From what is currently proposed. “The official Tatarstan has won the image so far, but the Tatars have lost

Yesterday, the MICEX index closed the day with a black candle. Support at 2270 did not resist and the market went to its first target - 2250, from where it was able to roll back and closed, testing the broken support at 2270 from below. 2290, 2310 and 2340. According to the ripple, the situation is developing in favor of a decline: we have completed BAT, corrected to it and today performed the first in the third wave, at the end of the day went into a correction in the form of wave 2 and today we can get 3 in 3, if the market will not be able to break the wave by breaking down the 2306 mark.

The situation looks neutral in the morning:

CPI bounced off its resistance at 2845 and fulfilled its first target at 2805, from where it rebounded upwards and is now approaching its first resistance at 2835, the rebound from which can be sold with targets at 2806, 2789 and 2743. In case of its breakdown, we expect the growth to continue with targets at 2847, 2858 and 28877.

The euro-dollar reached its support at 1.131 (here I lost the channel and the real level was 1.1295, I wrote in my blog yesterday) and bounced back up. Here, the decline is most likely completed and a new wave of growth or a large correction awaits us with the nearest targets 1.163 and 1.169. Cancellation of the scenario - breakdown of 1.1295 with a retest from below, which will open the way for the pair to the next target - 1.08.

Gold (here, too, the channel flew off, sorry) also finished off to its goal and turned around. Here, too, we expect continued growth with the nearest target at 1250. Cancellation of the scenario - breakdown of support at 1166, in this case we can go to the next support - 1140 and turn around from there.

Oil did not jump and immediately moved down, having achieved two targets out of three and bounced off the second -70.2 - the signal line on the daily chart. Here we are waiting for a correction with the targets of 72.3, 72.7 and 74, after which (or in case of a breakdown of 70) the decline should resume and even accelerate. The local target in this case will be the mark 69, and the main one - 63.6.

The dollar-ruble bounced off its support at 66.2 and went into growth, breaking through the resistance at 66.9 (in the morning - 67). Today we are waiting for a test of the level from above and buy a pullback with targets at 68.7 and 70.5. Leaving below with a retest will tell us that the correction has not been completed yet and another downward wave with the targets of 66.7, 66.3 and 65.6 awaits us. Or that 67 is not a level.

By industry:

The banking sector reached its support at 6260 (6255 in the morning) and closed with a slight rebound, which still hopes for a resumption of growth, but in the event of a breakdown of the level (preferably with a retest). it is worth waiting for the continuation and acceleration of the decline with the nearest targets 5960 and 5790. If the level is held, we are again waiting for the entry into the cluster resistance zone 6490-6510.

The oil sector broke through its support at 6645 (in the morning - 6655), but tried to return to it by the close. Today we are waiting for the test of the level from below and sell the rebound - most likely the time has come for a correction for the sector. We are waiting for the resumption of the decline with the targets of 6440 and 6195. Cancellation of the scenario - return above 6655 with a retest from above - in this case, we can go up again with targets at 6786 and 6860.

Metallurgists broke through the local support of 5770 and closed, testing the level from below. Today we are waiting for it to be worked out: we sell the pullback with the targets of 5690 and 5640, we buy the breakout with the target of 5935.

The energy sector reached its support zone 1680-1687 from where it retraced slightly. Apparently, the trend ends with the CDT, which lacks another downward wave, so you should be careful with purchases and pick up in case of a breakdown of the 1733 cluster resistance - in this case, the decline can be considered complete and wait for the growth to continue with the targets of 1780 and 1795.

Telecoms all day fought against their support at 1710 and kept it, so growth with the target of 1766 is likely here. Cancellation of the scenario - breakdown of support, in this case we go further down with the target of 1655.

Bottom line: almost all sectors (as well as some Western currencies and indices) are on their supports, the breakdown of which will lead to an acceleration of the decline. An exception is the oil industry, which may continue to fall, dragging the MICEX index with it, while the rest will recover. The situation is on the verge of a breakdown in the peak, however, if we can hold the support today, the market will have a chance to continue its growth.

Such a strong belief in the growth dynamics of the global economy as it enters the second half of 2017, this point has been reached in the economic cycle when data that is not in line with expectations is dismissed as an aberration.

For example, US purchasing managers' indices were weaker than anyone surveyed by Reuters predicted, but the market paid little attention to this. “The path is below expectations, but let's not worry,” said the mantra.

This economic panglossianism - for the best of the best of all worlds - is based on what appears to be the view of the majority among politicians and economists that the world is experiencing significant growth.

“The faster growth this year reflects a synchronized improvement in both advanced market economy and in emerging markets, ”said Brian Coulton, head economist Fitch Ratings predicting 2017 will see the fastest growth in the world - 2.9 percent - since 2010.

Back up this look, central banks the US, Eurozone and UK are leaning towards tightening, albeit with a cacophony of mixed signals about when.

Financial Markets Currently Assess 90% Chance Of Eurozone Rate Hike By July next year, for example, to go along with the continuing uptrends of the Federal Reserve.

