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Many people are now interested in the forecast of the ruble exchange rate for 2018. Will there be a new depreciation? What will happen to the dollar in 2018? What will happen to the ruble? Is ruble devaluation possible in 2018? We all remember how "fever" the ruble since the fall of 2014. The rate on the board of exchange offices could change several times within an hour. The situation was close to panic. Is repetition possible? Let's try to figure it out. Currently, there are several main factors affecting the ruble exchange rate: the price of oil, the policy Central Bank Russian Federation, payments on external debt, geopolitical situation. There are also a number of smaller circumstances that contribute to the behavior of the ruble, but they must also be taken into account. So, let's look at the key points that help to understand what the ruble is waiting for.

Oil price on world markets

The oil factor is the main one for the ruble exchange rate. From the spring of 2014, oil first halved, then, after a slight rebound, the process continued, the price even dropped below $30 per barrel, and it was during this period that the strongest weakening of the ruble occurred. Revenues to the Russian budget directly depend on the cost of hydrocarbons; in the country's export basket, oil and gas together accounted for about 45% at that time. The cost of gas is linked to the price of oil, so it repeats its changes with some lag. Such a decrease could not but affect the ruble exchange rate, because the budget is calculated in the national currency.

Political factor

After the well-known events of the spring of 2014, Western countries imposed sanctions against Russia. The strongest pressure on the ruble came from limited access to financing. Previously Russian companies could take out loans foreign market at low interest rates. The loss of this source of credit led to a deterioration in the financial situation and investment attractiveness many companies, resulting in a significant outflow of foreign investment.

External debt

Russia's debt has always been at a relatively low level. However, in the fall of 2014, the scheduled repayment of a large amount coincided with the start of the devaluation. State and private companies were forced to buy the currency on the market, thereby further accelerating the growth of the dollar and the euro.

In general, the impact of this coincidence was short-lived, but it played a significant role in the currency crisis of 2014.

These factors together led to a massive decline in the ruble. But we are interested in the question of how much the dollar will cost in 2018 in Russia. To understand this, it is necessary to consider an additional powerful lever of influence on the foreign exchange market.

Central Bank Policy

The Central Bank of Russia during 2014 alone raised the key rate 6 times, bringing it to 17% by the end of the year. Then, after some stabilization, the Central Bank during 2015 repeatedly reduced the rate, which by mid-summer was already 11%. To further support the ruble, the Central Bank carried out foreign exchange interventions. The opinion of experts is almost unanimous - all the actions of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation were correct.

Having considered key parameters complex driving forces foreign exchange market Let's try to assess the prospects of the ruble for 2018. New large one-time payments on external debt in a hot mode are not yet expected. As for the political moment, here everything bad that could happen has already happened. The likelihood of introducing new sanctions, as well as strengthening existing ones, is not very high. But the current sanctions may well be relaxed. If we assume that by 2018 nothing incredible will happen in the world, then for the forecast of the ruble exchange rate it remains to consider only two main parameters: the cost of oil and the policy of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation.

The growth of oil was due not only to the growth of world industry, it was additionally spurred on by the derivatives market (derivatives financial instruments), attracting speculative money to the oil pricing segment. Constant growth The cost of oil at one time served as an incentive to search not only for alternative energy sources, but also for alternative methods of oil production. It is worth mentioning the global trend of increasing environmental standards. Wind, solar energy, the use of tidal wave energy, electric motors in transport - all these areas developed gradually, without much impact on the growth of oil prices. A real blow to prices was caused by a technological breakthrough in the field of shale hydrocarbon production. The age of this method of extraction is very small, its cost was constantly decreasing, and the continuous discovery of new deposits made it possible to increase production at an unprecedented pace. Producers of classical oil have a serious problem.

It was possible to suppress new competitors by lowering the price, because. classical production is still cheaper than shale. But shale oil producers cut costs so quickly that they managed to maintain profitability even at prices below $40 a barrel. But those countries that produce oil in the usual way, found themselves in an unenviable position, some were plunged into a deep crisis (for example, Venezuela). As a result, OPEC and some countries outside the organization (including Russia) signed an agreement to reduce oil production. Even just the beginning of negotiations on this reduction led to an increase in oil, and subsequently the growth continued. But shale oil producers, who did not take on any obligations, continue to increase production, the rise in prices has only played into their hands.

Thus, two powerful limiters have formed on the market: the growth of oil prices is constrained by an increase in shale production, and the decrease is restrained by a reduction in production by OPEC countries. There is another consideration that plays in favor of the increase - the growth of world hydrocarbon consumption, it is proportional to economic development. Opinions of experts regarding the further behavior of oil quotes differ.

