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Technological structure. Concept, characteristics, impact on economic growth

Technological order-one of the terms of the theory of scientific and technological progress. Means a set of related industries that have a single technical level and develop synchronously. The change in the technological structures that dominate the economy predetermines the uneven course of scientific and technological progress. Leading researchers on this topic are Sergey Glazyev and Carlota Perez.

Some researchers of Kondratiev's long waves paid a lot of attention to the study of the innovation process. Already Joseph Schumpeter noted that the development of innovations is discrete in time. Schumpeter called the periods of time in which there is a surge of innovations "clusters" (bundles), but the term "waves of innovations" is more firmly established. The discreteness of scientific and technological revolutions was also recognized by Simon Kuznets (in a 1940 review of Schumpeter's book.

In 1975, the West German scientist Gerhard Mensch (German) Russian. coined the term "technical mode of production". Mensch interpreted the Kondratieff cycle as the life cycle of a technical mode of production described by a logistic curve. In 1978, Mensch's ideas were repeated by the East German economist Thomas Kuchinsky. In 1970-1980, an adherent of the idea of diffusion of innovations, Englishman Christopher Freeman, formulated the concept of the "techno-economic paradigm", which was subsequently developed by his student Carlota Perez.

The term "technological mode" is used in domestic economic science as an analogue of the concepts of "waves of innovation", "techno-economic paradigm" and "technical mode of production". It was first proposed in 1986 by Soviet economists D. S. Lvov and S. Yu. Glazyev in the article “Theoretical and Applied Aspects of STP Management.

According to the definition of S. Yu. Glazyev, the technological order is a holistic and sustainable formation, within which a closed cycle is carried out, starting with the extraction and obtaining of primary resources and ending with the release of a set of final products corresponding to the type of public consumption. The complex of basic sets of technologically related industries forms the core of the technological order. Technological innovations that determine the formation of the core of the technological order are called the key factor. Industries that intensively use a key factor and play a leading role in the spread of a new technological order are carrier industries.

A simpler definition was given by Yu. V. Yakovets: a technological order is several interrelated and sequentially replacing each other generations of technology that evolutionarily implement a common technological principle. For C. Perez, the techno-economic paradigm is the sphere of production and economic relations with all its inherent phenomena (income distribution, technologies, organizational and managerial methods). At the same time, under key factors, Peres understands the same thing as Glazyev.

Earth civilization in its development has gone through a number of pre-industrial and at least 6 industrial technological modes and now developed countries are in the 5th technological mode and are intensively preparing for the transition to the 6th technological mode, which will provide them with a way out of the economic crisis. Those countries that are late with the transition to the 6th technological order will be stuck in an economic crisis and stagnation. The situation in Russia is very difficult, since we did not move from the 4th technological order to the 5th, in connection with the deindustrialization of the industrial potential of the USSR, i.e. did not move into the 5th post-industrial order and are forced, if we succeed, to jump immediately into the 6th technological order. The task is extremely difficult, if not almost impossible, especially in the absence of an industrial policy of the country's leadership. The well-known thesis of K. Marx, on which more than one generation of Soviet people was brought up, that the productive forces and production relations determine the socio-economic system, can be significantly corrected in the light of the theory of N. D. Kondratiev.

Pre-industrial ways were based on the muscular, manual, horse energy of humans and animals. All the inventions of that time that have come down to our time concerned the strengthening of the muscular strength of man and animals (screw, lever, wheel, gearbox, potter's wheel, furs in the forge, mechanical spinning wheel, hand loom).

The beginning of the industrial periods of technological structures falls on the end of the 18th - beginning of the 19th centuries.

First technological the way is characterized by the use of water energy in the textile industry, water mills, drives of various mechanisms.

The second technological order. The beginning of the 19th - the end of the 19th century - using the energy of steam and coal: a steam engine, a steam engine, a steam locomotive, steamships, steam drives for spinning and weaving machines, steam mills, a steam hammer. There is a gradual liberation of a person from heavy manual labor. A person has more free time.

The third technological order. Late 19th - early 20th century. The use of electrical energy, heavy engineering, electrical and radio engineering industry, radio communications, telegraph, household appliances. Improving the quality of life.

Fourth technological order. Beginning of XX - end of XX century. Use of hydrocarbon energy. Widespread use of internal combustion engines, electric motors, cars, tractors, aircraft, synthetic polymer materials, the beginning of nuclear energy.

Fifth technological order. End of XX - beginning of XXI century. Electronics and microelectronics, nuclear energy, information technology, genetic engineering, the beginning of nano- and biotechnologies, space exploration, satellite communications, video and audio equipment, the Internet, cell phones. Globalization with the rapid movement of products, services, people, capital, ideas.