However, there are some awkward trends that will need to be addressed in the second half of the year.

First, there were some signs of a decline in economic activity, while inflation in most cases remains stubbornly unconcerned about the huge monetary stimulus thrown at it.

The Citi Economic Surprise Index, which moves in tandem with poor data or undervalued expectations, has dropped across major industrial countries this year and is at negative levels not seen since 2011.

The US gross domestic product is currently growing, but the pace in each of the last two quarters has been slowing down to 1.4 percent in January-March.

The Atlanta Fed report says growth will rebound in the second quarter, but more strong sales domestically, as a reflection of cheap money offsetting sluggish investment in equipment and supplies.

Durable goods orders have dropped sharply and job growth has slowed, according to the latest data.

In the Eurozone, the overall picture is relatively positive with current growth rates of 1.9 percent year on year - but there are challenges, for example, in Italy, the bloc's third largest economy. While deflation may end, inflation is still below target.

The unemployment rate is lower but still above 9 percent (double for youth), consumer spending is falling, and growth wages stubbornly slow.

Meanwhile, China has escaped the slowdown that some feared. Indeed, June production grew the fastest in just three months.

But the official pursuit of over-indebtedness and shady banking services was a sufficient risk to economic stability to force central bank be careful in taking further action, especially in the run-up to this year's CCP convention.

In Japan, the government has improved its overall assessment position in the economy due to the growth of private consumption. But recent data show that retail sales are growing more slowly than expected, with sales of durable goods and apparel slowing down.

Britain, facing a huge unknown exit from the European Union, is setting an example for itself with falling consumer confidence.

Examination

None of this means that world economy not in good shape, and with (non-UK) consumer and business confidence tends to grow.

There are "mixed signals," David Falkerts-Landau, chief economist at the Deutsche Bank Group, writes to Deutsche Bank clients, but they reflect "a softening of momentum in the margins, but still robust."

But there is enough uncertainty for the Bank for International Settlements - the banker of central banks - to warn of the risks ahead of a turning financial cycle, runaway household debt and low productivity growth among others.

They are difficult to track down, but there will be a number of background checks next week.

Final purchasing managers' indices and their equivalents, such as Japan's Tankan, will show whether growth in manufacturing and services is supporting expectations or giving in to a mild slowdown.

Germany, France and the UK are also to publish their latest industrial output data.

Finally, US nonfarm employment data for June is due at the end of the week. The number of new jobs is expected to rise from May, but will continue to reflect a much lower rate of job creation than at the beginning of the year.

In addition to this data, there will be conversations. A group of 20 countries meet in Berlin at the end of the week - seeking their unity with US President Donald Trump to keep things going in the second half of the year and beyond.

For a long time I have not written anything about the current situation, although this is definitely necessary for both myself and the investors. Below is information on all aspects of my activities within this blog.

Old Hibrumix accounts and Lazarus accounts

Main headache. Accounts that went into a drawdown from hibrumix in the first half of the year fell into a deep drawdown of non-toxic Lazarus, which was formed starting from the second half of the year. This situation was quite likely, but I hoped it would. But it didn't. Non-toxic systems can go into drawdown for a rather long period, which I wrote in detail about in the article about. The trouble-free Murphy's Law worked: "Anything that can go wrong will go wrong."

As a result, the drawdown has only grown since May, which puts a lot of pressure on everyone psychologically. I am sure that Anton will soon publish an article on the situation with the Lazar trading system.

Hibrumix MAM account on Valutreides

The Hibrumix MAM account on Valutreides did not sag as much as the others, since from the beginning of August it was transferred to x0.5 risks due to the leverage cut by the regulator. It is difficult to call this an achievement, but the situation on these accounts is a little better, although the potential time for their exit from the final drawdown is even longer.

HRM3050 accounts with Alpari and IceFX

My trading system is HRM3050, which is a direct continuation of the system, but with significantly reduced risks (and hence target profitability) and with rigid stops screwed onto each used trading system. Since August, about 5% has been earned, which is slightly less than the target profitability, but on the whole it is quite within the normal range under not the most favorable conditions. I position the system quite conservative, the main objective which to provide a relatively high comfort of investment, so that the account either predominantly updates the hai and investors have the opportunity to withdraw profit regularly, or in case of relatively unfavorable conditions, the account would simply “make no headway”, but would not go into any significant drawdown.

V further development HRM3050 accounts in trade plan, as well as their promotion among investors, I see as my main activity.

MAM account HRM3050 on Valutrades

Due to the fact that there was an investor who wanted to invest in HRM3050 on the Valutrades site, now the MAM account HRM3050 has also been launched on the Valutrades site. Let me remind you that this is a British platform and for retail clients the leverage is limited to 1:30. Taking into account the extremely low risks of the HRM3050 system and the low value of the used leverage, trading, under such tough conditions on the part of the regulator, is quite real. At the same time, all the "goodies" of trading in the British jurisdiction are preserved: insurance from the regulator in the amount of 50,000 pounds and commission-free deposit / withdrawal both using cards and using a foreign bank transfer.