However, among the reviews of most analysts of the largest investment companies, one can most often see that with a one-year horizon they predict a price range of $50-60 per barrel for Brent.

It is worth mentioning another organization, on whose decisions a lot depends, the US Federal Reserve System. Since 2008, the Fed has pursued a policy of "quantitative easing" (QE), one of the consequences of which, along with extremely low interest rates in the United States, was an increase in the inflow of dollars into world markets, which led to additional growth in commodity assets. Recently, the Fed has stopped QE and started raising key rates. Made in 2017, the latest statements by the leaders of the organization indicate the intention to continue the cycle of increase, these actions may contain the growth of oil.

Now let's touch on the next important lever for regulating the exchange rate of the ruble - the policy of Russia's financial authorities. The main measure of influence here is the key bank rate. It is currently much higher than in most developed countries. The high rate does not allow the ruble to weaken, but it also has a negative side - the rise in the cost of loans for domestic companies, which hinders economic growth.

And finally, consider the last factor - the carry trade (carry trade). The essence of this speculative strategy of international players is that money rushes to countries with the highest key rates, where they usually invest in bonds. On the wave of massive investor calls, the ruble is strengthening. But the reverse process will reverse the movement of quotes, and with the simultaneous massive withdrawal of the currency, a sharp collapse of the ruble is possible. Latest news from the markets show that the carry trade is far from over, but it is not worth waiting for it to last for many years.

So, what do we have to assess the prospects of the ruble for 2018? Now the ruble looks stronger than it should be. This harms the country's budget, because. the price of oil, expressed in rubles, goes down. The Central Bank will lower the rate, the process is already underway and will continue. Direct redemption of foreign currency on the market is also possible (the statements of the country's first vice-premier contain such hints). These measures may slightly devalue the ruble.

The general, not very favorable economic situation in the country will also contribute to the weakening. But the likelihood of a new collapse is very small.

Now let's move on to the exact numbers. Fresh forecasts of the most authoritative financial institutions countries are:

1. The Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation assumes that the average exchange rate of the ruble against the dollar in 2018 will be 64.
2. Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation: experts from this ministry predict further strengthening of the ruble and by the end of 2018 they will not be surprised at a rate below 50 rubles per dollar.
3. Vnesheconombank: Here, the forecasts for 2018 regarding the exchange rate are as follows: 55 rubles per dollar.
4. Russian Academy of National Economy, Gaidar Institute and Academy foreign trade in a joint commentary, they predicted a rate of 57 rubles per dollar for 2018.

These are forecasts from state structures, and they agree on one thing - the ruble will be stable, the second wave of devaluation is not expected. Financial analysts of private companies are less optimistic, their forecasts range from 55 to 200 rubles per dollar. However, the most negative assessments imply extremely unfavorable foreign policy scenarios.

The consensus regarding the Russian currency is as follows: in the absence of strong changes in the global situation, we can expect that the dollar/ruble exchange rate in 2018 will be in the range of 50-65.

Stanislav Werner, Head of Department financial company Private Solutions Singapore Castle Family office

The aggravation of the situation in the Middle East and the consequences of the policy of the Bank of Russia - these two factors give the ruble the opportunity to end the year more or less worthily than one might have expected in the summer, during the period of expanding sanctions.

The scenario of the weakening of the national currency does not change, only the timing of its implementation and, apparently, the trajectory change. In the coming weeks, the dollar may renew its lows this year (55.71 rubles), and the euro will shed the “extra” 1.5 rubles. However, starting from December, there will be a "retribution" - all those highs that were shown by the dollar and the euro in the summer will be passed up, but this is already the history of the first, maybe second quarters of next year. In the meantime, the sellers of the ruble will be kept in check by high oil prices and expectations of easing the policy of the Bank of Russia.

A positive scenario will develop on the energy market for the time being due to an increase in the military premium - Iraq may “explode” due to the confrontation between the Kurds and Shiite Arabs (after the attempts of Iraqi Kurdistan to become an independent state), as well as the prospect of returning sanctions against Iran. In total, the market may lose about 1.6 million barrels per day. The likelihood of negative scenarios is low, but the market, one way or another, will be forced to play it safe.

The policy of the Central Bank is an additional factor in favor of the temporary manifestation of the strength of the ruble. For now, foreign investors do not need to take profits, since the decline in inflation to 3% in annual terms creates expectations of an aggressive reduction in the key rate by the Bank of Russia.

