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Study of consumer demand in a trading enterprise. Forecasting demand, structure and sales volume

Developmental marketing is associated with a formative influence on potential demand. It brings good results if there is an actively unrealized demand (for example, there is a desire to draw up a horoscope, but the reader does not know the necessary literature, is not informed about its availability in the library, is not aware of the list of additional services provided). The goal of this type of marketing is to turn potential demand into real demand.

Another aspect of the characteristics of category "P". is to distinguish between P. as such and demand as the external form of their manifestation. The historical conditionality of P. and demand leads to the fact that in a complex system of social P. various combinations of objective and subjective principles are found. Absolutely necessary is, for example, the nutrition of the human body in calories, vitamins and mineral salts. But the range of products in which they are contained is largely a matter of taste and habit. Therefore, it is necessary to distinguish between P. as the internal state of the consuming subject and as the external manifestation of this state, as the need to have a certain amount of specific goods that can satisfy a given P. Demand reflects P. in specific quantities of goods for a certain consumer purpose, but not all P.. but only those that are backed by cash. Thus, demand usually means solvent items, i.e. the part of money backed by money in goods and services sold in commodity form. P.'s development and satisfaction depend on consumption. If there are goods on the market that correspond to demand, it contributes to the emergence of exchange and consumption, therefore, consumer demand precedes consumption and at the same time is its reflection in the form of realized demand. The income of the population and its level of income are factors that form effective demand. Price in industrial goods is determined by technology and production volume.

To close the material block, it is necessary to link the volume of sales on the domestic market with the price of gas. To do this, it must be borne in mind that in the block for calculating the material balance equations, real consumption appears (i.e., satisfied demand), while in the price formation block, both actual and potential consumption (i.e., total demand) are involved. The calculation of potential consumption is described in paragraph 5.3, and the realized demand is determined both by the possibility of utilization of a given type of resource, changing in accordance with the age distribution of generating capacity, and by a comparison of energy prices.

Realized demand is part of actual demand, which is sold on the market in purchased goods and services. Realized demand completely coincides with actual demand, when the goods offered on the market in terms of quantity, range and quality fully meet the requirements of buyers. If there is no such correspondence, the unrealized part of the actual demand turns into unsatisfied demand.

In the first case (i.e., when developing reporting balances of supply and demand), two types of balances should be drawn up, one calculated based on the actual size of demand, the second based on data on actually realized demand. This must be done in order to be able to identify the real market situation in the reporting period, provide an analysis of the expected (planned) and actual relationship between supply and demand in the domestic market, and identify a possible excess of supply over demand or, conversely, the presence of unsatisfied demand.

Sold products 202 Realized demand 136 Real wages 83 Real incomes 96 Diet 299 Retail prices 116 - unified all-Union prices 116

Small retail trade enterprises may use non-automated methods for accounting for the intragroup structure of realized demand (data on inventories and receipt of goods, inventory materials, accounting for sales by sales receipts, etc.).

Along with taking into account the realized demand in stores to study demand, the collection of information is organized on the analysis of inventory, taking into account unsatisfied demand and customer requirements for the quality of goods.

A high-quality and comprehensive solution to this complex problem requires special research and significant resources. This is due not only to the lack of information about the development trends of the emerging consumer goods market, but also to the significant distance between the initial (initial) and final (desired) state of the project in the area of its internal environment. The study of organizational and managerial aspects of the marketing activities of enterprises, as elements of this environment, indicates that the problem of operational accounting of product flow in retail trade has not been resolved, which, in turn, is the main limiting factor in the implementation of methods of operational analysis and management into practice. As you know, the most important condition for organizing operational analysis (both retrospective and forecast) is a solid information base based on computer technology. Existing computer accounting systems, which are widely used today, have a number of shortcomings, the main one of which is the impossibility of organizing work on analyzing turnover - stocks of goods of realized demand and forecasting future sales volumes - in the nomenclature breakdown of goods. On the other hand, the cost of foreign-made analytical systems (tens of thousands of US dollars) makes them inaccessible even to large trade associations. We cannot ignore the personnel problem, which is very relevant for Russian trade organizations. To overcome traditional resistance to innovation, it is necessary to consider training existing personnel and (or) attracting new qualified marketing, sales and management specialists as one of the important tasks of the project.

Lower prices than those determined by the state of effective demand in a particular period can only be the result of a targeted trade policy of sellers. The most common motives for such a policy include expanding sales volume and, in this way, total revenue, of course, if the physical growth of the mass of goods sold exceeds the dynamics of its reduction in price. However, it may also have a less typical motivation. For example, as many researchers recognize and as the author has previously tried to show here, political interests have a much stronger influence on Saudi Arabia's commodity strategy, in contrast to most other developing oil-exporting countries. Also noticeable is the impact of economic interests that go beyond the oil and gas industry itself and are associated primarily with the problems of safety and self-expansion of Saudi investments abroad, concentrated mainly in the West, the largest of the holdings of OPEC member states.

An example of a situation with high elasticity is given for E = 2 (line Xi.sYs). In this case, even a slight excess of the equilibrium price leads to an accelerated reduction in demand and the amount of sales, while a decrease in price is accompanied by a rapid expansion of the physical mass of products sold, due to which the decrease in its value significantly lags behind price dynamics.

A project is a capital investment proposal that, if implemented, will deprive other projects of capital. Managing projects or meeting the demand for capital is called capital budgeting. This is a very important function of managers. In textbooks, capital investment decisions are called projects, and they involve the expenditure of money or expenses incurred at some point in time. This expenditure or investment is expected to produce benefits, i.e. profit.

Obviously, the quantity of products (works, services) sold by a manufacturing enterprise, or goods sold by a trading company, is determined by supply and demand for them.

Any of these groups or a representative of a group, under certain conditions, can be a carrier of the risk of lack of demand for products. For example, an incorrect forecast of demand for an enterprise’s products by specialists will lead to inadequate sales; the produced volume of products (or part of it) will not be sold and will exceed demand. As a result, the company will suffer economic damage. Or the supply department employees purchased other raw materials or other material resources than were provided for during product development. As a result, it did not (or ceased to be) in demand, and the actual sales volume turned out to be lower than planned.

Disaster cycle. You can get money for sold inventory, i.e. finished products, raw materials. Excess raw materials and materials can be sold without processing or used in the production and production of finished products. Goods and finished products, if they are in demand, will quickly find a buyer who will pay for them.

IRK) kiK shows how much profit is generated per unit of product sold. Height k

Time delays in payments for sold products Shipment only after prepayment Development of new markets with a more developed payment system (for example, exports to Western Europe) Focus only on guaranteed paying customers Reduction in sales volume due to decreased demand Marketing costs in Western Europe Reduction in sales volume due to restrictions on consumer choice

Thus, to summarize what has been said, we can reasonably approach marketing as a management activity. The essence of this activity is that it is aimed at orienting production to create types of products that reflect the requirements of certain markets. Market demand is studied and used as the basis for the company's activities with the expectation that the created product will be sold through exchange transactions and will be able to satisfy needs (production and personal). Hence the requirements for research, design and development, investment decisions and decisions in the field of logistics (industrial cooperation). Hence the need for specifically defined thinking (market thinking), which allows us to provide an appropriate approach at all stages of the creation and marketing of such types of products that meet market demand.

One of the most important indicators for assessing the performance of an industrial enterprise is the volume of products sold. This indicator focuses the enterprise on producing products necessary for the national economy, improving their quality and meeting consumer demand. Timely sale of industrial products ensures the continuity of the production process and accelerates the turnover of funds.

Thus, a greater value of the value of sold products than the value of commodity or gross indicates the inability of the enterprise to satisfy the growing effective demand. Large production capacities are required.

The relationship between the magnitude of effective demand and the quantity of money comes close to what is usually called the “velocity of circulation of money in relation to income,” with the only caveat that effective demand corresponds to the expected income, the hope of which set the entire production process in motion, and not really realized income, and, moreover, gross, not net. But “the velocity of circulation of money in relation to income” is just a name that in itself does not explain anything. There is no reason to expect that it will be constant, since it depends, as has already been shown, on many complex and variable factors. The use of this term obscures, in my opinion, the real nature of the causal relationship and only leads to confusion.

Taxable turnover is taken to be the cost of goods (work, services) sold, calculated on the basis of applicable prices and tariffs without including VAT, except for sales at state regulated prices and tariffs that include VAT. When calculating taxable turnover for excisable goods, it includes the amount of excise tax. The amounts of advance payments (including for export deliveries) and other payments received on account of upcoming deliveries of goods or performance of work (services) and partial payment for sold goods (work, services) are subject to taxation. From January 1, 1999, in accordance with Art. 40 of the Tax Code of the Russian Federation, when calculating taxable turnover, the actual price (established in the contract) of the sale of goods (work, services) is used, even if it is lower than cost, i.e. it is assumed that this price corresponds to the level of market prices. The market price is the price established by the interaction of supply and demand on the market of identical, homogeneous goods (works, services) in comparable economic conditions. The market means

Distribution processes occur not only through finance, but also through prices and credit. As you know, there is a price

Modern multi-counter cash registers read information from barcodes that are supplied with goods and located on the packaging, which also allows you to obtain complete information about what has been sold.

The study of demand at the enterprise level can be studied in the form of buyer conferences, exhibitions, sales exhibitions, fairs, presentations, etc.

Holding buyer (sometimes called consumer) conferences is most appropriate at enterprises that have a fairly constant contingent of buyers (consumers) (for example, model houses, equipment houses, catering establishments).

· express their opinions and wishes, and in the second - the preliminary demand is considered, the tasks, volume and nature of the survey.

· Development of targeted and program surveys.

· Choosing the method of conducting the survey and the persons interviewed.

· Development of a pilot questionnaire, its testing and final editing of questions.

In the first case, the survey is carried out by a specially trained person and is distributed to customers at the enterprise being surveyed with a request to fill them out immediately. The advantage of this method is the ease of distributing questionnaires.