The only tangible problem when investing through an MAM account is the relatively large minimum amount investments in order for transactions to be copied with the minimum lot. It is desirable to have $ 20,000, at least $ 10,000.

Fully non-toxic Impuls system on IceFX

Impuls portfolio of non-toxic automated trading systems launched at IceFX. This portfolio now includes three trading systems:

• my own impulse trading system for EURUSD;
• breakout system using belkaglazer.com robot with my original settings in line with my philosophy of non-toxic trading. The system trades on EURUSD, USDJPY, XAUUSD pairs with the same settings;
• impulse system using belkaglazer.com robot with my original settings. The system trades on the EURUSD pair;
• another non-public robot that trades impulses on eurusd, but very specific with a significant difference from the two previous impulse systems.

It would be necessary to find the time and bring the tests of these robots into one, for the publication of a separate article. It is worth noting a couple of features that I put in the philosophy of this particular portfolio:

• Each entry of any of the robots is duplicated by a series of deals with different settings for exiting the market and rules for fixing profits. Mostly, of course, this is a different set of take profits and stop losses, but there are also settings for time windows of positions.
• the take profit level is significantly higher than the stop loss level, at least 2 times. On average, the difference is about 2.5.
• The market entry is realized only in case of significant movements, which can mainly be caused by fundamental factors. These are either very powerful impulses or breakouts of really significant and confirmed levels.

I plan to develop this own portfolio of non-toxic systems both separately and as a small part of the HRM3050 portfolio.

There are plans to open an investment acceptance for this account at IceFX and open a PAMM-account with this system in Alpari.

Creation of a bot for arbitrage on crypto-exchanges

In the same place, in Excel, I wrote a simple bot that deals with arbitrage on the DSX exchange and on the Binance exchange for the ETHBTC pair. It turned out that even with such a narrow choice (one pair and two exchanges), arbitrage is quite real, although of course there is no need to talk about any excess profits. Now I am finishing up a universal algorithm implemented in a console application written in visula studio for arbitration using a large number of exchanges, while the truth is on minimum volumes in order to collect statistics on the frequency of occurrence of arbitrage windows, their direction and volume on the crosses of the main coins: cue ball, ether, ripple, lightcoin.

All calculations show that when high turnovers are reached and, as a result, the commissions are reduced by exchanges, arbitrage is quite real. True, it is not yet clear how much it is necessary to use funds in fiat equivalent in order to generate sufficient turnover to significantly reduce the commission by exchanges.

Definitely an interesting experience.

Blogging

I have to admit that I am depressed due to this year's series of failures, namely:

• the January drawdown of the Hibrumis accounts (the drawdown of which should not have been at all);
• fixing a loss in May and stopping trading on hybrumix accounts (the main position, for which critical damage was received, did not reach 5 points to take profit);
• bad moment to start trading system Lazarus (just a bad moment to start).

In the end, I let both my investors and myself down. Besides, I cannot offer any “quick” solution, simply because there are no “correct quick solutions”.

All this, to a certain extent, crushes and interferes with writing on the blog. I'm not talking about writing the funny and sarcastic posts that distinguished the blog during its heyday.

On the other hand, a huge amount of work has been done, there is a huge number of directly tested trading developments, as well as a separate infrastructure to control the synchronous operation of all accounts and robots. Therefore, it is not correct to say that I start everything from zero. No, not from scratch. But to some extent from the beginning.

At the round table "BUSINESS Online" they discussed the situation after the adoption in the first reading of the scandalous language bill of the Duma

“Tatarstan was left alone. What's next?" - this is how the name of the round table, which took place in the editorial office of "BUSINESS Online", was formulated. Representatives of the national intelligentsia analyzed the current "language crisis", which, apparently, is approaching its resolution. With what losses does the republic approach this? And what to do in this situation? This is a detailed report from the event.

Representatives of the national intelligentsia analyzed the current "language crisis", which, apparently, is approaching its resolution

"THE CHOICE IS ABSOLUTELY NOT FREE, THE CHOICE IS ABSOLUTELY IMMEDIATED"

The epic with the discussion and adoption of the draft law on language reform, apparently, is coming to its logical conclusion. But the compromise, which was reached at the level of legislators, does not suit the broad national community. And the only one of the subjects of the Federation, whose parliament gave negative review the original version of the document was Tatarstan. Now we are entering a new educational reality, where the national education system will in fact have fewer opportunities, and the question of the future of nation-building remains open and conceptually unresolved.

How can Tatarstan be in these conditions, when it will have to revise the entire educational structure, which conceals a number of complex sociopolitical challenges, including the formation of a new civic Tatarstan identity, building new post-federal relations with Moscow, etc.? Is it possible under the current circumstances to create a new Tatar national environment, an elite that will be able to respond to the new challenges of our time? Experts and representatives of the Tatar intellectual community were looking for answers to these questions at the round table “Law on the study of native languages: Tatarstan was left alone. What's next? ", Which was held in the editorial office of" BUSINESS Online "the next day after the adoption of the scandalous bill in the first reading in the State Duma.