In December, we will pass the peak of payments on external debt for two years (about 13 billion rubles), there are almost no free dollars in the banking system, so the national currency will have a hard time and all the strengthening that will be accumulated in the coming weeks will quickly come to naught. And then there will be only one way, the way up - for both the dollar and the euro. You can look at the forecasts of the Ministry of Economic Development, which predicts a gradual increase in the dollar to 64.7 rubles by the end of 2018. There are high chances that they will be true.

Positive on the oil wave

Artem Deev, Leading Analyst at the financial company AMarkets: On the this moment the dollar-ruble pair demonstrates a local trend aimed at strengthening the ruble exchange rate. You need to understand that the reason for the growth of the Russian currency lies not in the improvement of the domestic economic situation in Russia, but in the positive dynamics of oil prices. As of mid-October, Brent oil quotes are one step away from the maximum since 2015, which is at the level of $60 per barrel.

Given the acuteness of the Middle East information background, the dollar may remain stuck in the range of 57-58 rubles until the end of October. In November, oil and, accordingly, the ruble may be supported by optimistic expectations that the next meeting of the participants in the OPEC+ energy pact will make it possible to find additional ways to increase the effectiveness of the agreement to reduce hydrocarbon production.

In December, it will become clear that the OPEC+ deal is still not working, and the growing volumes of oil production in the United States, Libya and Nigeria reduce its effectiveness to zero. In other words, the end of 2017 for the oil industry could be very bad, with the potential for Brent to drop below $50 a barrel. In this case, the ruble is forced to devalue to at least 60 against the dollar. Given the above, for those who plan to make money before the New Year, now is the time to buy foreign currency.

The Central Bank can weaken the ruble

Evgeny Volkov, financial analyst: The ruble may strengthen to 55-56 rubles per dollar in the event that oil still breaks through 60 dollars per barrel and strengthens at this point. We see that the OPEC agreement a year later still bears fruit, and shale deposits do not make it possible to compensate for the lack of raw materials, which governs the cartel agreement. This is a favorable moment for the ruble. We can see levels of 64-65 rubles for the euro against the backdrop of the crisis in Spain.

But one cannot rule out interventions by the Central Bank, which may start buying up foreign currency in order to prevent excessive strengthening of the ruble. Although such optimism can easily be replaced by pessimism if the raw material fails to gain a foothold on the frontiers where it is now. In principle, at these levels, you can already buy dollars.

Foreign loans against the ruble

Georgy Vashchenko, analyst at Freedom Finance investment company: The main influence on the foreign exchange market until the end of the year will have an external background - the dynamics of oil prices and the situation in the financial markets. If oil remains in the range of $50-60 until the end of the year, then, in my opinion, there are no serious risks of the ruble weakening. The fall of oil can only cause a storm on the world stock exchanges. The probability of a strong correction before the end of the year, in my opinion, is relatively low.

Markets in the US, Germany, Japan are growing steadily. Companies show good profit dynamics, and this pushes the markets up even more. However, the rise in oil prices is limited by the fact that the imbalance between supply and demand, although reduced by 1.4 million barrels. per day and will last for a long time.

The negative factor for the ruble is the reduction in the trade balance and the growth in demand for the currency from the Ministry of Finance and for payments on foreign loans. The easing of the Central Bank's monetary policy also reduces the attractiveness of Russian ruble bonds. By the end of the year, I expect the USDRUB rate to be in the range of 57-60, and the euro to the range of 67-71.50.

The currency will rise in price by the New Year

Ivan Karyakin, investment analyst at Global FX: There are enough conditions on the side of the ruble to maintain its stability. Oil is likely to remain in the range of $52-60 per barrel. The most likely scenario for the dollar / ruble pair by the end of the year is to remain in the range of 56-60 rubles / dollar. Access to the higher corridor, 60-62 rubles, is possible for a short time at the end of the year. Behind last years several times on the eve of the New Year holidays there was a slight strengthening of the currency, this is due to the purchase of foreign currency by citizens for New Year trips. Therefore, if you are going to New Year abroad, it is better not to postpone the conversion of rubles into euros and dollars.

As for the European currency, by the end of the year we can see the rate of 66-69 rubles for one euro.

The question of what will happen to the dollar in the near future worries not only economists, but also ordinary citizens. Such interest is due, first of all, to the fact that the economic stability of Russia largely depends on the exchange rate of the American currency against the domestic ruble.

