Large online players such as KupiVIP will also suffer, which may also face a shortage of a wide range of goods due to small purchases from those who supply them with goods.

Most retailers are heavily indebted for goods, most often they refinance under new product and thus increase momentum, tk. the cost of the goods is the lion's share in the price of the goods and for the turnover you need to take a loan. The increased refinancing rate puts an end to these hopes of retailers. In addition to the problems listed above, they add the problem of unavailability of credit. And before, our loans were with exorbitant interest, but now they can fly into space after the dollar and the euro and become completely unavailable for business.

Retailers announced in the autumn that they were reducing the number of planned store openings for 2015. With such market turbulence, many market players will prefer to cut even low-margin businesses and wait for the situation to develop, and even more so to slow down their investment plans.

“In February-March, networks that do not have inventory will significantly increase prices - by about 70%. A decline in sales is expected, there will be no March surge, which is usually characterized by increased demand among buyers. Quantitatively, sales will lose more than 50% compared to last year. For retailers, the outlook for the next two years is very poor. Only about 70% of the market players in this segment will be able to survive the crisis,” says Margarita Zrozhevskaya, COO of Tvoye.

“Undoubtedly, changes in the income and solvency of the population affect the dynamics and situation on consumer market, since, in fact, a consumer can buy a product only if there is effective demand, that is, it is trite if he has extra money. Therefore, the current situation will lead to the fact that the Russians will spend less, mainly buying next year only what they need. Although before the New Year one should just expect an increase in sales growth, since, realizing the high probability of an increase in prices for imported goods: cars, household appliances, clothes, bags, perfumes - the consumer tends to buy them at the old price,” Yuri Frolishchev believes.

Despite the fact that everything is so sad, there are companies that can win in a time of crisis. These are large international companies that themselves operate on Russian market. They will, of course, face the same problems as our dealers, but today they have no problem with the increase in the purchase price of the goods. Their goods are initially denominated for them in their currency, usually in euros. There is only a matter of choosing the right price for a turbulent market. Russian prices have always been higher than European or American prices in all brands due to higher rental and logistics costs. These companies will receive the best shots from failed companies, the best places in shopping malls and even new loyal customers, if they have enough free cash for the purchase of non-essential items.

"We see in the future economic changes opportunities for our business. Our model is an online marketplace with strong teams of buyers operating in European countries (Germany, France, Italy), which allows us to work with international fashion players and post offers from about 60 warehouses from 10 countries of the world on the KupiVIP website every day. These are about 1500 suppliers and 2000 warehouses from different countries monthly. In addition, Russian retailers are now increasingly turning to the help of discount players to sell their warehouse balance. Particularly due to the growing rental rates, it is now easier for traditional players to turn to online channels that can quickly solve the problems of warehouses. And the principle of sales at KupiVIP - short-term promotions lasting 2-3 days, allows you to sell such a quantity of products in a short time that an offline channel would sell for several weeks, ”says Vladimir Kholyaznikov, General manager KupiVIP.

“We carry out quite a lot of projects, and in different sectors, from luxury to mass market, over 160 projects have already been completed this year, i.e. on such a large number of projects, it is possible to derive some patterns for the market as a whole. According to our observation, they feel the best foreign companies- they get a significant benefit from the fall of the ruble, because their capital cost of opening a store in euro terms has fallen sharply, and prices for construction market until they responded. Prices for services and materials in construction and design are rising, but still not as rapidly as the ruble is falling. The crisis will end sooner or later, and with it the period low prices to open a store, so strong players use it to the maximum. The window of opportunity has its own duration, market professionals are sensitive and instantly use the situation to their advantage,” notes Dmitry Akulov.

"Looking to the future, the best option for distribution is to work with Russian companies, which are also manufacturers of goods themselves. Work with the Russian manufacturers implies no additional costs associated with customs clearance, transportation, changes in exchange rates, which allows you to reduce the purchase price and thus reduce the margin on the product, not only maintaining the amount of profit, but also increasing it, since a lower retail price will attract more buyers, ”Yuri is sure Frolishchev.

“TVOYO stores will definitely remain on the market, as this is a Russian factory. If in Russian companies and prices will rise, then quite a bit. Season very /winter 2015 will be very scarce in the offer. Expensive things will not be available in price either here or in Europe. So my forecast is mostly pessimistic,” Margarita Zrozhevskaya shares her opinion.

This is not the first crisis that our economy and our retailers are experiencing. But for many, this may indeed be the last. The previous one was not so noticeable, since over the past 5 years, rent has grown by 30-50% only due to indexation, plus the growth of the currency was not so significant.
Now it can be predicted that the mass sales held on the eve of the New Year, plus the restriction of lending by banks, will eventually result in a lack of sales in the 1st and 2nd quarters of 2015.