“What happened on June 19 in the State Duma was expected. Because the balance of power is such that the federal core of power is now all-embracing and can suppress anyone, not just its indigenous peoples. But now I expect such a move by regional politicians who will applaud and say: “Everything is fine, guys! We have achieved our goal - the native language will be present in the compulsory part of the educational program. " They will say they consider it a great success. First of all, these words will be uttered by Tatarstan politicians, because they have gotten into this matter more deeply than other politicians, since the Tatar public demanded that they take a certain position, "a well-known historian assessed the results of the State Duma meeting.

But did you manage to prevent the translation of native languages ​​into the optional part? And even with apologetic statements that this was not originally intended at all? The expert on national education, head of the association of workers of the Tatar national education and culture of the Republic of Tatarstan "Magarif" believes that "this is pure fiction." “Now, new versions of the Federal State Educational Standard have been adopted, which already provide for the teaching of native languages ​​as a mandatory part. Without any law, the native language was already included in the mandatory part, but Russian was also included in it. That is, at the expense of native languages ​​it will be possible to additionally study Russian, ”he fears. According to Lotfullin, this is fraught with the fact that now all parents, regardless of nationality, will choose Russian as their native language, because the languages ​​of the peoples of the Russian Federation will not be in equal conditions. “The choice is absolutely not free, the choice is absolutely imposed, because the results of the exam in the Russian language are taken into account when applying for any direction! What kind of person will break the fate of his child, deprive him of competitiveness, advantages? Nobody will deprive! And here everyone is trying to get a higher education, ”he reminds.

So, if all students choose Russian as their native language, then there will be no Tatar in the class? “Even if 7 students choose Tatar, it will no longer exist, since at least 8 people are needed to form a separate group,” said the deputy chairman of the world forum of Tatar youth. “The deputies are glad that it was already in the law! Native languages ​​were in the Federal State Educational Standard. And they serve it up as a victory. Of course, the official image of Tatarstan may have won at the moment, but the Tatars have lost. And in general, Tatarstan lost strategically. But in the information field, this will be presented as a victory. But this cannot even be called a compromise, the deputies simply recorded this retreat, which took place last autumn, ”he added.

Fayzrakhamnov, a member of the initiative group "For the preservation of the native languages ​​of the Russian Federation", recalled when the Deputy Chairman of the State Council of the Republic of Tatarstan Rimma Ratnikova said that we were forced to retreat, fixing the boundaries of the retreat. “Then they talked about 2 hours of compulsory Tatar as the state language. The deputies could not even reach this level! In autumn, this was assessed as a forced retreat, but now we, not even reaching this level, call it a victory. This is Jesuism, "Fayzrakhmanov emphasized. Moreover, in his opinion, during the voting in the State Duma, dissatisfaction with the bill was felt among the deputies of other national republics.

Marat Iblaminov (left): "The result of all these twists and turns around the national languages ​​is nothing more than a very loud silence of our people's representatives"

“THE PANES BETWEEN THEMSELVES ARE ALWAYS AGREEMENT. IT IS OBVIOUS"

But did the deputies from Tatarstan have the opportunity to vote against? There is nothing unexpected about what has happened and is happening, the ex-deputy of the State Duma is sure Fundas Safiullin... “But I experienced a terrible blow, to the point that I wanted to refuse to participate in the round table out of a feeling of shame and shame. Tatarstan suffered a very large, deplorable political defeat. Our deputies of the State Duma withdrew from the subordination of their State Council, the decisions of their president ... "- explained the reason for his disappointment Safiullin. Although the Duma members cannot obey the republican parliament. “They are our representatives. They are party representatives as long as they are candidates. As soon as the elections are over, they become representatives of the people of Tatarstan, ”retorted Safiullin. “They did not listen, they left the regime of the political line, did not support the general line of the republic. This is a political crisis: they went against the opinion of the highest representative body of power, which for us is the parliament, which expresses not the interests of the deputies, but the entire society that elected it to parliament. And the nationwide president also expresses the opinion of the people. They went against it, that's a shame. None of them voted against, virtually all supported. Three deputies voted against, all three from the national republics - Chuvashia, Bashkortostan and Dagestan, ”Safiullin recalled. “There are still men in the Caucasus,” Iskhakov noted sadly.

For the sake of fairness, we note, however, that the thesis about the violation by the deputies of the "general line of the republic" is still controversial. Official representative of the Kazan Kremlin Lilia Galimova actually supported the vote of the Tatarstan deputies, stressing that they did not vote for the bill, but for the resolution, which is not only about the adoption of the document in the first reading, but also about making extensive amendments to it for the second. The State Council of the Republic of Tatarstan expressed its position on the original version of the bill. The adopted resolution was not discussed at all in the regions, since it was submitted to the plenary session in maximum haste.

“If these 15 deputies had demanded to speak, everyone would have signed up for the debate, they would not have been given, but demonstratively they should have all signed up, even repeating the same thing, word for word. And then, when they are refused, it would be enough for everyone to get up, stand up and show: it means that we are not needed here, you are ignoring us. It is enough for such a political regular demonstration of 10 people - the Duma will pay attention. And if our deputies could mobilize 5-6 deputies from other republics, they would have acted differently, ”ex-deputy Safiullin laid out a possible scenario of actions.