This dependence is determined by many external and internal factors, the main of which are the price of oil and gas on the world market, as well as currency quotes on the stock market. What forecasts do experts make regarding the US dollar for 2018, let's try to figure it out in this review.

What is the trend of the dollar in the near future?

In 2017, the US dollar appreciated significantly. This was influenced by several events at once:

• approval by the House of Representatives of the tax reform adopted in the Senate on December 19 last year;
• increase in the rate of the Federal Reserve System (FRS);
• implementation of the Fed's project aimed at reducing the cash dollar supply;
• US President Donald Trump signed a bill to ease the taxation of citizens.

In addition, in European countries in Lately there is an economic recession associated with a crisis within the conglomerate (the intentions of some states to withdraw from the European Union have been announced), an increase in unemployment, and an influx of a large number of Muslim refugees from the warring powers. All this contributes to the depreciation of the euro and at the same time the strengthening of the dollar in the global financial market.

Dollar exchange rate forecast for the first quarter of 2018

As the demand for dollar mass in the world continues to increase, the United States currency will only strengthen in the near future. This is precisely the forecast made by reputable international experts for the spring of 2018. As for the dollar-ruble ratio, the price of oil is considered to be the main factor of influence here, since Russia is one of the largest suppliers"black gold" in the world.

Predictions for the current spring based on the forecasts of leading stock analysts (the estimated cost of 1 dollar in rubles is indicated):

• March - 58.35
• April - 59.87
• May - 61.23

At the same time, some experts predict that with the victory of V.V. Putin in the presidential elections on March 18, 2018, the growth of the domestic currency or its stabilization is also possible. Which of the financiers was right, the near future will show.

Expert forecast for summer 2018

The opinions of economists regarding the exchange rate of the RUB / USD pair for the summer of 2018 were divided:

• Some experts predict the quotation of the domestic currency at a level not exceeding 56 rubles. per dollar.
• Other experts say that the US money exchange rate in the summer will fluctuate in the range from 57 to 62 rubles.

By months, it may look like this (the estimated cost of 1 dollar in rubles is indicated):

• June - 61.89
• July - 62.93
• August - 60.88

Dollar exchange rate forecast for autumn 2018

The forecast for the fall for the Russian currency against the US currency will largely depend not only on the price of oil and gas, but also on how fruitful this season will be. Economic analysts make the following predictions for this period (the estimated cost of 1 dollar in rubles is indicated):

• September - 62.98
• October - 61.25
• November

$ exchange rate at the end of 2018

The end of 2018 will be marked by the following important financial events.

Politicians are currently financial analysts and ordinary citizens cannot understand what will happen to the dollar this year. They argue that the American currency can behave completely unpredictably, which will either cause irreparable losses or give rise and wealth.

By the way, citizens of the country know firsthand about the currency crisis, but they do not always understand its causes and other fundamental factors. It is worth understanding that fluctuations in the exchange rate of this particular currency alien to us often cause instability in the currency market in our state, which undermines the state's economy.

After conducting a series of VTsIOM, it was clarified that ordinary citizens Russian Federation they don't pay too much attention to how the US currency will behave. They are only interested in one thing, in order to strengthen the position of the Russian ruble as much as possible, giving, finally, stability, confidence in tomorrow and prosperity.

However, the country's government claims that the ruble, on the contrary, is incredibly stable and even somewhat overstrengthened. Although the memories of how a couple of years ago the value of the US dollar doubled sharply against the national currency are still too fresh. It is precisely because of this factor that the entire economic system Russian Federation.

It is because of this unexpected event that ordinary people and financial analysts carefully monitor the state of the US currency in order to find out how it will behave this year. This is done precisely in order to prepare for all possible scenarios and secure your business.

The main reasons for the financial crisis in the country include the introduction of unfair economic sanctions against our country. It was economic sanctions that contributed to the fact that the country's domestic industry was greatly undermined and banking system, while employees of national banking institutions had to raise interest rates on loans and loans to unimaginable heights. It is because of this that the citizens of the Russian Federation have almost completely stopped taking loans for development own business, the purchase of a car or real estate.

Quite often, there is information in the press that sanctions against the country will soon be lifted. It is worth clarifying that no confirmation has yet been received from Western countries, so for the time being there is no need to talk about the stabilization of the Russian ruble exchange rate against the US dollar, since the situation with sanctions is still in better side does not change.

It should be noted that the dollar exchange rate directly depends on the cost of a barrel of oil on the world market. The filling of the budget of the Russian Federation will also depend on the price of oil. The fact is that the cost of a barrel is currently at a fairly low level, but the forecast indicates that in 2018 it will cost about fifty dollars and will gradually stabilize.