“Purchasing power is falling, rents are rising, and the Russian retailers are having a tough time. If there is an increased demand for electronics, then there is no such excitement in the fashion industry. Many will not withstand the pressure of the market and, as a result, there will be many vacant areas that we once could not fill for certain reasons. Inventive Stores Retail Group will develop in a crisis, we see for ourselves that against the backdrop of a crisis, you can always extract positive moments,” says Denis Stenko, Development Director trading network, Inventive Retail Group.

Shopping as a cultural phenomenon may not be. Various trade marks have their audience and, accordingly, the economy in each city of Russia or area of the metropolis (Moscow or St. Petersburg). There is an opinion that people will go online to shop where goods can be found cheaper, but the Internet is not a 100% replacement for a traditional store for a huge range of brands or product categories. For a blouse you need to go to the store.

Sometimes it seems that it is better to shoot Russian retail so that it does not suffer in a crisis. Retailers develop their business in spite of everything: taxes, the economic situation, sanctions - there is no end to these problems. But the past tense shows that the creativity of our people, patience and diligence truly work wonders. Everyone is coming out of the crisis stronger - this is the law, so it will be this time.

« New Year It will be difficult, but six years ago, in 2008, we already experienced something similar, memories are fresh in all companies and all companies that have gone through the previous crisis have a plan of action in such a situation, recalls Dmitry Akulov. - It will be hard, but interesting! As they say, not the first time. Happy New Year everyone!”

Source: Rosstat

Retail trade statistics do not yet give rise to talk about stabilization. The rate of decline in sales of food and non-food items remain at the 5% level. The hopes of officials for markets and fairs with allegedly cheap goods are not justified either. In this segment, the decline in sales is even faster than in large retail chains. The fall in personal consumption in 2016-2017 can only be compensated by 2020, experts say.

The pace of the monthly decline in retail trade remains one of the most worrying indicators for the Russian economy. Last July, the retail turnover was 5% less than in July last year. Since the beginning of the year, the rate of decline in retail sales fluctuated in the range from minus 6.4% to minus 4.9% with no clear signs of slowing down. And for the first seven months of the year, the average reduction in retail turnover was, according to Rosstat, minus 5.6%.

This statistic takes into account the drop in sales of both food and non-food products. Moreover, the rate of decline in sales of non-food products is slightly higher - from minus 7.1% to minus 5%. Whereas sales of food products have been declining since the beginning of the year at a rate of minus 3.2% to minus 6%.

Analysts at Oxford Economics predict that the personal consumption of Russians will decrease by 5% this year, and by another 0.1% next year. In the next two years, consumption will begin to recover at a rate of 2.4% and 3.5%, respectively. Thus, the drop in consumption that will occur in 2016–2017 can only be compensated by 2020. And it will take at least two more years to compensate for the consumption losses of 2014-2015.

It is clear that with such gloomy forecasts, investments in the development of a retail network in the Russian Federation become even more risky. “The biggest decline in retail sales is observed in large cities, while regions that were more vulnerable in 2009 are now showing relative stability,” experts at Cushman & Wakefield say. “One of the reasons for this paradox is that in large cities the family budgets of the most active groups of the population are tied by mortgage payments. Therefore, even a slight decrease in income leads to a significant drop in consumption,” experts say. Retail in large cities is facing difficult times, as the volume of mortgage loans in the Russian Federation is growing and its share of total lending to the population has approached 40%, predict Cushman & Wakefield.

Indeed, the decline, for example, in the capital's trade is more than twice the average Russian figures. In the second quarter, the capital's retail decreased by 14.9% compared to the same period last year. For comparison: in the first quarter of 2016, retail in the metropolis decreased by 11.5%, and for the whole of last year it collapsed by more than 17%.

It seems that Russian officials are unable to stop the crisis drop in the standard of living. Instead, they are making strange attempts to revive forgotten trade formats like weekend fairs or local markets where only the producers themselves should trade. " Marketplaces with minimal margins should be not only in the cities,” say representatives of the ruling party. - Our agricultural producer is very interested in selling perishable products, conditions for alternative trade should be provided in the regions; these are agricultural fairs where they could sell their products without a trade margin ”(see).

However, hopes for markets and fairs are clearly not justified. In July, the sale of goods on retail markets and fairs on average in the country was 13.6% lower than in July last year, according to Rosstat. At the same time, the turnover of trade organizations decreased over the same period not so much - “only” by 4.3%. So, contrary to the hopes of officials, exotic forms of trade are not able to compete with industrial retail chains.