“I believe that they have agreed on everything with Moscow, they say, guys, let’s save face, we will make concessions to you, and you calm down. Tatarstan had to officially save face: we are adopting the law, you are accepting the fact of subordination: they kicked, but agreed. Pans always agree among themselves. This is obvious, ”the political scientist expressed his point of view.

“The evolution of Russian society, good or bad, is another question,” says the media manager, creator of radio Tartibes. Marat Iblaminov... - The result of all these twists and turns around the national languages ​​is nothing more than a very loud silence of our people's representatives. They were so loudly silent all these years until Boris Nikolayevich presented the sovereignty. Have we exercised this right? Developing your language? We complained that in Soviet times somehow they squeezed it, although it turns out that more was done for the Tatar language in the USSR than now. "

According to Marat Lotfullin, for four years now, subject teachers in the Tatar language have not been trained in Tatarstan, and in the regions of Russia these processes have been going on for 30 years.

"I BELIEVE THAT THIS LAW ELIMINATES THE NATIONAL EDUCATION"

At the same time, specialist in national education Lotfullin drew attention to the pitfalls contained in the new law. In particular, the clause "within the capabilities of the education system." “You declare that you want to study a language or study in your native language, but they will answer you:“ Our education system does not have such an opportunity - there are no textbooks, there are no teachers. ” And this applies not only to the regions, but also to Tatarstan itself. In 15 years you will come to a Tatar school and say: “I want to study in the Tatar language”. And you will be told that there are no teachers, ”he explained. According to Lotfullin, for four years now, subject teachers in the Tatar language have not been trained in Tatarstan, and in the regions of Russia these processes have been going on for 30 years.

At the same time, Lotfullin drew attention to the fact that Tatarstan is fixated exclusively on itself. “Now we are fighting for the state Tatar language, for our native language, but at the same time we completely forget about 3/4 of the Tatars who live outside the territory of Tatarstan. They remained at the level of the 1980s - only 7 percent of Tatars learn their native language at school, ”he said. “In 1990-1991, there were about 90 Tatar schools in the Tyumen region, now there are 5,” Iskhakov said. “Because cadres are not trained. After the 1990s, Russia stopped training cadres who speak their native languages. Even all kindergartens work in Russian in all places where Tatars live compactly. Now this trouble has come to Tatarstan as well. For four years, teachers with their native language have not been trained in Tatarstan - in 15 years Tatar schools will not be able to work, there simply will not be an opportunity. Moreover, according to the instructions of the prosecutor's office, from September 1, it will not be possible to use textbooks in the Tatar language in Tatar gymnasiums. This applies to all of Russia. Textbooks in native languages ​​on subjects must undergo re-examination, and this is at least three years and multimillion-dollar funds, "Lotfullin outlined the dull prospects.

“All these recent years, not only yesterday, we have lost the information war. This is the worst thing. The Russian-language edition "BUSINESS Online", "Star of the Volga Region", and "Tatmedia" has been blocking information about the problem since 2007 in defense of the Tatar language. All 100 newspapers, owned by Tatmedia, kept silent about the abolition of the regional-national component in 2007. In the villages, they still do not know that 10 years ago a law was adopted to abolish the national-regional component, ”Safiullin drew attention to another problem.

Ruslan Aisin: “An hour or two will not be enough for a rich Tatar culture with its dastans, which were written even when there was no Russian literature, there was an Old Slavonic language”

« I was surprised by this moment - among the initiators of the bill was the Chechen deputy Shamsail Saraliev, who, when the wave began, withdrew his name. And we know that the Chechens simply don’t do anything there. Another Chechen deputy came up with a good initiative that needs to be supported: since there are no national languages ​​at the legislative level, especially in the education system, he proposed from the rostrum from the State Duma that those who choose their native language get 10 points for the Unified State Exam. This is motivation! And the educational system is always motivation, - said political scientist Aisin. - I think that the consequences will not be very good, because it is clear that the law is being adopted so that the remnants of the national education system that exist are finally sprinkled with salt, so that nothing grows there. I believe that this law will eliminate national education... Those who will choose their native language will be few, and even these hours or two will not be enough for the rich Tatar culture with its dastans, which were written when there was no Russian literature, there was an Old Slavonic language. It is impossible to study all this for two hours a week. "

The subject of the Unified State Exam has surfaced again. “Even if the choice of the language is guaranteed, at the same time the examination in the language of instruction is prohibited, it will remain an empty declaration. If there is a choice of the language of instruction, then there must be a choice of the language of the exam. This does not exist, which means that nothing will change. To solve the problem, there had to be a choice not of the language at school, but the choice of the school itself: if you don't want to learn Tatar, go to a Russian school, if you want to teach, to a Tatar one, Safiullin is sure. - The Unified State Exam in the Russian language is one of the horror stories that frighten parents, it is a very serious threat to our national existence. It was established by the norm for pupils of the national school to pass the exam in the Russian language at the level of schools with the Russian language of instruction. This is a direct political coercion of non-Russian peoples to abandon their native languages, therefore, from their national identity. " He noticed that every time a language topic comes up on the pages of "BUSINESS Online" commentators write: learn Tatar, who's stopping you? “Yes, there is no prohibition, we must agree: Russia does not prohibit anything. It is enough that it does not permit, ”the ex-State Duma deputy is sure.