Stabilization of oil products will have a positive impact on the dollar, but the behavior of Russia's main banking institution decides a lot. At the same time, from the first days of the global financial crisis, the Central Bank of the country decided to switch to a floating exchange rate of the Russian ruble. It is these factors that influence the fact that interest rates on loans skyrocketed, so politicians and financial experts decided to try to stabilize the national currency in other ways that are safe for citizens of the Russian Federation.

Dollar exchange rate forecast for 2018

Against the background of the above factors, it is possible to predict what will happen to the dollar in Russia during the current 2018. Spring sociological survey showed interesting results, according to which the Russians put forward forecasts about what would be the framework for buying and selling the US dollar.

After summarizing all the information acquired, it can be clarified that, on average, the value of the American currency next year can be no more than fifty-seven Russian rubles per dollar. At the same time, the economic situation in the country will gradually stabilize. In the event that the exchange rate is rapidly declining, then in the Russian Federation there will definitely be a positive trend.

At the same time, financial analysts and politicians point out that the exchange rate of the American currency in 2018 may be at least fifty-eight or fifty-nine Russian rubles per unit. Citizens of the Russian Federation are not so optimistic, they claim that they are unstable about currencies, so they simply do not understand which one to keep their savings in.

This uncertainty is also related to the unstable cost of a barrel of elite grades of oil, to which the US dollar is directly pegged. Already at the end of this year, an OPEC specialist predicts a deficit that will develop in the world oil market. The fact is that the active extraction of black gold in the United States and the decrease in its supplies from the Arab countries, Nigeria and Libya do not allow to balance it. It will take years to balance these indicators, which, of course, our country and the world as a whole do not have.

By the way, if the OPEC agreement is disrupted, there may be problems associated with bad consequences for the Russian ruble. Also, the value of the dollar can be significantly affected by geopolitical and political factors, the development of the economy of other countries, including China. Much depends on what will happen with the sanctions of Western countries and the States, which are directed not only against Russia, but also against other countries of the world.

Russia's budget for 2018 in dollars

Now the economic crisis in the country is gradually weakening its grip, so the country is gradually starting to recover economically. Already today, one can argue about what the state of the budget of the Russian Federation for 2018 will be, considering its content not only in the national currency, but also in US dollars. It is even possible to predict in advance exactly how the political authorities will dispose of the funds received in the treasury. in cash this year to support the prosperity of the country.

Again, every person in the country is sure that the filling of the treasury is directly related to the cost of a barrel of oil, although members of the Government point out that this is not entirely true. However, they do not deny the fact that the increased cost of black gold will necessarily ensure an increased filling of the state's internal accounts.

At the same time, the growth of the gross domestic product is 1.7%, which means that we can say with confidence that Russia has almost recovered from the global crisis. In 2018, analysts predict that budget revenues will amount to at least fourteen trillion rubles, but self-sufficiency cannot yet be expected. It is worth noting that the deficit of the Russian state budget may amount to two trillion in national currency.

At the same time, inflation, the growth of which should not exceed four percent, directly depends on the cost of oil. It is expected that it will not be higher than forty dollars per barrel, however, no one can promise that it will not deviate up or down.

The 2018 budget of the Russian Federation has already been adopted, so the population can hope that its deficit will be minimal compared to last year. At the same time, the budget of the state of the reserve type was almost completely spent, so in 2018 it will not be possible to find additional funds.

At the same time, the budget deficit indicates that expenditures have significantly exceeded government revenues. For example, in 2017, the amount of expenses has already amounted to 16 trillion 488 billion rubles, while revenues do not exceed 13 trillion 488 billion Russian rubles. In the event that a complete recalculation of the budget for 2018 in US currency is carried out, then two hundred and eighteen billion US dollars will be obtained.

Representatives of the authorities are striving to reduce the amount of external debt, which has already amounted to at least three billion in US currency. In the event that nothing is done with the external debt, the country's economy will collapse and by 2019 it will exceed the level of twenty percent.

It is worth noting that the Russian budget for 2018 will not be very impressive even in US dollars. At the same time, it is quite clear that budgetary funds in foreign currency cannot be enough to provide social and other spheres of life with them.

At the same time, Dmitry Medvedev has already initiated a series of discussions on the basics of the budget in the period from 2018 to 2020. He argued that state budget expenditures would not exceed expenditures, including those in US currency.