· A very common panel survey is also conducted through a written survey. The term “panel” refers to a list of respondents for enterprise development;

· development of forecasts for trade and economic activity;

· improving the organization of the trade and technological process;

· increasing the level of customer service;

are:

Organizing and ensuring constant recording of information that allows for a comprehensive characterization of local demand for goods and services;

on the basis of which the process of operational management and planning is carried out, which is practically expressed in an increase in trade turnover, both in actual and comparable prices, the amount of profit, as well as in increasing the profitability of a trading enterprise.

2. Research of consumer demand using the example of the enterprise “Store No. 28”

2.1 Organizational and economic characteristics of the enterprise

The object of the study is store No. 28 of the Nc work supply department - 7 of the Yaroslavl road work supply center - a branch of Russian Railways OJSC. Abbreviated name - store No. 28 N-sky ORS - 7 Yaroslavl DC RS - branch of JSC Russian Railways. Legal address: 169500, Nsk, st. Zheleznodorozhnaya, 1.

The main type is persons and individual entrepreneurs without forming a separate legal entity.

Single stores in urban areas usually include stores with a sales area from 251 to 1000 sq.m. The store's sales area is 400 sq.m.

The interior of the sales area is designed simply and concisely and serves its main purpose - to highlight the product and emphasize its consumer properties for the convenience of customers. The configuration of the store's sales area can be considered rational, since its shape is close to a square. data presented in Appendix 1, we can conclude that the enterprise’s turnover in 2006 increased by 25.33% or 2843 thousand rubles. The growth in trade turnover is due to a decrease in the cost of products sold, as well as an increase in prices for goods.

Next, we move on to the analysis and assessment of the assortment and structure of trade turnover (Appendix 2). All product groups achieved high growth rates in product sales. In the reporting year, compared to the previous year, sales of meat increased by 403.41 thousand rubles, fish - by 298.37 thousand rubles, alcoholic products - by 707.32 thousand rubles. The uneven development of trade turnover in individual groups led to changing its structure. In particular, the share in trade turnover for such product groups as oil, fats, dairy products, flour, cereals, vegetables and fruits decreased. The average number of employees increased by 2 people, trade turnover increased by 2843 thousand rubles, while the average salary per employee increased by 1.54%, while it decreased by 1.24%. The financial stability of the enterprise for the analyzed period is measured by a system of indicators in comparison of their values with the base ones, as well as financing. At the enterprise “Magazin No. 28” this coefficient at the beginning of the year was equal to 0.56, by the end of the year its value increased to 0.72, with a standard value of >0.5. That is, there is a decreasing dependence of the enterprise on the size, which is confirmed by the coefficients calculated above.

2.2 Assessment of the volume and structure of realized demand

As already defined in the previous section, the population’s demand for goods is a form of manifestation of needs, provided with a monetary equivalent. The development of demand is determined by a system of various factors (prices of goods, groups). Demand, being a solvent need, can take various forms. There are realized, unsatisfied and emerging demand.

Realized demand corresponds to that part of the demand presented by the population, and part of the actual demand
population demand, which at one time or another was not realized
due to the unavailability of the required products.

Emerging demand is a set of new requirements made by buyers for consumer properties, quality and all types of demand and take them into account in trade activities.

The population's demand for consumer goods is characterized by volume and. rubles due to excess inventories at the beginning of the year (+56 thousand rubles) and overfulfillment of the plan for the receipt of goods (+505 thousand rubles). Opportunities for increasing trade turnover decreased due to an increase in other disposals of goods (-2 thousand rubles) and inflated inventories at the end of the year (-151 thousand rubles). Inflated inventories at the end of the analyzed period. Calculate the amount of realized demand using formula 1: In 2005: P = 519 + 11395 – 681 = 11233 thousand rubles. 2006 as meat (growth rate was 127.23%), alcoholic products (growth rate - 127.52%) and bakery products (growth rate - 128.81%). In physical terms, realized demand for these product groups increased by 403.41 thousand rubles, 707.31 thousand rubles. and 116.42 thousand rubles. respectively. The lowest growth rate is observed in the “flour” and “vegetables” product groups.

2.3 Assessment of unmet demand of the enterprise

The study of realized and unsatisfied demand is closely related to each other according to most of the methods used. Since quantitatively unsatisfied. In this regard, the main goal of studying unsatisfied demand is to identify the reasons for its occurrence and the possible extent of change. In relative numbers. Let us calculate the size of unsatisfied demand for the products of the enterprise “Store No. 28” using formula 2. In 2005: Рн = (1 – 0.85 ) * 11233 = 1684.95 thousand rubles. In 2006: Рн = (1-0.9) * 14078 = 1407.8 thousand rubles. Unsatisfied demand decreased in 2006 by 277.15 thousand rubles.

2.4 Assessing the influence of factors shaping the implementation of demand

Among the main factors influencing the formation of demand for a trading enterprise, it is customary to take into account: the price of goods, the income level of consumers, consumer decisions: brand promotion, consumer age, gender, place of residence, personal characteristics 16%)

2.Consumer income level. Consumers purchasing goods sold by store No. 28 have different purchasing power) with an income of up to 2,000 rubles per month per family member

3) 5 enterprises.

3. buyers of store No. 28, for which we will draw up table 9 (Appendix 9).

Having analyzed Table 9, we can conclude that the assortment most fully satisfies the needs of the second segment of buyers, namely business people with a permanent place of work, quality-oriented

weighing them);

· Payment for selected goods and receipt of purchase.

The nature and structure of operations for the sale of goods depend primarily on the range of goods sold and the methods of their sale. In retail

The responsibility of the seller working in store No. 28 is to perform the following customer service operations: meeting the buyer and identifying his intentions; offer and display of goods; assistance in choosing a product and consultation; offering related and new products; carrying out technological operations related to cutting, weighing; settlement operations; packaging and delivery of purchases.

The number of people coming is reduced in store No. 28 due to qualified sales workers, as well as due to well-equipped workplaces where there is the necessary commercial equipment, inventory, and proper packaging material. Time was spent on the purchase of goods. We will evaluate the effectiveness of the method of selling over the counter of (traditional) store No. 28 by analyzing technological, quality and economic indicators

commercial equipment. This ratio in the reporting year is higher than in the past, which indicates the positive work of the management of store No. 15, which constantly monitors the rational use of retail services for customers and the full satisfaction of consumer demand.

1) Services provided to customers in the process of purchasing goods. These services are aimed at enabling customers to more efficiently select, select and pay for goods.

Such services include cutting and primary processing of individual products. At the buyer's request, they can prepare minced meat or semi-finished meat products from meat.

INTRODUCTION

The material is aimed at specialists working in Russia. The level of development of the market for research and information services (consulting) is determined, first of all, by the socio-economic situation in the region, as well as the level and principles of business development. The economic situation, the conditions for the functioning of production (business) in Russia, at the moment, are fundamentally different from the situation in European or American markets. The mentality and basic principles of behavior of all consumer groups - the population, business owners, professionals representing the interests of companies - are also different.

The section “Notes of a Marketer”, published in “PRACTICE...” since 1995, was implemented as a summary of the basic introductory lecture course “Marketing Research”. Seven years of publications have sufficiently “developed and polished” the Abstract, and last year it was decided to complete the publication of the theoretical foundations of the research business. But life forced us to change our minds. The format of the annual publication does not allow us to completely abandon the “basic concepts and principles,” but we have the right to reduce the “theory” to the necessary and sufficient volume.

From our point of view, for most managers, Abstracts and Illustrations*/ on the topic “Study of the external environment of business” will be enough.

*/ “Visual information processing is typical for 70% of people, 15% prefer auditory processing (auditory) and 15% prefer kinesthetic (physical sensations)” (Rossiter J.R., Percy L., “Advertising and Promotion”)

Definition of CONSULTING SERVICES AND MARKETING RESEARCH

The entire range of services of a consulting firm is one way or another aimed at solving problems associated with managing the activities of an enterprise. Consequently, consulting services include activities to provide any information necessary for the Company to solve a particular problem.

Due to the fact that the definition of “consulting” includes an extremely wide range of services, we consider it necessary to narrow the topic of conversation to “business consulting” (in the “narrow” sense).

Business consulting(in the “narrow” sense) - a set of services for analyzing information about the current state and dynamics of the “external environment” and “resources” of the consulted enterprise. The purpose of business consulting is to provide information that allows the Company to take the desired position in a changing external environment, taking into account available resources.

Marketing research- a set of activities involving the collection, registration and analysis of information in order to facilitate the process of making responsible management decisions. In this case, marketing research is one of the sectors of the consulting services market.

The hierarchy of the concepts of “marketing research” and “business consulting” with such a definition is extremely simple and understandable: marketing research is a set of activities to collect information about the state (changes) of the “external environment” of an enterprise (firm), and business consulting is a system for interpreting the results marketing research in the interests of developing a specific business. The result of most business consulting contracts is the provision of information and recommendations aimed at increasing the company's sales (profits).

I would like to draw your attention to the fact that I fundamentally disagree with those consultants who define the goal as “increasing the sales volume (profit) of the company.” The consultant must do his best to ensure that his information and recommendations are used appropriately and lead to the desired result, but ensure that this is a “substitution of concepts.”

Option A. The climbing instructor takes the group and says, “In a month, with my help, you will be able to climb the Summit.”

Option B. The climbing instructor takes the group and says, “In a month you will be at the Summit.”

The promises under Option “B” clearly go beyond the scope of both the professional duties and the physical capabilities of the Instructor, unless he will carry on himself one, several or all members of the group who, for various reasons, will not want or will not be able to make the climb.

Business consulting is a continuation of the activities of a research firm in the interests of the Customer, and, therefore, it is quite logical to develop the direction of providing consulting services (in the narrow sense) within an organization specializing in marketing research.

Business consulting requires additional professional knowledge and skills from the Researcher (mastery of methods for analyzing and forecasting the economic situation, diagnosing the general production situation, etc.), but business consulting is, in principle, impossible without adequate information about the state and dynamics of the “external environment” ( volumes and structure of demand, actions of competitors, macroeconomic factors).