Although the current version of the scandalous law will change, it still does not satisfy the interests of the Tatar people, as well as of other peoples of Russia, Fayzrakhmanov believes: With new edition the bill. Moreover, they speak out more harshly than the Tatar public. Many people think that the Tatars are in the vanguard. No, it's just that the words of others are not being heard at the federal level. But there the learned community, the real intelligentsia, speak out more harshly. In Ossetia, for example, the Ossetians are the people who have always been the support of Russia and Moscow in the Caucasus. They have a very negative attitude to this bill, they are offended by this position of Moscow and federal center... So the Tatars are far from alone here ”.

Rimzil Valeev: “We have received a recognition that the majority of Russian speakers do not want to know any language, except one. And that is not always firm "

“ASK A 16 YEAR OLD TATAR GUY TO DANCE A TATAR DANCE? IN THE BEST CASE THERE WILL BE A DRUNKED BEAR WALKING "

« Summing up the exacerbation « language problem ”, it must be admitted that it was not so much the Tatars themselves who lost. Tatarstan got a hole, the Russian Federation and all Russian society and it hasn't been patched yet. We have received a recognition that the majority of Russian speakers do not want to know any language except one. And that's not always hard. But we live in the era of polylingualism, cultural integration, ”states the journalist and public figure. He is sure that there was a deception in this story, the president of Russia was framed: “They provoked a split among parents, teachers, students, in mixed families, among Russian-speaking different levels ethnic identity, knowledge of the native language and culture. And the process goes on, and it will not stop soon. The Tatars, super loyal to the authorities and the president, who perfectly know at least two or more languages, worry, become more active, and rally. They did not pose any threat to the country and the state. Everything could be solved at the level of objective experts, without threats and discrimination. They preferred political technology, but it is never objective. The society has already begun to look askance at each other. "

« There is none sociological research about how Russian parents express their opinion on this issue, how they relate to the study of the Tatar language. There is no data! - says Iskhakov. - And if there is a bunch of rabid chauvinists shouting, this does not mean that this is the opinion of the entire Russian-speaking mass in all the republics. We need to know the whole picture, since not all Russians in Russia are in contact with the national republics. The question has not been studied - time. Secondly, it must be said that there is a state language. Any nation that forms as a national community sooner or later creates literary language, and this language is simply obliged to be applied in the public sphere. If this language is not applied in the sphere of state existence, then there will be no state either. This community will disintegrate, the people will live like Gypsies or like some groups that exist in India, who live in some states, but nothing is known about them, because they do not exist as national communities. "

With the help of such laws, we are actually reduced to such a state, we have retreated 100 years ago - to the level of 1917 or 1921, when everything had just happened and there was no language policy, Iskhakov is sure: “How can Tatarstan be in such conditions? It is still far from over. In vain, some people think that the Tatars are no longer there, that we and other peoples have already been bowed down. We, as a factor, will not quickly disappear. "

Tatarstan must fight, Lotfullin agrees with him. But Tatarstan has not been able to do anything in the field of education for a long time, all competences in this area have long been taken away: “Programs do not approve, textbooks do not approve, even guidelines they cannot give to schools. The Ministry of Education simply collects information and carries out public policy RF. And the ex-Minister of Education of the Republic of Tatarstan Engel Fattakhov was simply executing the law. "

« It is an axiom that a language lives only in a language environment. Nothing else can be. These days we see how gorgeous we can play football, how we furnished the city, how we can pack our hockey team with planes, cars, money, coaches - whatever. But regarding the Tatar language ... We have created a lot of programs: "Tatarstan-2020", "Tatarstan-2030", we hold conferences on the blockchain, on cryptocurrencies, etc. And where is the language development program? You can save cucumbers in a jar. If we keep languages, he will die. We need a normal state language development program! The authorities pay insufficient attention to Tatar events, according to the leftover principle - there is, okay, companionship, something is happening somewhere. Our packed sports teams, and where are the best linguistic offices in Tatarstan? - points out Iblaminov. - We sit, hold on to the audio funds, television - all this rot, all this disappears in the state fund, no one uses it. There is no state program for the development of Internet broadcasting. Stop fighting for FM frequencies, stop fighting for TV frequencies. The methods of delivery of information have changed, it is necessary to switch to Internet broadcasting. Ask a 5–6-year-old Caucasian boy to dance a lezginka? And she will dance! Ask a 16-year-old Tatar guy to dance a Tatar dance? V best case there will be a drunken bear wobble. We don't know the basics of our culture. What is stopping us? "