What will the dollar exchange rate be like in 2018

It is worth noting that the behavior of the US currency in 2018 can develop according to several basic scenarios:

• 1 dollar = 62 Russian rubles, which is possible only in those cases when a barrel of elite grade oil is set at forty or more dollars;
• 1 dollar = 57 Russian rubles, which will be real if elite grades of oil rise in price to sixty or more US dollars;
• 1 dollar = 80-84 Russian rubles, which is possible in cases where the cost of oil drops rapidly, while the economy in the country is shaken and collapses;
• 1 dollar = 70 rubles, so in reality there will be a rapid outflow of capital and the ruble will become stronger and more stable.

It should be noted that the dollar, according to the base scenario, will rise, but gradually. At the same time, the average annual exchange rate of this currency is likely to reach the level of 68.9 Russian rubles for one US dollar in 2018.

In the end next year the exchange rate may be 70.8 Russian rubles for one dollar.

In the event that the scenario is somewhat different, the so-called target, the rate will be slightly lower than in the previous version, however, the dynamics of the dollar growth, on the contrary, will be higher. At the beginning of 2018, the exchange rate is predicted to reach 69.6 Russian rubles per dollar. At the end of this year, it will be possible to purchase an American dollar for 70.3 rubles.

dollar chart in 2018

It is worth noting that many Russians are worried about what will happen to the dollar in 2018. This is due to some options, and often because they have no idea what currency will be the most profitable to store financial savings.

Financial analysts point to the fact that the chart of the US dollar will develop in such a way that in 2018 it will freeze at the mark of this year, namely, at fifty-nine rubles. At the same time, there is already a forecast for 2019 regarding the fact that for one dollar you will have to pay at least fifty kopecks more, namely, fifty-nine rubles and fifty kopecks. This is not much, but for those who are going to keep their savings not in national, but in American currency, it will be useful information.

The US dollar chart is made three years ahead and indicates that the rate will be quite stable and predictable. At the end of 2018, financial analysts expect a rate of approximately 70.80 Russian rubles. The curve of the financial schedule will inexorably creep up, incredibly pleasing to business representatives, politicians, and ordinary citizens, while stabilizing the country's economy along the way.

At the same time, this kind of chart should not be taken as the last truth, since the government of the Russian Federation tends to play it safe when making macro forecasts.

Analytical agencies that compiled this schedule for the current and subsequent years, indicated that by the end of December 2018 the dollar exchange rate would reach 59.60 rubles. And by the end of the same year, it will reach the level of 54.50 rubles per dollar, while already in 2019, according to the proposed schedule, the rate will steadily grow and will be able to reach the mark of sixty-two rubles.

Is it worth investing in dollars?

It is worth clarifying that the entire conversation in this article was started, because the citizens of the country want to know whether it is worth investing their savings in the US dollar. It is worth noting that this currency is one of the most stable in the world, so it seems that it needs to be purchased, but no one intends to make long-term forecasts. Representatives of banking institutions claim that interest rates on ruble deposits are very high, however, dollar deposits are still no less popular.

So, how much the dollar will cost in 2018, you won’t be able to understand in advance, so you need to buy it only if:

• the amount of savings is small;
• savings in this currency can be replenished;
• placement takes place for a short period;
• risks are clearly understood, and a hand is kept on the pulse of the financial foreign exchange market.

You should not hold the US dollar for a long time, as the exchange rate may fall due to the huge external debt of the state and the actions of oil exporters.

There is no need to panic by buying dollars frantically while their value is high. You should not hide your savings in three-liter jars or under a mattress, because this way you will not earn anything on the foreign exchange rate. You need to try to play on financial exchanges, which will allow you to earn more dollars and not buy only one currency for reinsurance.

Any changes in the dollar exchange rate can be predicted by experts who follow the movement of the stock market, who know the reasons for the growth or fall of the dollar. They calculate the options, figure out the time frame and make their predictions. So, what will happen to the dollar in 2017: we will find out the opinion of experts 1 hour ago in the article.

The stock market can influence not only the multi-million dollar transactions of various large corporations and the fortunes of millionaires, who, of course, closely monitor the movement of the currency. What will happen to the dollar in 2017, the opinion of experts is of interest to millions and ordinary people whose lives are somehow connected with the currency. After all, the dollar is considered a world currency, it is used in dozens of countries, not only in the USA or Canada, although Europe prefers the euro, and the yuan is considered a more reliable currency.