A professionally organized process of marketing research (the process of collecting and processing marketing information) is a necessary condition for successful activities in the field of business consulting.

To organize the process of collecting and processing marketing information, RESEARCH INFRASTRUCTURE is required, which includes:

specialists with work experience and special knowledge (skills in collecting, systematizing and processing information), as well as technical personnel providing processes for the formation (redistribution) of information arrays;
interviewers, as well as a system for managing and monitoring their work;
methodological developments to ensure procedures for collecting and processing information;
material base that allows the implementation of procedures, as well as special software for entering, processing and outputting survey results;
auxiliary information arrays.

The research infrastructure is constantly evolving, because Specialists and interviewers gain experience, information arrays and sources are selected. Obviously, the infrastructure of firms with different experience in different markets will be different. The Customer’s desire to work exclusively with a researcher who has experience in a specific market is understandable, but not always justified, because methods for collecting information are “standard”, and the volume of industry research, as a rule, does not allow maintaining a full-fledged infrastructure.

Main directions of marketing research

Market research, as a certain process, can be classified by objects/subjects of research, or by industry. Often there are classifiers based on dividing studies according to the methods used to collect information.

From our point of view, all options for classifying marketing research have a right to exist, but are probably useless for the Customer (company). A company ordering marketing research is interested (should be interested!) in the result, and, therefore, it is more logical to structure the process according to basic goals and objectives.

MAIN GOALS (OBJECTIVES) OF MARKETING RESEARCH:

assessment of volumes and structure of demand in the region;
assessment of real supply in the market sector under study, information on the volume and structure (range/price) of supply;
consumer preferences, identification of factors that significantly influence their behavior;
determination of the “portrait” of the Consumer, his information preferences;
testing advertising ideas, materials, etc.;
analysis of the effectiveness of advertising events.

Main stages of marketing research

Statement of the problem, development of research methodology (formation and approval of the Terms of Reference).
Development and coordination with the Customer of basic methods for collecting information, incl. Questionnaires, registration forms and sampling principles.
Implementation of a set of measures to collect information (surveys, requests, visualization, etc.).
Measures to control the quality of work to collect primary information (questionnaires, interviews).
Processing the results of surveys, interviews, focus groups.
Analysis and structuring of the entire complex of information on the problem (subject area), incl. "internal" information of the Customer
Formulation of conclusions, forecasts, recommendations.
Preparation of a printed report containing the necessary text information, tables and graphs. The report contains comments, conclusions and forecasts of specialists from GORTIS - marketing research, consulting within the framework of the assigned tasks.
Presentation of research results. Transfer to the Customer of all primary materials, audio and video recordings, if any were planned.
Consulting support based on research results.

Tools

Instrumentation methods for collecting information when conducting research

Secondary data- all information ever collected for any purpose and published (stored). Main disadvantages: information may be out of date; may not be directly related to the problem being solved; may not be valid or reliable; The amount of existing information available for study can be enormous.

It should be noted that the use of “Russian open sources” of secondary information requires professional knowledge and skills. With some effort, you will find in open sources two or three (or more) different versions of the same (if you believe the description provided) parameter or characteristic. It’s good if the differences in estimates are insignificant and you can guess (using certain professional knowledge and skills) about the nature of the differences, but often the differences are significant, and their nature is unclear.

Primary data- information created as part of solving a specific Problem.

There are three channels for obtaining primary information - surveys, registration, experiments.

Within the framework of “surveys,” it is customary to distinguish between qualitative and quantitative methods of collecting information about the subject of research.

Quantitative research answers the “who” and “how many” questions. It helps to assess the level of popularity, identify the main consumer groups, and analyze sales prospects. Qualitative research answers the “how” and “why” questions.

Quantitative Research- surveys and questioning of a sufficiently large number of respondents. The results have a numerical expression, i.e. can be presented in the form of (statistically significant) distributions, cross-tabulations (“contingency tables”). When working with the results of quantitative research, it is permissible to use statistical estimation methods.

Interview- this is a conversation conducted according to a pre-developed plan, involving direct contact between the interviewer and the respondent, during which the interviewer records the respondent’s answers.

Questioning is an indirect (through a questionnaire) way of communication between the researcher and the respondent. The respondent gets acquainted with the content of the questionnaire, independently interprets the meaning of the questions and records his answers.

Population– a set of elements that satisfy certain specified conditions; also called the study population. General population (Universe) - the entire set of objects (subjects) of research, from which objects (subjects) are selected (can be selected) for a survey (survey).

SAMPLE or sample population (Sample)- this is a set of objects (subjects) selected in a special way for a survey (survey). Any data obtained on the basis of a sample survey (survey) is probabilistic in nature. In practice, this means that during the study, it is not a specific value that is determined, but the interval in which the determined value is located.

Representative sample- a sample population in which the main characteristics of the research subjects selected for the survey (interviewed) completely coincide with the same characteristics of the general population. Only for this type of sample can the results of a survey of some units (objects) be extended to the entire population. A necessary condition for constructing a representative sample is the availability of information about the general population, i.e. either a complete list of units (subjects) of the general population, or information about the structure according to characteristics that significantly influence the relationship to the subject of research.

The choice of method depends on the goals and objectives of a particular study, and, therefore, there are no “bad” methods; there are consequences of illiterate use of certain research techniques to solve certain problems. According to the method of contact with the respondent, the main types of interviews and questionnaires are “personal” and “telephone”.

Telephone interviews can and should be used when it is necessary to collect information from a sample that is representative of the main socio-demographic parameters for the entire population or fairly common groups. Conducting population surveys that require constructing a representative sample using telephone interviews is possible only in settlements (regions) with a telephone penetration level of over 75%. In St. Petersburg, at least 85% of families have telephones, and the average in Russia is probably less than 50%.

Personal interviews can and should be used when conducting surveys on targeted samples (obtaining information about a specific population group). A personal interview is indispensable when it is necessary to present the respondent with a significant amount of visual information.

A mail survey does not require a large staff of interviewers, but does require a professional approach to creating a sample - compiling a (addressed) mailing list. The problem of "incomplete returns" is not the main one when conducting a mail survey. The problem of “structural biases” in the sample is much more serious, because Depending on the topic of the survey, either young people, pensioners, housewives, etc. may take a more active part in it. It is often impossible to estimate bias based on the survey topic. A type of mail survey is the distribution of a questionnaire in a publication. Despite their apparent simplicity, it is necessary to be extremely careful when using such surveys as a method of collecting information.

HALL-TEST- Formally refers to quantitative methods of obtaining information. Testing is carried out in a special room, and respondents’ answers are recorded in a questionnaire. What the hall test has in common with qualitative methods is that the information is obtained from a relatively small targeted sample (from 100 to 400 people), and also that the respondent is asked to comment (explain) his behavior. The method is used to assess consumer properties and test elements of advertising messages.

HOME-TEST- used when long-term testing of a product is necessary (over several days). Testing is done at home. The test results, characterizing the respondent’s attitude towards the tested product, are recorded in a questionnaire (“diary”).

Qualitative methods of collecting information- in-depth interviews, focus groups. The results do NOT have a numerical expression, i.e. presented exclusively in the form of opinions, judgments, assessments, statements.

FOCUS GROUP. The focus group method is one of the most effective methods of qualitative research. “Typical” representatives (8-10 people) of the target market are invited to participate in a group discussion of a product, service or market situation. For one and a half to two hours, a trained presenter (moderator) leads the conversation, which proceeds quite freely, but according to a specific scheme (topic guide). The discussion is recorded on video and audio tape.

IN-DEPTH INTERVIEWS- a semi-structured interview with an Expert or a representative of the Task Force on a specific topic. The typology and volume of answers are not regulated; the structure of the conversation is maintained by the Interviewer. In general, the presence of structure is what distinguishes a survey from chatter. An example of a highly structured process for obtaining information is questionnaires with ready-made answers to each question.

HARDWARE REGISTRATION METHODS Respondent reactions are usually used during testing. A method for recording the viewer's reaction at the moment of viewing (listening) to advertising, broadcasting other video and audio fragments using hand-held remote controls. The remote control is used to record ratings of any parameters during viewing or listening. It is believed that such a method makes it possible to directly observe the reactions of group members (from our point of view, this statement is not indisputable).

Despite the huge number of different research methods and techniques, the general scheme of activities implemented within the framework of market research is quite simple and understandable.

Features of conducting interviews and surveys

Most questions can be answered, but the real problem is whether they will mean anything.

CHURCHILL G.A., “MARKETING RESEARCH”

As a rule, it is economically feasible to entrust work on conducting surveys (questionnaires) to professional research organizations.

Surveys (interviews) and questionnaires - these methods of collecting information only seem to be something elementary...

The main stages of conducting a survey, interview:

familiarity with the subject area;
development of a questionnaire and/or survey materials, focus group plan (topic guide);
To develop a high-quality questionnaire, the Specialist must have theoretical knowledge, work experience and abilities.
calculations of sample parameters, i.e. it is necessary to determine who and in what quantity needs to be interviewed so that the results are suitable for analysis;
sampling;
Theoretical calculations and research practice prove that to obtain reliable data on the opinions and preferences of the population of a large city, it is enough to survey 700-800 people. Most population surveys are conducted on samples of 500 to 3,000 people. However, the statement that the more people surveyed, the better the results, is not entirely true. The accuracy and reliability of the results depend, first of all, not on the size of the sample, but on its composition or structure. The composition (structure) of the sample is determined by the method of its formation. The method of formation is a much more significant characteristic of the sample than the size.
instructing interviewers (setting the task);
conducting interviews or surveys;
Interviewers are NOT students, schoolchildren, acquaintances who want to earn extra money, or company employees temporarily hired to collect primary information. What these groups of people can and sometimes do do is only superficially similar to the work of an interviewer. An interviewer is a profession. The key to quality work of interviewers is decent payment for their work and strict control. Personnel turnover in the interviewing staff is a big minus. Work experience is a plus.
quality control of information collection procedures;
formation of summary databases or spreadsheets (entering information into a computer);
processing and analysis of results.