Ayrat Fayzrakhmanov: “In the autumn it was assessed as a forced retreat, but now we, not even reaching this level, call it a victory. This is Jesuism "

"LET AT LEAST THE HIGHEST LEADERSHIP OF THE REPUBLIC, MINISTERS LEARN THE LITERARY TATAR LANGUAGE, WE WILL CONDUCT LANGUAGE INTENSIVES"

« Let us at least teach the top leadership of the republic, the ministers, the literary Tatar language, conduct language intensives, so they would not hesitate to speak Tatar. People for whom the Tatar language is native and who lived in countryside, cannot speak the literary Tatar language today. And among the leadership, I know there are people who would like to do this. Other officials will already be drawn to the top management. It will be such a rule of good manners in bureaucratic circles - to know the Tatar language, ”Faykhzrakhmanov said.

According to Iskhakov, the interethnic balance is now violated, the active part of the people, the national intelligentsia, is offended to a certain extent. And in order to restore this interethnic balance, compensation is needed in the form of the development of national schools. If the federal center now has the authority to educate, then we need to demand right now that this law include an item on the concept of creating national schools - schools with a native language of instruction: “It is important now to demand, since there is an opportunity to make changes, Unified State Exam and VLOOKUP in Tatar. We also need a development concept higher education in native languages. Today, advanced countries are developing universities in their native languages, not just everything in English. As part of the bill, it is necessary to require that teaching of native languages ​​be from the 1st to the 11th grade, and in the native language too, because now it is also limited to 9 grades, from which follows the USE in Russian. Not everything is lost, you can put your demands within the framework of this bill. At least something, but they will accept it if we are talking about tactics. "

“What will happen if the bill is adopted in its current state? I believe that a significant part of the Tatars will choose Tatar as their native language, but not the absolute majority. Language is becoming an important ethnic marker and important element self-awareness, not just a communicative function. The Tatar language will be chosen, including by those parents whose family no longer has the Tatar language. Language choice is becoming a small policy in the family. And the demarcation of national apartments, which is feared, will continue further as a result of the adoption of this bill, ”he sums up.

“We continue to discuss what does not exist,” said Aisin. - New conditions have already arrived. You need to do a full reboot. We have concepts, but they are all in the economic line, in the socio-political concept, none. There is no Tatarstan civil identity, it has disintegrated. An attempt to create from two ethnic origins - Tatar and Russian - is also very unsuccessful, because the national identity of both Tatars and Russians is different, focused on different value systems. Collecting all these puzzles is problematic, especially in a short time. It's hard to come up with something in a short historical period. But I think that we need to take several elements of the Singaporean education system, the Catalan system of socio-political opportunities and tourist attraction and, of course, develop urbanism, grassroots democracy in villages, in the city, creating small communities, spaces of freedom. And there, in these areas of competition, give the opportunity to develop the Tatar language. What prevented Tatarstan from creating a Tatar space in each recreation center, where there would be a library and meetings with writers? While parents are expecting a child, they can go there and read Tatar books. None of this! "

We must admit the ineffectiveness and unsuccessfulness of the implementation of the language policy, which at the same time was not bad in Tatarstan, Paradoxically observed Valeev: “But the federal language line got confused and really could not explain, prove what it wanted. Okay, let's not force anyone to teach, but any subject requires diligence, work of the brain. Particularly in Tatarstan, part of the Russians are dissatisfied, and the Tatars themselves do not let their children learn the Tatar language and rarely use their native language, even knowing it. I would blame not only teachers for this. And educators, administrators, ethnocultural figures, the media and the system of power did not ensure the linguistic balance, did not form a positive attitude towards the study of languages, the preservation of ethnic identity. This means that all this needs to be corrected, getting rid of eyewash. The potential is there, the experience of cohabitation of peoples is not bad. "

“If nothing can be done in a public school, then there are a thousand and two ways to do it - there is the Internet, there are textbooks, you can put them there. Now is the time for the national intellect to get together, work out a solution and try to systematize them and mark the steps that need to be taken in the near future, ”Iskhakov noted another direction. - I have no great hope for a world congress, but nevertheless, we are planning an emergency congress in mid-July, there will be guys who live by national affairs, there will be many of them, and most of those who come already realize what is happening, they will really be understand. If these newcomers disperse without doing anything, then this will mean that the congress is dead. This means that it is necessary to create something different or third. " "Do you have the illusion that the congress is still alive?" - asked the moderator. “There is some hope,” Iskhakov replied. Will Milli Shura give any assessment to this law? What is his position? " - the moderator asked Iskhakov and Valeev, who, to some extent, represent the World Congress of Tatars at the round table, asked one more question. “There are not even people there who read this law,” Lotfullin joked to this. At the same time, Safiullin sadly stated that "the previous congress was completely empty and empty." "Give us youth a congress!" - At the same time, the representative of the younger generation, the deputy chairman of the VFTM Faizrakhmanov, said timidly, but his proposal remained in the air.