The dynamics of changes in the upcoming dollar exchange rate, the first quarters of 2017

The dollar has a long, eventful history. Initially, it was used only in the USA, and the amount of currency was determined by gold, oil, because the money itself was invented as paper representatives of the gold fund available in the country. Alas, once the number of dollars rose so much that gold could no longer cover everything, then the currency depreciated sharply. The United States has to closely monitor the amount of money, their movement. Why is the dollar exchange rate changing, and? What other factors influence it?

The most famous is the cost of oil, the country's black gold. When the price of a barrel falls, so does the dollar. Each country correlates it with its own currency. In Russia they look at the attitude towards the ruble, in Kazakhstan - towards the tenge and so on. As the price of Russian oil fell, the ruble also faltered.

Now the country's economists are tracking the cost of national oil in the world market. For example, Alfa-Bank specialists believed that the ruble would fall to about 80 rubles, analysts from FINAM put 83-85 rubles higher, other analysts from APEKON, also Segodnya.ru, believed 100-105 rubles.

The Ministry of Finance had a different opinion. The deputy head of the Ministry of Finance, Mr. Maxim Oreshkin, reassures, stating that there are no objective reasons to panic and there is no need to make such pessimistic forecasts. If one barrel costs $50, then the dollar exchange rate will be 63.3 rubles. Other experts calmly agreed with him, believing that the position of the ruble, on the contrary, should be strengthened.

Time has passed, and now, looking at the stock market, we can say that the truth was, as usual, somewhere in the center. For example, on January 22, the dollar began to cost 83.59 rubles, as if giving a reaction to the lifting of sanctions imposed on the country of Iran.

At the same time, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, whose opinion is certainly worth relying on, stated that interventions are not planned, because the fall of the ruble does not threaten the overall financial stability in the country at all, although when the ruble fell somewhat by the past 2015, ordinary people noted an increase in prices, some of which concerned the necessary daily products, like meat or buckwheat. I had to stock up and save more. On the other hand, correctional measures have begun on the stock and oil-extracting markets.

Oil suppliers have begun important negotiations on the necessary reduction in the annual production of "black gold" in order for oil prices to stabilize. This gave the ruble a chance to regain lost positions. The negotiations, however, have not yet brought significant success, but the cost of oil has increased anyway, and by April 2016, the dollar is already worth 65 rubles, which was pleasing. By May, this trend only continued. At the same time, the Fed said that the key rate will remain and that you can expect 2 increases in the rate, not 4. This is how the ruble strengthened better by the 2nd quarter.

Alas, any changes in the ruble immediately affect the cost of products and the general market, because Russia buys many things from abroad, and also exports itself. Therefore, the value of the dollar affects the lives of ordinary citizens. Moreover, many keep savings in another currency, though they trust the euro or the yuan more. For many years now, some financial analysts have been making predictions about the complete and imminent disappearance, they say it will be replaced by the yuan or the euro, whose rates do not change much and delight the inhabitants with stability.

Also, major world events are always reflected in the currency, whether it be sanctions or oil production. Financial crises and defaults, even when they occur far away, in America or Europe, affect all countries connected by trade relations. Therefore, the dollar with the euro can be considered a world currency.

Forecasts for 3-4 quarters

Now, watching the dollar exchange rate, we can say that it has really fallen a little. After drastic changes, people are already watching with apprehension, each time expecting to see a sensation. Everyone wants stability and sleep peacefully without fear of the future. Therefore, all forecasts are so important, they try to make a picture based on them. What is expected by the 3rd-4th quarters of 2017? While it is impossible to say for sure, there are many ambiguities, because the state of the exchange rate continues to be influenced by many factors that change in turn.

For example, the head of the Ministry of Economic Development, Mr. A. Ulyukaev, said that the future cost of oil will slowly overcome the bar of $60, so the dollar will become somewhere around 51 rubles. Other government officials are hoping to stem the capital outflow that occurred in 2015.

If you listen to the head of Sberbank, Mr. G. Gref, his opinion is not so optimistic. He is looking at the Fed's monetary policy overall, which is a strong factor influencing the cost of barrels of domestic oil. For example, if suddenly the Fed's policy becomes tougher (although this has not been noticed yet, but who knows), the dollar will undoubtedly strengthen.

Economists from Alfa-Bank think that the dollar will cost 70 rubles, but if the Fed somehow increases the existing key rate, the dollar will rise in price, it will be 75 rubles.

Alexey Zabotkin, as the head of the investment strategy at VTB Capital, spoke in favor of a similar diagnosis - they say the main thing is that oil does not rise above the declared $50, then 2017 is spent with a dollar for 70 rubles.