Methods for assessing volumes and structure of demand

Methods for estimating demand volumes
Typology of approaches

In order to determine the volume of demand for a specific product/service (group of goods), it is necessary to understand what properties of the product/service will, first of all, influence the set of techniques and methods (methodology) used when carrying out work to estimate demand volumes.

The construction of the “Typologization Map...” presented below is based on the principle of the frequency of presence of a “sign” in the aggregate or an assessment of the number of persons capable of providing the necessary information. It is assumed that the number of “able to provide the necessary information” will depend on the number of users of the product/service in the region and the frequency of use of the product/service.

MAP OF TYPOLOGIZATION OF GOODS AND SERVICES WHEN SELECTING METHODS FOR STUDYING VOLUME OF DEMAND AND FORECASTING VOLUME OF CONSUMPTION

type 1- quantitative methods can be used to study demand volumes, i.e. forecasts of demand volumes can be made based on surveys. Analysis of secondary information and interviews with experts can and should be used as an additional source of information.
type 1-2- to assess demand volumes, it is necessary to implement sets of research activities, where surveys of “large” samples may take place, but will not be the main source of information.
type 2- to study the volume of demand for goods, analysis of secondary information, surveys of experts and representatives of certain population groups (directed, quasi-representative samples), as well as registration should be used as basic methods of collecting information.

When developing a program of measures to assess the volume and structure of demand, it seems appropriate to analyze the “scheme” of promoting the product to the consumer. In general terms it can be represented:

The volume of demand for Goods of any type can be assessed “from the Manufacturer” - the volume of demand is equal to the volume of production plus the total balance of export-import operations and minus the balance of inventory (TK) at all stages of promoting the product to the consumer.

The scheme will be implemented if there is only one manufacturer, export-import is known or absent, and the intermediate link and inventory are small or absent. Possible applications: instruments, machines, certain groups of building materials, some services.

If production and export-import operations are not controlled, and consumers are relatively few in number and difficult to reach, then it is possible to estimate the volume of demand by analyzing information received from wholesalers.

The presented typology of approaches to assessing the volumes and structure of demand was developed by specialists of the company "GORTIS" - marketing research, consulting "based on their own twelve years of experience, including work on the following markets, product groups and categories:

automotive chemistry
rental of office and retail premises
ACS of technological processes
audio, video, household appliances
billiards, bowling
women's outerwear
vodka
hotel services
cargo transportation
ceramic and tiles
sausage products
commercial real estate
flour and confectionery products
low alc. beverages
soft drinks
Banking services
building brick
construction paints
cream cakes, pastries
roofing materials
women's swimsuits
paint and varnish materials (special, general)
medicines
butter, oil and fat mixtures
furniture for home
interior doors
mineral water
frozen meat
outdoor advertising
electric pumps, household
petroleum products and related services
residential real estate objects
clothing for sports and active recreation
clothes and shoes
window designs
office equipment
office furniture
tongue-and-groove blocks (building materials)
parquet
dumplings
beer restaurant
lumber
bead wire, thin ropes (industrial purpose)
poultry plant products (eggs, meat), retail/wholesale
printing Services
vegetable oil
plumbing equipment
lamps, chandeliers of the upper price group
chicken sausages
household chemicals
cellular
laser vision correction
mass media (newspapers, magazines, radio stations, TV channels, directories)
glass blocks (GOST 9272-81), wholesale
insurance services
dry construction mixtures (building materials)
shrink polyethylene film
products of the perfumery and cosmetics group
commercial refrigeration equipment
fertilizers and fertilizers for gardeners
business education, training
leisure, recreation, entertainment
cosmetic surgery
provision of cars for rent
telephone information services
jewelry, etc.

Schemes for collecting information to estimate demand volumes

Methods for collecting information necessary to assess the volume and structure of demand for goods (services), in most cases, fit into the Four Schemes. In rare cases, the methodology involves a combination of Schemes or other methods of collecting information.

BASIC COMMENTS ON THE DIAGRAMS

Without exception, all Schemes involve, to one degree or another, work on collecting, systematizing and analyzing secondary information, because Special knowledge of the subject area is a necessary condition for successful work.

“Expert” is a specialist who has sufficient knowledge about the situation in the market being studied or about the subject of research.

“TG” - target group - potential users of the product (service).

The principles for forming a “directed” sample are agreed upon with the Customer.

SCHEME 1. The assessment of demand volumes is based on the results of a personal interview (outside the home) based on a targeted sample with the mandatory use of secondary information, as well as on the results of registration at places of sale of goods or provision of services for an adequate interpretation of the survey results.

Respondent status- “TG” or “Expert”.

Sample sizes- from 50-80 to 600-800 people.

Applicable for work in relatively “narrow” (“industry”) markets, when information carriers have obvious characteristics by which they can be selected for survey.

SCHEME 2. The assessment of demand volumes is based on the results of a telephone interview at the workplace of a targeted sample with the mandatory (highly desirable) use of secondary information for an adequate interpretation of the survey results.

Respondent status- “TsG” and/or “Expert”.

Sample sizes- 50-80 for “Experts” and, as a rule, from 300 to 600 respondents for “TG”.

The possibilities for use are the same as in Scheme 1, but are used in the case when a telephone conversation is acceptable or advisable, rather than a personal meeting.

SCHEME 3. The assessment of demand volumes is based on the analysis of secondary information and the results of personal and/or telephone interviews with a targeted sample.

Respondent status- “TG” or “Expert”.

Sample sizes- 25-60 for “Experts” and 400-600 respondents for “TG”.

Applicable for studying markets with a relatively small number of participants offering their goods (services).

SCHEME 4. The assessment of demand volumes is based on the results of a telephone residential interview, the sample is representative (in terms of parameters...) with the desirable use of secondary information for an adequate interpretation of the survey results.

Respondent status- “residents of St. Petersburg”, “TsG”.

Sample sizes- from 1000 to 3000 respondents.

Used to study markets for “consumer goods” or “mass services.”

Schemes for collecting information to estimate demand for a new product are always less obvious. A new product is a product/service for which there were no complete analogues or close substitutes on the market before its introduction.

A simplified version of the scheme for assessing demand for a “new product” involves the following activities:

Analysis of secondary information, incl. comparison with other geographic markets where the product or service may already be present.
Assessment of the scale of the functional need satisfied by the new product (service), identification of the need that a person will satisfy with the help of the new product and assessment of market capacity by factors influencing “methods of satisfaction”*/. Methods for collecting information can be different; there is a place for public surveys, interviews with experts, and focus groups.

Forecasting demand for a new product is always a SET of activities within the framework of a UNIQUE research program.

*/ “Trial purchase rates for new packaged products by type of product category (%% of [US] households that made a trial purchase in the first year of the TM product being introduced to the market): average for all products - 13%, Household goods - 29% , Food products (except for non-alcoholic soft drinks, for which there is a significantly higher percentage of trial purchases) - 13%, Medical and cosmetic products - 16%
The average frequency of repeat purchases of different brands of the same product category differs slightly. This makes it possible, knowing the average frequency of purchases and the percentage of trial purchases, to determine the volume of possible sales of a new brand of product.”
Rossiter J.R., Percy L., Advertising and Promotion, Peter, 2001.

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General characteristics of forecasting methods used in marketing research.

The problem of forecasting, due to rapid, sometimes poorly predictable changes in the external environment, has become especially difficult over the past decade. Given these difficulties and the criticality of forecast errors, some experts have been forced to talk about the futility of forecasting. In fact, forecasting is a responsibility that all organizations must inevitably perform, either explicitly or implicitly.

In addition to obtaining possible future estimates of certain parameters under study, the purpose of forecasting is also to encourage thinking about what may happen in the external environment and what consequences this will lead to for the company. Forecasting increases managers' alertness and therefore their ability to respond to change. This effect is achieved even when the plan is not fulfilled due to the fact that some of the hypotheses underlying the forecast scenario did not materialize.

Forecasting methods, like all methods used in marketing research, can be classified into heuristic, in the application of which subjective principles predominate, and into economic and mathematical methods, in the application of which objective principles predominate, which include statistical methods.

Heuristic methods assume that the approaches used to form a forecast are not explicitly stated and are inseparable from the person making the forecast, the development of which is dominated by intuition, previous experience, creativity and imagination. This category of methods includes sociological research methods and expert methods. Moreover, respondents, giving their assessments, can base their judgments both on bare intuition and using certain cause-and-effect relationships, statistics and calculations.

Thus, when forecasting demand, consumer preferences are studied; Sales personnel serving certain territories, dealers, distributors, marketing consultants, etc. can be considered experts.

When using economic and mathematical methods, approaches to forecasting are clearly formulated and can be reproduced by others who will inevitably come to obtain the same forecast.

If, when using expert methods, the structure of cause-and-effect relationships used by different experts may be different, then when using economic-mathematical methods, the structure of the models is established and tested experimentally, under conditions that can be objectively observed and measured.

Determining the system of factors and the cause-and-effect (casual) structure of the phenomenon under study is the starting point of economic and mathematical

modeling.

In fact, all these methods are complementary. An effective forecasting system must be able to use any of these methods.

An example of a complex forecasting problem that cannot be solved using any one method is forecasting the sales volume of a new product. When conducting marketing research, sales volumes of a new product are estimated during the first years (say three) after release. For this purpose, expert methods, survey methods, and sales on a control market can be used.

Expert assessments formulated by marketing specialists are based on information collected at the preliminary analysis stage and taking into account data on competitors’ sales, the size of the potential market, overall demand, market shares of products of various brands, availability of distribution networks, etc.

Missing information is collected through direct interviews with potential users, traders, suppliers and, if possible, competitors.

Market testing, or control sales, during which real market behavior of buyers is observed, allows you to assess the level of trial and repeat purchases and the volume of potential sales of a new product. You can also conduct test sales at your place of residence or experiments in special laboratory stores.

These methods are usually used together. Using any of the above or some other approach, the marketing service must establish a promising sales volume for a new product, on the basis of which product launch strategies are developed.