Sixth technological order. Beginning of the XXI - the middle of the XXI century. It overlaps the 5th technological order, it is called post-industrial. Nano- and biotechnologies, nanoenergy, molecular, cellular and nuclear technologies, nanobiotechnologies, biomimetics, nanobionics, nanotronics and other nanoscale productions; new medicine, household appliances, modes of transport and communications, the use of stem cells, engineering of living tissues and organs, reconstructive surgery and medicine, a significant increase in the life expectancy of humans and animals.

Table. Technological structures

Technological modes (TU)	Key Factors	Technological core
	Textile machines	Textiles, iron smelting; iron processing, water engine, rope
	steam engine	Railways, steamships; coal and machine-tool industry, ferrous metallurgy
	Electric motor, steel industry	Electrical engineering, heavy engineering, steel industry, inorganic chemistry, power lines
	Internal combustion engine, petrochemistry	Automotive, aircraft, rocket, non-ferrous metallurgy, synthetic materials, organic chemistry, oil production and refining
	Microelectronics, gasification	Electronics industry, computers, optical industry, aerospace, telecommunications, robotics, gas industry, software, information services
	Quantum vacuum technologies	Nano-, bio-, information technologies. Purpose: medicine, ecology, improving the quality of life

In my essay, I touched on the third technological order (1880-1930), which was called the “Age of Steel” (Second Industrial Revolution), and I will consider the history of the creation of the escalator in it.

technological structure escalator performance

Technological modes (TS), the economics of nanotechnology and technological roadmaps for nanoproducts (fibers, textiles, clothing) until 2015 and beyond

We invite authors to publish their materials on our website (NNN editors)

Chapter from a book

Introduction

Why three problems are presented in one chapter and in a certain sequence: technological modes, economics of nanotechnologies and technological roadmaps of nanoproducts(fibers, textiles, clothing)?

According to the author, which coincides with the point of view of leading scientists in the field of natural and technical sciences and, most importantly, based on the results of practice, the level of technology, their implementation, the need for them have determined and continue to determine the development of civilization over several millennia. And the economy (well, where without it) is secondary, a derivative of technologies that determine technological structures, the level of productive forces and production relations, and, consequently, the economy. Therefore, we will first consider the role of technological modes in the development of civilizations, then, against this background, the economics of nanotechnologies in a broad sense and the economics of nanotechnologies of fibers, textiles and textile products. And, finally, a roadmap for the production of nanofibers, nanotextiles and products from it, as a derivative of the technological structures of the present and future and the economy of textile nanotechnologies.

Clothing of the future from nanotextiles.
Photo from veritas.blogshare.ru

Technological and other modes of the past, present and future

The chapter and the book as a whole are being written at a time when the world has not yet got out of the global economic crisis, which the world's most eminent economists, including Nobel laureates, could not predict. Not only did they not predict, but they also do not give sensible recommendations on how to get out of this crisis. Where can the leaders of large and small, developed and developing states compete in this. The fact is that they are all economists, lawyers, Chekists - people with a liberal arts education, who come to power and recruit people who are close in the "blood type" mentality to their teams, think linearly, believing that the engine, locomotive, engine of progress is finance, money, the technology of their increment by any means, including global speculation. The production of material values, the technological level of production (in the broad sense), fundamentally new, revolutionary technologies and products produced by them are put into the background. Such a monetarist, very fashionable among economists and politicians view of the development of the world economy, in which, in fact, new revolutionary technologies are the main driving force, does not allow predicting inevitable crises and finding effective ways out of them.

A different view on the development of the world economy, on the causes of emerging and overcoming crises, is held by scientists organically associated with the creation and implementation of new technologies (physicists, chemists, mathematicians, materials scientists, engineers, technologists, designers).

The views of these scholars G.G.Malinetsky, S.Yu.Glazyev, D.S.Lvov), which the author shares, are based on the works of the Soviet scientist N.D. Kondratiev, who, back in the 20s of the last century, put forward the theory of large cycles of development of the world economy, which in turn determine the inevitability, cyclicality of crises and not only economic ones. The economic, modern, recent global crisis is usually explained by too much financial speculation, which led to a disproportionate flow of capital into the financial sector and outflow from the real productive sector of the economy. The result was the curtailment of production (not only in our country, in all developed countries), the reduction of jobs, the income of hired workers and the loss of economic stability. There is an absolute, but not complete, truth about the unjustified tilt towards the financial sector. But this explanation of the crisis underestimates the role of technology, the underutilization of scientific and technological progress, the delay in commercialization and promotion to the real sector of the economy and to the market of new products, innovative technologies, which was the result of business inertia in transferring investments to the development of highly productive breakthrough innovations in the real sector of the economy. competitive products new technological order, now the 6th.

What are technological structures? Technological modes - a complex of mastered revolutionary technologies, innovations, inventions that underlie the quantitative and qualitative leap in the development of the productive forces of society.

The cause of all global economic crises lies in the sphere of changing the technological paradigm of development. Economic crises occur at a time when society, business, politicians are late in realizing the need to abandon (at first partially, and then almost completely) from the current one and the need to turn society to the development of a new technological order.