However, if we sum up the interim results after studying several opinions and viewing the news, we can say that it is too early to panic. Many experts give bright, encouraging forecasts. The ruble is undoubtedly slowly strengthening, the world certainly needs oil.

For example, Bogdan Zvarich, as an analyst from THEIR FINAM, is sure that the ruble will be somewhere around 60 rubles per dollar by the end of the current 2017.

Foreign experts put a mark on the range of 48-58 rubles.

True, one or several analysts should not be indiscriminately believed, even when their forecasts are similar to each other, because practice always shows how such opinions come true somewhere in 50-70%. The truth finds its middle, because any analyst, even a computer program run by brokers or mathematical formulas by which others calculate, cannot take into account unpredictable events.

What will await the planet: natural disasters, economic crises, new sanctions or the abolition of existing ones, which have been discussed for a long time. All this is reflected in the stock market of the world. After all, the web of money firmly binds countries together.

Factors that seriously affect exchange rates

It doesn't matter if it's a dollar or a euro, they are all participants in the global stock market, each currency has its own weight and value. There are a number of factors that significantly affect the state of the market:

Natural disasters - tsunamis or large earthquakes, tornadoes or floods. Any cataclysm brings not only suffering and human casualties, but is also measured by financial losses. What will be affected, which country will be affected and how much money will be needed to rebuild. This hits the state budget, and if the cataclysm affects several countries, the changes in the stock market are more significant and long-term, the experience of past years clearly shows this;

Another serious factor is the attitude towards Russia on the world stage. More recently, the United States adopted a number of serious sanctions against it, then there was talk of abolition. It is not known where the next diplomatic negotiations will lead, because the world is big, something happens in it every day.

Seasonal phenomena - of course they repeat every year, summer replaces autumn, then winter comes and this is normal. However, every year is different and it changes the state of the market. It is difficult even for forecasters, not to mention financiers, to predict how the next season will turn out.

Corruption, the level of crime - such phenomena, of course, are attributed to domestic problems, but it still affects.

Production - some countries act as buyers, others sell something and, of course, the level of consumption depends on the amount of supply. Especially when they talk about oil or gold, precious stones.

Inflation is, alas, a real scourge. Sometimes it seems that everything has settled down and there is calmness, but one day and that's it, inflation begins. It is especially difficult for ordinary people to understand the causes and long-term nature of this phenomenon, especially when inflation is provoked on purpose. Only experienced analysts can predict this, and even then rarely. Inflation immediately generates a rapid rise in cost, especially for essential products, which creates shortages.

The economic situation - it can somehow be regulated and changes can be predicted here.
Here, there are many factors affecting the stock market, changes in the dollar exchange rate, it is impossible to take into account everything and calculate the exact formula by which a 100% forecast of all market changes will be reflected, although many are trying to find the secret of the financial fortress mechanism. Such a person would instantly turn into a billionaire. However, many experienced analysts constantly monitor the movement of the financial market, tracking the slightest changes every day. They try to develop the most detailed forecast, where as many factors as possible will be taken into account.

What will happen to the dollar in 2017-2020?

It would seem that when the state of 2017 is unknown, why look further? But people want to make plans, see where they go next. Here, the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade first looks at the production and cost of oil as the main factor.

For example, its average annual cost is now $40 (barrel), it is not difficult to estimate the prospects. In 2017, the dollar will rise to 75 rubles, then by 2018 it will already be 80 rubles, and the crisis will continue for a couple more years until 2019. Alexei Kudrin, the former finance minister, said that Russia could face five not-too-pleasant "skinny years" if sanctions persist. Russian economists do not give accurate forecasts, but they agree on at least one thing - alas, oil will no longer cost as high as before.

Analysts from the PrognoxEx agency believe that with the beginning of 2017, the ruble will decrease slightly, to about 72-76 rubles, then closer to the middle of this year, the national currency will get stronger. Their forecasts for the end of 2017 are 60-62 rubles.

In general, there are many analysts, as well as financial experts, each with their own opinion and they name different numbers for the future dollar exchange rate. This is if you look at short-term forecasts for the near future. What to say about future years? Many people try to make quick money on unexpected rate fluctuations, changes in the foreign exchange market.

Brokers promise fantastic profits if you follow the programs they have developed, but financial analysts do not advise climbing the stock market, investing money somewhere without relevant, even minimal knowledge, although many people want to earn big profits in an hour. It is better to slowly monitor the dollar rates, follow the news. One thing is clear so far: calm promises in the near future, most experts do not promise sharp jumps for the dollar.