It is clear that in a highly variable environment, intuition and imagination can become important tools for perceiving reality, complementing quantitative approaches, which, by definition, rely only on observable factors. On the other hand, it is clear that a purely qualitative method is also subject to significant errors and that intuitions must be tested to the greatest extent possible with the help of available facts and knowledge. Therefore, the two approaches should be used together.

As for forecasting demand, in a methodologically correct formulation it is the art of estimating future demand under the assumption of a certain behavior of buyers under given conditions. Demand forecasting in this case should be carried out in three stages. First, a forecast of the external environment is developed, then a forecast of the development of a given industry, and finally, a forecast of the amount of demand for the goods of a particular company is developed. Such complex, especially analytical models, are extremely difficult to develop and implement, so simpler statistical models are used in practice.

All sales forecasts are based on three types of information derived from research: what people say, what people do, and what people have done. Obtaining the first type of information is based on studying the opinions of consumers and buyers, sales agents and intermediaries. Methods of sociological research and expert methods are used here. Studying what people do involves testing the market. Studying what people have done involves analyzing statistical data about the purchases they have made.

Usually in this case we are talking about forecasting, based on statistical data on sales volume for a specific company or a specific market, the magnitude of the current market demand for a certain product. In the literature, which presents the results of using certain statistical models, very often no distinction is made between different types of demand, and it is directly identified with sales volume.

Forecasting future needs and demands of consumers.

In addition to the ability to anticipate and satisfy those needs and demands of consumers that actually exist, are recognized and perceived by them, the ability to identify probable changes in the structure of consumer preferences, in

integrated marketing is another area of analysis and forecasting of consumer needs and demands. This is a prediction of the so-called unconscious needs of people that may appear in the future, and the existence of which, the possibility of their occurrence, many consumers today still do not know. Such unconscious needs can arise only under the influence of scientific and technical progress, as a result of significant social changes, etc. In this case, we are talking about studying consumer behavior during the formation of a new sales market, about analyzing the reaction of consumers to serious innovations (not necessarily technological, today much more innovations appear in the field of management and business organization), to the offer of fundamentally new types of products and services.

Scientific and technological progress has such a feature that its results, achievements of science and technology, as a rule, are ahead, and by far, of the maturity of socio-economic conditions for transforming innovations into commercially successful types of products and services. This was especially typical for the former USSR, where the technological gap between the defense and civilian industries by the end of the 80s. reached such a level that it was possible to carry out a conversion of military production aimed at the domestic market only by sharply reducing the scientific and technical level of defense enterprises. Most technologies in the field of military production of the former USSR could find their commercial use only with the export orientation of defense factories (it does not matter - civilian or military). The general technological backwardness of the civilian industry of the former USSR (and the current Russian Federation) simply did not allow the use of many innovations from the sphere of the military-industrial complex.

Products turn into consumer goods when the diffusion of innovations, the production of analogues of these products, the borrowing and duplication of their manufacturing technologies become relatively simple, when the differences between the products of different companies are reduced to a minimum.

This does not happen right away. Years or decades can pass between a scientific discovery, a technical invention and a product for the market. The time it takes for an innovation to become a commercially viable product depends on how quickly consumers realize the need for this particular invention in their daily lives, the ability of a new product or technology to satisfy newly emerged or greatly modified desires, needs and demands.

Therefore, the analysis of future consumer needs and demands consists of studying how consumers will react to the appearance of fundamentally new products and technologies on the market. This is a key element in assessing the prospects for the development of the market for any fundamentally new products, the opportunities for turning a new technology or the most advanced scientific achievements into a commercially successful product. It (this element) must be taken into account by those enterprises and firms that seek to base their comparative competitive advantages on constantly being ahead of competitors in terms of innovation, releasing products based on technology that is difficult to reproduce or can be copied.

When a fundamentally new product appears on the market, its manufacturer has to deal with two interrelated processes:

1) diffusion of innovation- dissemination of information outside your organization about the possibility of its practical, commercial use and the benefits that the new product promises its user;

2) consumer acceptance or approval of a new product. This is a kind of process of making a decision by a potential consumer, based on studying available information and his own experience, about whether the innovation is suitable for his needs.

Diffusion of innovations- this is, first of all, an exchange of ideas, the transfer of information about the merits of a product from the manufacturer to the consumer. In the process of diffusion of innovations, it is necessary to classify all possible sources of information (for example, as a result of discussion, exchange of opinions between consumers and resellers) and channels of communication about your product and identify those that can be directly influenced or effectively influenced ( directly or indirectly).

Sources of information about a product new to consumers can be divided into 2 groups:

dependent, having a positive impact on the promotion of your new product on the market (custom articles in newspapers and magazines, recommendations and advice from your dealers, press releases, presentations, etc. - everyone you pay for advertising and promotion of your products).

independent(various types of assessments by independent experts, conclusions of consumer protection societies, professional associations, publications with a reputation as objective analysts, reports by experts at scientific conferences, and finally, the consumers of your products themselves - perhaps the most important source of independent information - etc., in short - everyone who can prove their non-affiliation with your enterprise). The process of disseminating information about your new product on the market represents a direct or indirect impact on both groups of information sources.

The consumer is always more inclined to rely in evaluating a new product on the judgment of an independent source of information rather than on information gleaned from advertising messages or company prospectuses.

Therefore, when diffusion of innovations, it is important to attract the attention of independent sources of information as quickly as possible and obtain their objective assessment of their products (for example, the “Expertise” column of the Izvestia newspaper, the Spros magazine, expert opinions of the Russian Society for the Protection of Consumer Rights, etc. ). Especially in the Russian Federation, you should avoid the services of any government bodies (especially Rosstandart organizations, various ministries) that have a heavily tarnished reputation everywhere (in almost all regions of the Russian Federation). It’s a different matter for the United States or other highly developed countries of the world, where control over one’s own reputation in the state apparatus is very strict and transparent to the media. Their conclusion may not be as significant for the Russian consumer as the opinion of the consumer protection society, for example, but will still be classified as independent. (What stands apart here is the marketing of products and technologies intended for government needs (Ministry of Defense, Ministry of Education, etc. There are different working conditions that exclude the laws of the market. And the conclusion of government agencies is sometimes decisive).

If the results are positive, you can be sure that the process of consumer perception of innovation has begun, and we can talk about the beginning of the emergence of new consumer requests. If the result is negative or even ambiguous, then there is another stage of finalizing the new product or technology so that it can be truly approved by consumers and we can talk about the emergence of demand for it in the market.

At the same time, it is always necessary to maintain a balance between the degree of novelty of the product and its continuity with previous products and technologies of enterprises. If your new product is only a cosmetically updated previously produced model or is openly imitative in nature, repeating the basic engineering or design ideas of your competitors, then it is unlikely that consumers, dealers, or independent sources will pay due attention to it. Conversely, if the product turns out to be too unusual, it is unlikely that consumers will be able to fully appreciate its advantages. So a balance between the degree of novelty and continuity with previously known models on the market is necessary. And it is especially important to maintain this balance in the process of diffusion of innovation, the movement of information about a new product from the manufacturer to the final consumer and back, and to take this into account in everyday practice (Table 1).

Table 1. Options for action during the diffusion of innovations.

But, in addition to the effective organization of information support for the introduction of a new product or technology to the market, it is also necessary to analyze the process of approval and perception of innovation by potential end consumers, to correctly assess the characteristics of their behavior and attitude towards the new product. In general, the process of approval and perception of innovation is presented in the form of a flow diagram (Fig. 2):

Rice. 2 Stages of perception of innovations

Dissemination of information about a new product and the exchange of ideas between manufacturer and consumer is only a necessary condition for the successful promotion of a new product on the market. A sufficient condition is consumer approval of the innovation. Only after the consumer learns about the new product, becomes fully familiar with it, and evaluates the advantages over other, previous products and technologies, will he be able to make a decision regarding approval of the innovation. Options for an enterprise’s actions depending on the main stages of innovation diffusion are shown in Table 3:

Options for action to stimulate consumer acceptance of innovation in the market.

As already noted, information about a new product first comes to the consumer directly from the enterprise and from other sources of information. After the consumer is sufficiently aware of the situation on the market, knows what place a new product or type of service occupies in relation to those already existing on the market (i.e., upon completion of stages 1, 2 and 3, which characterize the process of diffusion of innovations), the the process of consumer perception of a new product, during which his opinion undergoes a number of changes and adjustments, as it were, goes through several successive stages of analysis. At each stage, the consumer uses the same sources of information as in the process of diffusion of innovations, but at the same time he himself makes the final decision, selecting the information that is necessary for this. Naturally, in the process of approval and perception of a new product, the personal qualities of consumers play a much more important role than in the course of the diffusion of innovations. For the manufacturing enterprise, it is important to know not only through what sources information about a new product reaches the consumer, but also the composition of the consumers themselves to whom this information is transmitted, their psychographic and behavioral parameters. After all, ultimately, each individual consumer makes his own conclusion about this or that innovation and makes his own decision. External factors and sources of information only influence the decision-making process, but are not the only circumstances that predetermine the final choice in each specific case. Much depends on the personal qualities, lifestyle, level of education and other individual characteristics of the consumer making the decision.

In addition to the individual characteristics of the consumer, the social environment in which the consumer is located also has a strong influence on the process of his perception of a new product. In many cases, for example, consumers purchase a new product only because it is prestigious from the point of view of the environment in which it operates.

Not all managers need cell phones (and the technical capabilities they provide) as a means of operational management. But the presence of this phone in Russia in the 90s. - an attribute of belonging to a certain social class. An executive without a cell phone will not be received as he would like at a bank when negotiating a loan or at an important business partner when discussing a large contract. But as soon as such a leader finds himself in a hospital bed, for example, he strives to talk as little as possible on his cell phone, making do with a pay phone quite “proletarian-style.” This is not fiction. In the Medical Center building at the Botkin Hospital in Moscow, you can often see queues at a pay phone of people tenderly keeping in their

wards "Motorola" and "Erickson".