Damir Iskhakov: “Just don't think that everyone is at a loss. We absolutely monitored the situation, we are not at a loss. We don't have to blurt out everything on screens. We will make some important statements later. "

"PUTIN'S ORDER IN JULY BROUGHT THE LINE, A NEW ERA IS BEGINNING, AND THE TATARS NEED A NEW ELITE"

« A very good analysis and diagnosis both on the bill and on the political situation in Tatarstan and Russia were given, but it was not announced how to respond to these challenges for Tatarstan. So far, this is just a diagnosis. Let's think through what forms, mechanisms. My assessment is that the Tatar intelligentsia is at a loss. Putin's July assignment draws the line, begins new era, and the Tatars need a new elite ", - noted the moderator of the meeting, publisher of" BUSINESS Online " Rashid Galyamov.

“Just don't think that everyone is at a loss. We absolutely monitored the situation, we are not at a loss. We don't have to blurt out everything on screens. We will make some important statements later, ”Iskhakov replied.

« Now Tatars, especially those educated and brought up in national traditions, are experiencing disappointment and depression. Most Tatars are not prone to radicalism and extremist behavior. The people highly value patience - sabyrlyk, and also the term "tattoo" - consent is held in high esteem, - Valeev is sure. - Now there is a reassessment of values. Is it worth it to be so grave, to lay down their lives, works for the sake of the state? Who can we hope for, how to bring up children “our way”? Disturbing questions are heard from fellow tribesmen living in other regions of Russia. For them, Tatarstan was an ideal, an oasis. Now the situation is changing. The Tatars seemed to have received their sight, it is not customary for us to show grief. But, undoubtedly, the Tatars will never forget the events. last year when it was officially announced that even children and grandchildren do not need to know the Tatar language in Tatarstan itself. Never".

Yesterday, the MICEX index closed the day with a black candle. Support at 2287 (on the morning of 2290) held out at the close, but the fact of its breakdown speaks more in favor of continuing the decline with targets at 2266, 2245 and 2235 - the last supports in this growth cycle. A move below would mean a hike to 2170. If the levels are held, growth may resume with targets at 2330, 2340 and 2385.

The situation looks negative in the morning (although the basis of the negative here is mostly new sanctions)

CP took a timeout to rise and corrected the whole day. Here we are waiting for the end of the correction and the last upward spurt with the targets of 2274 and 2280, after which we are waiting for a more serious correction or even a reversal. The supports tightened to the level of 2840, forming a cluster level, the breakdown of which is better to sell with targets at 2823, 2804 and 2775.

The euro-dollar is once again testing the broken lower border of consolidation (on the morning of 1.162) and is bouncing back so far, which leaves on the stage a scenario with a continuation of the decline with the target of 1.131. Cancellation of the scenario is the breakdown of the upper border of the consolidation (in the morning - 1.1712). In this case, the pair may turn upward with targets at 1.175, 1.186 and 1.204.

Gold continues to hang out sideways. Here we are still waiting for a downward exit from it and reach the main target - 1190, from where we can turn up.

Oil could not continue its growth and fell down, breaking through the control support and slowing down at the next nearest - 71.8 (in the morning - 71.7), from where it is still rolling back. Nevertheless, after a rollback, the decline is most likely to continue, or at least another wave at a break with targets at 71.7 or 70.2. It is difficult to say the target of the pullback, but most likely it will be up to the resistance of 72.95.

The dollar-ruble broke through its resistance at 63.55 and fulfilled all its goals, including the last 65.55 - the upper border of the consolidation of recent months, where it closed. Today we are waiting for the level to be worked out: sell rebound with targets at 64.65, 64.25 and 63. Breakout with retest, buy again with targets at 67, 69.6 and 80.6.

By industry:

The banking sector continued to fall and fulfilled both of its goals, hitting the last -6490. Here, the continuation of the rollback with the targets of 6545 and 6615 is still probable. Cancellation of the scenario - breakdown of support at 6490 (preferably with a retest from below). In this case, we are waiting for the continuation of the fall with the targets of 6390 and 6295.

The oil market went into correction, but closed on local highs, so continued growth is still possible here, although it is on its last legs, which should be taken into account. The target has risen to the level of 6630, where the rebound is worth selling and even shorting. The targets for the decline are at 6385 and 6210.

Metallurgists went into correction without reaching their resistance (5935 in the morning), but won back most of it by the close, which so far speaks more in favor of continuing growth and reaching the level. Then we look at its development: we sell the pullback with the targets of 5760 and 5690, the breakout with retest we buy with the targets of 6085 and 6170.

The energy sector continued to fall, breaking through its first support in 1762 (on the morning of 1758) and slightly falling short of the second -1735. Today we are waiting for the finish to 1735 and the level working out: we buy the retreat with the targets of 1758, 1782 and 1800, the breakout is sold again with the target of 1686.

Telecoms seem to have decided on the direction and moved down. We are waiting for the sector according to its targets: 1707 and 1656. Cancellation of the scenario - breakdown of resistance 1761 with a retest from above, in this case, growth may continue to the level of 1845.

Bottom line: we are waiting for attempts to continue the decline. The purposes and conditions of cancellation are stated above.

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