Needless to say, a consumer in the market may reject an innovation at any of the stages discussed above. The main idea of the innovation may not be liked by the consumer already at the initial stage (stage 4, Fig. 2) of perception of the new product. In any case, it is important for the manufacturing enterprise to catch the consumer’s reaction to the innovation as quickly as possible in order to make timely adjustments to the technical parameters of the new product.

Integrated marketing requires a completely different approach to the development and implementation of innovations, when it is not the thought of a scientist or engineer that predetermines the direction of search, but the change and development of the system of consumer preferences, the anticipation of new requests and needs of people.

Now the study of the progress of human needs is becoming increasingly important. Everything you do when conducting marketing (from studying the dynamics of consumer demands and preferences to determining the market niche for your company) has one clear and definite, and most importantly, quite measurable quantitative goal - to increase the sales volume of your company during the year, to ensure its rapid height.

In a competitive environment, growth in sales volume, growth in the volume of products sold and the amount of cash flow generated by this growth is the most important indicator, the main criterion for the effectiveness of your business activities.

Thus, when analyzing the consumer, first of all, it is necessary to find answers to the following questions: incentives, sensations, what (requests and preferences) determine the perceptions, motives of the consumer, his behavior in the market of your product or enterprise.

Then you need to determine the possible attitude towards your product on the market and establish a feedback mechanism:

Having received answers to these kinds of questions and systematized the data, you can make a decision about the fate of a particular product, make a conclusion about promising innovations in the market, and also clarify the enterprise’s action plan for organizing the promotion of a product or service.

Drawing up sales forecasts.

The first task of the management of an enterprise or company after studying the market is to determine what, in what period and in what quantities it can sell on the market. The answers to these kinds of questions constitute a sales forecast. A sales forecast is the sales volume (sales) of one or more products for the upcoming period of time (year, quarter, month). Sales forecasts are compiled both in physical terms (pieces, tons, conditional sets) and in cost terms. Let us immediately emphasize that the sales forecast is, first of all, a plan for the shipment of products and services to potential consumers, and it is very different from the plan for the receipt of funds for delivered products. Therefore, if the sales volume for the coming calendar year is 100 thousand rubles, this means that the enterprise has produced and shipped goods and services worth 100 thousand rubles to customers. How much the company will actually receive from these supplies (the whole amount or some part) depends on the terms of settlements with consumers. And this has nothing to do with the sales forecast. The sales forecast should be distinguished from the sales budget, the development of which includes drawing up a cash receipt schedule and the procedure for generating accounts receivable. The sales forecast in value terms in intra-company financial planning and budgeting is usually an item in the budget for income and expenses (profit and loss), and the revenue schedule is taken into account in the cash flow budget.

All planning of production and financial activities is based on sales forecasts. In accordance with sales forecasts, decisions are made on where and in what volumes to invest, what additional production capacity enterprises will need and over what period of time, what new sources of supply should be found, what design developments or technical innovations should be put into production, etc. . Naturally, a sales forecast is still a forecast. The role of random or unaccounted factors and their impact on the financial position of enterprises in various industries in market conditions is quite large. Therefore, the forecast always has a probabilistic nature. But the main thing in drawing up sales forecasts is the initial orientation of production towards the consumer, towards the analysis of his needs, requests and preferences, the desire of production to react as sensitively as possible to any changes in the composition of consumers (demographic, social, professional, etc.), even in their reaction on certain social phenomena or political processes (for example, a heightened perception of the deterioration of the environmental situation in a particular region, the desire to eat foods with a low or, conversely, high content of certain substances, an increased interest in psychics - in one or another to a different extent, this may also affect the demand for certain goods and types of services, and in an implicit way). And one of the tasks of market research is to catch these changes in time, and even better, to anticipate them.

All departments of an enterprise need sales forecasts when it comes to working on the market. Manufacturers and technological services need them to determine the range of products and prepare equipment, fixtures and fittings accordingly. In accordance with sales forecasts, logistics services determine the schedule for the supply of raw materials and supplies, the size of batches of components, etc. Financial services - the amount of working capital, labor costs in the coming period.

A sales forecast is usually prepared in the form of a table, which presents the proposed sales volumes for individual products and services in kind.

expression, price dynamics for each product, sales volumes in value terms both for individual products and for enterprises as a whole.

The company's management will have to make a number of decisions regarding the preparation of a sales forecast (choosing the type of sales forecast, the method of drawing up forecast options and the final sales forecast, identifying sources of information, etc.).

Types of forecasts .

Sales forecasts can be divided into short-term, medium-term and long-term. IN Depending on the industry specifics, the nature of the products, the variety of assortments, and sales regions, various enterprises require certain types of forecasts. But in any case, market research plays a key role in drawing up sales forecasts.

The most common type of sales forecast is forecast for a financial or calendar year. It is used as a basis for planning all needs for finance, products, labor, for drawing up estimates (budgets), and cost limits. Such forecasts are often broken down into semi-annual, quarterly and monthly sub-periods. The duration of the period for which the sales forecast is drawn up is determined by the specifics of the business and can be based on seasonal needs for products or on the duration of the enterprise's production cycle. If it takes 6 months to transform raw materials into finished products, the sales forecast covers a six-month period. Thus, to produce a batch of demi-season coats or men's pure wool suits, or other garments of similar complexity, it takes from 10 to 14 weeks. Accordingly, annual sales forecasts for enterprises in this industry must necessarily have a weekly, monthly and quarterly breakdown, indicating the sales volume for each type of product for each period.

Medium-term forecasts cover a period of 2 to 5 years. They, in essence, extrapolate existing sales trends in a particular market into the future, taking into account the impact of expected changes in the size and composition of the population, economic conditions, and other factors. Such forecasts are used to establish the timing of certain activities (including in the field of marketing itself), which form the sales strategy of an enterprise or company. For example, an enterprise begins to develop a product that is fundamentally new to itself. The market for this type of product has long been divided, and the competition for the new manufacturer, the so-called outsider, is very strong here. If the management of an enterprise believes that, due to its technical level, quality, and price, a new product should be sold, then for success in the new market it is not enough to draw up only an annual forecast. We need to look further.

When assessing the capabilities of an enterprise, not only the sales volume of a new product in absolute terms in the current year, but also the growth rate of sales volumes should be taken into account. When sales of new products increase rapidly at the initial stage, it is quite possible to assume, when drawing up a medium-term forecast, a further increase in sales volumes if we are talking about an outsider company in this market. Drawing up a medium-term forecast will give the management of the enterprise information, without which it is impossible to make the right decision in the field of investment policy. Making significant investments in production, and especially the construction of new production facilities for the production of a new product, is associated with a long payback period for these costs. A medium-term sales forecast will therefore make it possible to assess how effective this investment program is, what return and profit will be generated by investments in increasing the production of a new product after the completion of the construction of the corresponding production facilities, and will answer the question: “Does it even make sense to invest money in this project?”

Long-term forecasts can be developed for periods ranging from 5 to 50 years. The importance of long-term forecasting for an enterprise also largely depends on the nature of its products, technological and commercial specifics. Thus, enterprises that extract raw materials often plan the development of additional resources, new deposits and technological equipment long before they are actually needed

(sometimes for 20-25 years).

The shorter the forecast period, the more accurate the sales forecast. As the forecast period lengthens, the number of variables that must be taken into account increases. It is impossible to unambiguously indicate how, using which method at a particular enterprise it is most advisable to develop a sales forecast. Typically, it may take several years for management to develop the most appropriate formula for successfully making such forecasts for various periods of time. Moreover, the requirements for modern production, production of the information era, are such that a technique that is effective today may cease to be so tomorrow.

Information sources . Drawing up a sales forecast begins with studying the extent to which the activities of a particular enterprise are related to the general economic situation in the country. Then the strength and degree of aggressiveness of possible competitors is assessed. To do this, when drawing up sales forecasts, a preliminary analysis of the market where the company plans to sell its products is always necessary. Here, not only analysis methods play an important role, but also the correct selection of information sources. When analyzing the market, it is necessary to take into account trends in the country’s economy as a whole, the situation in the industry and correlate them with the financial situation of the enterprise, with existing plans for capital investment and production development. If an enterprise plans or already sells a significant part of its products abroad, then when drawing up a sales forecast as a whole, it is also necessary to use information about the market situation in the country to which the products are exported.

In countries with a highly developed market economy and a correspondingly highly developed market infrastructure, there are many sources that can be used to compile sales forecasts.

Based on the study of these sources, specialists can obtain information about the situation in individual industries and regions, about the level and dynamics of consumer and wholesale prices, about changes in conditions on the labor market, about the level of consumer income, and about operations in the field of foreign trade. Other important sources include annual reports to shareholders of competing firms, business surveys, reports of trade organizations, and reports and surveys of consulting firms. Underestimating the severity of the pressure of market competition, the reaction or actions of competitors in the market is the most common mistake when drawing up a sales forecast.

Before you begin to analyze the market of your enterprise using any method, you need to familiarize yourself with the materials of state statistics regarding the situation in this industry. Any information about price dynamics, consumer income (wages), demographic changes, and even the peculiarities of weather and climatic conditions in a given region for the coming season can be useful. Next, you need to start collecting information about possible competitors in the market. Here you need to turn to such sources of information as annual reports of joint-stock companies (which may be competitors), commercial reviews of specialized organizations (research institutes, consulting firms), materials from business periodicals, reports of sales agents, retail enterprises

and wholesale trade, other sales intermediaries on inventory levels

of this or that product, about the reaction of consumers to the delivery of this or that batch of goods.

When drawing up a sales forecast, it is also important that marketing data is linked to those activities at the intra-company level that are directly related to product sales. First of all, the management of the enterprise needs to pay attention to changes in prices for the products it produces in the future (are there opportunities to reduce costs or improve quality, provide the consumer with additional types of services without changing the price of the product), expected changes in distribution channels and forms of sales of products, promotion programs products on the market (advertising, providing additional benefits and privileges to regular consumers, methods of attracting new customers, etc.), introduction of new products into production, opportunities to increase production, attracting first-class trade or sales intermediaries. It is especially important to compare the possibilities of increasing sales, increasing working capital in the form of products shipped but not paid for by consumers, and other forms of sales lending with the financial condition of the enterprise and cash flow.

You should always remember that too rapid an increase in production and sales volumes (by more than 20% per year at constant prices) in isolation from control over the financial position of the enterprise can bring it to the brink of bankruptcy, which will require massive attraction of financing from external sources (mainly short-term loans) to replenish working capital, since cash flows from sales will not be sufficient to finance current costs.

Methods for making forecasts.

When developing a sales forecast, an integrated approach, the simultaneous use of several forecasting methods and comparison of the results obtained are important. Among these methods, the most common are the following:

1. Survey of a group of heads of various services and departments of the company. These managers must first obtain relevant information regarding market analysis. In this case, the sales forecast is something “average” of the views and outlines of the surveyed group of managers. This forecasting method is most suitable for new businesses that do not have enough experience in using other methods. This method is also applicable when there are no detailed calculations about the state of the market, there are no complete statistics on sales trends for certain types of products.

2. A generalization of the assessments of individual sales agents of the company and the heads of its sales departments. In this case, market analysis is supplemented by the opinion of those who directly feel the reaction of consumers and most acutely feel the slightest fluctuations in consumer preferences. The regional aspect is also taken into account here: individual employees or sales managers can provide additional information about the specifics of selling certain products in different regions of the country. Accordingly, the accuracy of estimates with this method is higher than with the first. But organizing such work is associated with large overhead costs (primarily additional costs for remuneration of specialists and analysts, data processing, etc.). And although companies that value their brand (especially leading industrial companies with world-class production or striving to become such) never skimp on them, it often requires the development of special procedures for controlling and budgeting these expenses. Otherwise, the accuracy of the forecast may negatively affect the financial position of the enterprise.

3. Forecasting based on past turnover. IN In this case, sales data for the past year are taken as a basis for predicting likely sales in the future. It is assumed that next year's turnover will exceed or be lower than the current year's turnover by a certain amount (usually a percentage increase to the data for the previous year is taken according to the so-called “achieved” principle):

This forecasting method is suitable for industries and markets with stable economic conditions, a weakly changing range of goods and services, with sluggish scientific and technical progress, where significant fluctuations in trade turnover occur extremely rarely. The most typical example of such an industry is public utilities. Using this method, it is impossible to take into account rapid changes in the nature of commercial activities, in the structure of consumer demand, etc. As for competition, its degree is not taken into account here at all.

4. Analysis of trends and cycles, factors causing changes in sales volume. The sales forecast is based on identifying probabilistic trends and statistically significant factors underlying them using market analysis. Typically, the following main factors are taken into account: long-term growth trends of the company, cyclical fluctuations in business activity, seasonal changes in the company's sales, possible impacts of strikes, technical changes, and the emergence of new competitors in the market. This method is most preferable when making long-term forecasts. Statistical patterns, identified trends and dependencies over the years neutralize the effect of random and minor factors. At the same time, using this method it is difficult to predict for a period of less than 3-5 years, the sample, the array of processed statistical information, as well as the period of manifestation of cyclical fluctuations are too small. This method is most suitable in capital-intensive industries.

5. Correlation analysis, i.e. identification of statistically significant factors influencing the sales of the company's products. It logically complements the previous method, but is based on more complex scientific tools for statistical market analysis. Usually, within the framework of special surveys, the closeness of the correlation between the level of sales of an enterprise and various aspects of economic activity is determined, the influence on sales of which can be logically proven or justified. Thus, the most significant factors are identified and ranked (by degree of influence), depending on which the sales volume may change in the future. It should be noted that this forecasting method necessarily requires serious special and complex, and therefore quite expensive, not always economically justified market research. The most accurate results, however, can be obtained using this method in the most stable industries in terms of economic conditions.

6. Forecasting based on the "market share" of a company's sales, in which turnover is predicted as a certain percentage of the firm's market share in a given industry, i.e. First, sales are forecast for the entire industry, and then a calculation is made of the enterprise’s share in the total sales volume of the entire industry. When using this method it is important Firstly, be confident in the accuracy of the forecast for the entire industry, Secondly, do not take into account non-price competition in it (at the level of new products and services).

7. End use analysis. The forecast here is based on the expected volumes of orders from the main customers of the enterprise (turnover usually exceeds this indicator by a certain predetermined percentage). The application of this method requires conducting special research on the main industries consuming the products of a given enterprise, collecting and processing significant statistical and factual material. This method is preferable in the raw materials and energy sectors, as well as in enterprises that produce components and components.

8. Analysis of the product range, in which sales forecasts for individual types of products are brought together and form the company’s planned turnover. This method is most suitable for highly diversified enterprises, but the accuracy of the overall forecast depends entirely on a detailed survey of the market for each type of product. And this, in turn, requires considerable costs.

The effectiveness of using a particular method depends entirely on the specific conditions and specifics of the enterprise’s economic activity and can only be determined in a system of general market research activities. In a marketing-oriented company, as a rule, several options for sales forecasts are compiled using various methods (usually 3-4 methods are selected.). The resulting estimates are then compared to identify any differences in estimates that may arise. It is usually considered that the forecast is made correctly if the difference between the estimated and actual sales does not exceed 5%. If these discrepancies are significant (the spread of sales forecast indicators using various methods exceeds 10%), then most likely errors were made when drawing up the sales forecast using some method.

In some cases, when drawing up sales forecasts, the so-called test marketing. If the company does not have a well-established market research service and experience in working with information sources, this method may be the most accurate when drawing up sales forecasts. The essence of this method is as follows: an enterprise or firm begins selling a product in a very small market (for example, within one city, district). Even one retail outlet can be taken as the object of analysis if market research is carried out competently and its most typical location is selected (in terms of the target market segment, consumer profile and sales channels). Thus, in a small part of the market, an attempt is made to model everything that is then supposed to be implemented on the scale of the entire sales region. The main components of product promotion on the market (forms of advertising, methods of sales promotion, pricing policy, distribution channel, packaging, etc.) can also be checked here. They are sort of tested on a small group of consumers. After processing the information received on the volumes and growth rates of sales of a new product, the corresponding Sales Forecast Outlines are distributed to the entire region. However, this method is one of the most expensive, and its use requires good preparation of all marketing services in the company.

One of the important elements of drawing up a sales forecast is the development of several forecast options. Typically, three versions of sales forecasts are prepared: most likely, optimistic and pessimistic. As a basis for drawing up optimistic and pessimistic versions of the sales forecast, it is used analysis of influencing factors. Company, Firstly, should identify which factors in the coming period may most seriously affect the level and dynamics of product sales; secondly, assess the degree of their influence (by what percentage each of the identified factors can contribute to an increase or decrease in sales volumes compared to the most likely values). For example, the completion of a major investment project in the region can increase the number of potential consumers by 30%. In this case, the optimistic version of the sales forecast will be 30% higher than the most probable one.

The procedure for drawing up a sales forecast in a marketing-oriented company.

1. Prepare a list of products for which sales forecasts are made.

2. Determine the period for which sales forecasts will be drawn up (from 1 to

3 years), the order of their breakdown into separate sub-periods (by month, quarter) and the format of the final sales forecast.

3. Select natural units of measurement (in tons, pieces, conventional sets, etc.) of sales volumes for each product, determine the price level per unit of each product and their change by sub-period (inflation rate) throughout the entire period in uniform comparable values indicators (rubles, US dollars, etc.).

4. Identify methods for making forecasts (3-4 of the main methods).

5. Establish the sources of information necessary to draw up sales forecasts using the selected methods, determine the procedure for collecting and processing data.

7. Identify factors (no more than 7-8) that may influence the level and dynamics of sales volumes of an enterprise or company for the coming period. Establish the degree of influence of each factor on the sales level according to the most likely options for the sales forecast (if possible for each method).

9. Compare the received options, establish deviations and prepare the final sales forecast in accordance with the chosen format.

Study and assessment of consumer demand for a product.

Structure of the footwear market.

In the first half of 2001, footwear production decreased by 0.9%, including in light industry by 5.4%; in the second half of the year increased by 5% compared to the first half of 2001 and by 2.6% compared to the second half of 2000. Due to this, at the end of the year an overall slight increase of 0.6% was achieved, and the fall in output in light industry decreased up to 3.1%.

This dynamics of shoe production is due to an increase in imports. As already indicated when analyzing the demand for leather, there are no problems with raw materials for the production of shoes. The demand for shoes has also increased - last year they were sold 8% more than in 2000.

True, the share of shadow production in shoe production is very large. According to the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, it is 20% more than the official volume. But shadow production could not grow enough (at least 1.5 times) to satisfy the increased demand.

Organized imports last year almost doubled (by 95.5%) and amounted to almost 14 million pairs, including 7.7 million pairs (an increase of 2.8 times) were imported from countries outside the CIS, and 6.3 million couples (an increase of 44%) - from the CIS countries.

In 2001, 1.4 million pairs of shoes were exported (84% of the export volume in 2000).

202 enterprises produced shoes, including 19 that began production in 2001. However, a significant part of enterprises produced small volumes - more than a quarter of enterprises produced less than 5 thousand pairs in a year, including 18% of enterprises - less than 1 thousand pairs.

Almost two-thirds of enterprises (62%) either reduced output or maintained it. At the same time, at 17% of enterprises the drop was more than 2 times, at 18% of enterprises it was in the range of 25-49%. At the same time, at 18% of enterprises the production growth was more than 25%, including at a third of them - by 51 - 100%, and at another third - more than 2 times.

The main volume of shoes (68%) was produced by 33 enterprises, which produced more than 300 thousand pairs each.

Domestic shoe manufacturers began to squeeze out importers, who before the August crisis occupied up to 90% of the market. To do this, they have already acquired modern equipment and accumulated some experience in working in market conditions.

Many Russian factories can already produce shoes that are not inferior

import. Significant growth in production is hampered by poor technological equipment and a lack of working capital. Most of the components have to be purchased abroad. Therefore, a long period of time passes from the development of a model to the start of its mass production. The inertia of Russian manufacturers in changing models also hinders their competitiveness. However, the further we go, the more domestic shoe factories will be represented on the market.

The largest suppliers of raw materials and tanned leather for Russia are Germany, followed by America, Austria and France. Chevro, shagreen, chevret (lower grades of chevro), laika and opoek come to us from Germany. It is interesting to note that the previously used Austrian white calf leathers are now being replaced by Russian calfskins manufactured in Germany. Kazan goat skins, considered the best in the world, are also little utilized in Russia, but are bought up mainly by German manufacturers, who make high-quality chevro from them, which goes back to Russia in the form of semi-finished and finished products.

Such uncompetitive dominance of foreign semi-finished products and products on the Russian market is thus explained not by the shortcomings of the raw material, but solely by our technical backwardness in leather processing. This shortcoming is what the new industrial enterprise is supposed to eliminate first, which invites specialists from Germany for this purpose.

During a visit in early 1999, organized by the Ministry of Commerce of the Government of India, an agreement was reached on the supply of raw materials and components for St. Petersburg enterprises in the footwear and leather industry, in particular for Skorokhod OJSC, Proletarskaya Pobeda OJSC, and Kozha State Enterprise. All of them will be able to receive a trade loan, which will allow them to work stably and provide new jobs for up to five thousand people.

Despite the crisis in Russia, Hungary does not intend to stop economic

relations with its old partners, and on the contrary, is ready to offer schemes to increase the import of Hungarian products. The reasons for the decrease in imports to Russia were the depreciation of the ruble, distortions in pricing and general economic instability. Therefore, the Hungarian side proposes to return to barter schemes in foreign trade, especially since Hungarian shoes are well known to Russian buyers.

The main volume of footwear imported into Russia comes to Moscow. After the August crisis, the volume of imports decreased tenfold. As in other industries, this allowed Russian enterprises to occupy the vacated niche.

One of the import problems is the illegal import of products. It is no secret that smuggling has reached gigantic proportions.

Dynamics of shoe prices.

The dynamics of changes in average selling prices for shoes is explained by shifts in the range of shoes produced, the season, the level of inflation and other factors. In 2002 There was a decrease in prices for leather shoes imported from foreign countries. This allowed importers to reduce customs duty payments by almost $10 million and VAT by $13 million.

In 2003 prices increased slightly, but remained lower than they were in 2001. (46% for boots with polymer soles, 27% for low shoes. These types of shoes make up 78% of all imported shoes).

In 2004 in three out of five countries, average prices for boots and ankle boots increased, incl. on imports from China by 53%, but remained on average 19% below the 2001 level. in all countries (except Ukraine).

The customs service forced importers to increase prices. Finally, she noticed the price reduction in April 2004. minimum prices were established at which goods from China can be declared. This caused huge imports from this country, supplies doubled.

Sales technology.

Sales is just one of many marketing functions, and often not

the most significant. If the marketer has worked well on such areas of marketing as identifying consumer needs, developing suitable products and setting appropriate prices for them, establishing a system for their distribution and effective promotion, then the goods will certainly sell easily.

For the fastest and most profitable sales, special sales technologies are used. Let's consider the technology of shoe promotion; it includes the following tasks:

1. informing potential consumers about the product - inclusion in industry and general company directories, participation in exhibitions, direct mail, participation in specialized competitions and other events that promote awareness of this product,

3. promotion of information on the Internet - filling and promoting the site, exchanging banners,

4. work with organizations interacting with potential consumers - agreements on mutual exchange of clients, joint promotions,

5. sales promotion - placement of samples, creation of conditions for quality assessment, prize draws, gifts with purchase, formation of the required reputation, etc.

The study of the main forms and methods of sales is aimed at identifying promising means of promoting goods from the manufacturer to the final consumer and organizing their retail sales based on a comprehensive analysis and assessment of the effectiveness of the channels used or planned for use and methods of distribution and sales, including those that are used competitors.

The criteria for the effectiveness of choice in this case are: the speed of product movement, the level of distribution costs and volumes of product sales. It is believed that the effectiveness of the forms and methods of distribution and sales chosen by the company is higher, the shorter the period of time spent on bringing goods from the place of production to the place of sale and on their sale to the final consumer; lower costs for their organization; higher sales volumes and resulting net profit. The main goal is to reduce the total value of sales costs, which largely, if not mainly, depends on the level of commercial work and the sales service. If we consider that for many shoe enterprises the costs of selling and marketing products reach approximately 40% of the total level of production costs, then the importance of this area of marketing research becomes obvious.

In our country there is a misconception that in leading foreign countries the sales of products are carried out by the manufacturing companies themselves. In reality this is not the case. In the overwhelming majority, even the largest companies offer their goods to the market through intermediaries. Each of them strives to form its own distribution channel.

Selling shoes through intermediaries has both positive and negative sides. On the one hand, the use of intermediaries is beneficial, since many manufacturers simply do not have enough resources to carry out direct marketing. Even if a manufacturer can afford to create its own distribution channels, in many cases it will be able to earn more if it allocates money to its core business. If manufacturing provides a profit margin of 20%, but retailing provides only 10%, the firm will naturally not want to engage in retail trade itself. Because of their contacts, experience, specialization, and scope, intermediaries offer the firm more than it could do alone. Another advantage of this distribution system for the manufacturer is the ability to immediately supply large quantities of goods to large wholesale companies. This eliminates the need to create and finance the activities of our own sales channels.

On the other hand, working through intermediaries, the manufacturer to some extent loses control over how and to whom it sells the product, and, as marketing experts note, it does not always receive the necessary and sufficiently effective information from trading companies about the market position and promotion goods. In addition, the longer the distribution path, the higher the costs of selling the product.

Analysis of the population's supply of footwear goods and identification of customer preferences and sentiments.

The demand for shoes is determined by consumer preferences, where the decisive factors are not objective characteristics, but the subjective perception of the properties of shoes - consumer value, consisting of a number of components.

Therefore, it is important to establish by what criteria the buyer evaluates and purchases shoes with a desired combination of properties.

For this purpose, a survey was conducted in the form of a questionnaire. The survey showed that the importance of indicators influencing the choice and purchase of shoes among consumer groups of different age, gender and social status varies.

The survey included 100 respondents, of which 37% were men and 63% were women. Distribution of respondents by age: under 25 years old - 42%, 25-39 years old - 22%, 40-54 years old - 20%, over 55 years old - 16%; by social status: students - 36%, manual workers - 34%, managers - 6%, pensioners - 6%, housewives - 18%.

For women over 40 years old, quality, price, and service are more important than for the age group under 25 years old, for whom the quality of shoes, compliance with fashion, appearance, and trademark are important.

In the group of 25-39 years old there is no particular consistency in opinions. Approximately the same picture is observed when surveying male respondents.

When purchasing, respondents are greatly influenced by advertising on television and radio, and advertising in the press. It should be noted that the level of trust in information obtained from direct communication (acquaintances, colleagues, personal experience, observation in stores), in branded catalogs, which, as a rule, are also studied in stores or obtained from acquaintances, sometimes exceeds the level of use of these sources information. This suggests that these communication channels have a very large reserve and are of particular interest due to the high level of trust in them.

When asked in the survey about their preferred places to buy shoes, respondents -

men answered the following: 45% - prefer to buy shoes at the market, 33

% - in a shoe store, 20% - in a company store, 2% - in other places. Female respondents prefer to shop: 43% - at the market, 40% - in a shoe store, 15% - in a company store, 2% - in a boutique.

To determine consumer behavior when purchasing shoes, you should know the motives for purchasing: by the beginning of the new season, 22% of men and 28% of women make a purchase; when they find a successful model, 19% of men and 30% of women; if there is an urgent need to buy shoes, 43% and 24%, respectively; when there are discounts of 15% and 16%; for other reasons, 1% of men and 2% of women.

Male and female respondents said the following about their preferred shoe materials. The leading position is occupied by genuine leather, with textile materials in second place. Men prefer to choose shoes made of genuine leather – 81%, textile materials – 12%. Women, in turn, prefer shoes made of genuine leather - 72%, textile materials - 22%.

To the question “Which domestic shoe companies do you know?” Respondents found it difficult to answer; they named non-existent companies or gave inaccurate names. This suggests that the consumer has little interest in domestic footwear, and he does not receive enough advertising information about domestic shoe manufacturers.

Conclusion.

Under modern conditions of functioning of a market economy, it is impossible to successfully manage a commercial company without effectively forecasting its activities. The profits received by the enterprise will ultimately depend on how accurate and timely the forecasting is, as well as how it corresponds to the problems posed.

In order for the forecast effect to be as useful as possible, it is necessary

creation at medium and large enterprises of so-called forecasting

departments (for small businesses, the creation of these departments will be unprofitable).

As for the forecasts themselves, they must be realistic, then

is their probability should be high enough and correspond

enterprise resources.

To improve the quality of the forecast, it is necessary to improve the quality

information necessary for its development. This information is first

queue must have such properties as reliability, completeness,

timeliness and accuracy.

Since forecasting is a separate science, it is advisable

(where possible) use multiple forecasting methods when

solving any problem. This will improve the quality of the forecast and allow

identify pitfalls that may go unnoticed when using only one method.

Bibliography.

1. Ross, Scherrer “Structure of industry markets” 1997.

2. Kalinina A.V. “Modern economic analysis and forecasting (micro- and macro-level).” Textbook // A.V. Kalinina et al., Interregional Academy of Personnel Management, 2nd ed.

3. Ryabushkin B.T. "Application of statistical methods in economic analysis and forecasting." – M.: Finance and Statistics, 1987.

4. V.E. Khrutsky, I.V. Korneev “Modern marketing. Handbook on market research." – M.: Finance and Statistics, 2000.

5. F. Kotler, G. Armstrong “Fundamentals of Marketing”, 9th ed. – M: Williams Publishing House, 2005.

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