The crisis is a retribution for inertia in changing the technological and, as a result, economic paradigm.

The latest economic crisis is global, because the world is globalized and integrated. To get out of the crisis, first of all, it is necessary to realize their cyclicity, inevitability and to single out as a limiting stage and a factor in the development of breakthrough, revolutionary technologies.

In connection with such a dominant role of technologies (innovations), they are classified to revolutionary and evolutionary

revolutionary (breakthrough), replacing pioneering technologies, aimed at creating fundamentally new products, goods, services or other material benefits;
evolutionary, improving (continuing) innovations (technologies) aimed at improving already mastered products, goods, services, etc.

Evolutionary innovations and technologies do not completely disappear during the transition to a new technological order, but cease to play a dominant role, giving way to revolutionary ones.

We can observe the coexistence of the revolutionary innovations of the past with the revolutionary innovations of the present. We have not yet given up on any of the technological revolutions of the distant past - the wheel, later printing, that exist today along with aviation and the Internet.

The theory of N.D. Kondratiev is based on the cyclical nature of socio-economic development in short, medium and long wave cycles.

According to the theory of N.D. Kondratiev, a crisis occurs when the troughs of short, medium and long waves coincide, which occur during the existence of our civilization every 40–60 years and fall on the phase of a change in technological patterns.

ND Kondratiev predicted the crisis of the 30s of the last century. the real crisis also follows from the theory of N.D. Kondratiev; we can expect another crisis in the 40-60s of this century. Such a cyclical development and crises adequate to it will apparently occur until the essence of the development of civilization changes and there is a transition to a new transhumanistic civilization, where the biological essence of man changes.

In the meantime, up to the present time, mankind in its development has consistently mastered technological structures, in each of which there have been revolutionary leaps in labor productivity and quality of life in all areas compared to previous technological structures.

technological structures, the level of technology determine the productive forces and production relations, and between them there are direct and reverse links.

Large Periodic Cycles

The beginning of the industrial periods of technological structures falls on the end of the 18th - beginning of the 19th centuries.

First technological order characterized by the use of water energy in the textile industry, water mills, drives of various mechanisms.

Third technological order. Late 19th - early 20th century. The use of electrical energy, heavy engineering, electrical and radio engineering industry, radio communications, telegraph, household appliances. Improving the quality of life.

Fifth technological order. The end of the XX - the beginning of the XXI century. Electronics and microelectronics, nuclear energy, information technology, genetic engineering, the beginning of nano- and biotechnologies, space exploration, satellite communications, video and audio equipment, the Internet, cell phones. Globalization with the rapid movement of products, services, people, capital, ideas.

Sixth technological order. Beginning of the 21st - the middle of the 21st century. It overlaps the 5th technological order, it is called post-industrial. Nano- and biotechnologies, nanoenergy, molecular, cellular and nuclear technologies, nanobiotechnologies, biomimetics, nanobionics, nanotronics and other nanoscale productions; new medicine, household appliances, modes of transport and communications, the use of stem cells, engineering of living tissues and organs, reconstructive surgery and medicine, a significant increase in the life expectancy of humans and animals.

An important characteristic of the change in technological patterns should be noted: the discovery, invention of all innovations begins much earlier than their mass development. Those. their origin occurs in one technological order, and mass use in the next. In other words, there is inertia of the business and political thinking of business and the political elite. Capital is moving into new technological segments of the economy where management is ready to move.

Countries, societies that quickly feel the innovations of the new technological order quickly enter it and become leaders (England - the 2nd technological order, USA, Japan, Korea - the 4th technological order, USA, China, India - the 5th technological order).

Some scientists are already starting to talk about the imminent (in the 21st century) offensive and 7th technological order, for which the center will be a person, as the main object of technology.

Everything that was created in the previous technological order does not disappear in the next one, remaining non-dominant. If business and political leadership do not feel changes in the leading positions of new technologies characteristic of the new technological paradigm and continue to invest in old industries, then a crisis arises or continues. capital, investment, management do not keep pace with innovation. A typical example is the Russian auto industry, in which there are constant investments without innovation. As a result, products remain uncompetitive. Consequently, innovations, revolutionary technologies must be supported in time by capital at all stages: new ideas, new technologies, new products with high added value, promotion of products to the market, making a profit, investing in new ideas, etc. All this can be realized only with healthy (without crime) competition in all areas of human activity (politics, business, science, art, culture, etc.).

Figure 1. in the form of cycles shows the content of the 4th and 5th technological modes and the beginning of the emergence of the 6th mode, in which nano-, bio- and information technologies will shape, change the economy, social and cultural spheres. Indirectly with the change of technological structures, the cycles of development of science are changing.

The following tables show the change in technological patterns, cycles of science development, the sequence of geopolitical crises, extremes of scientific activity and geo-economic cycles.

Figure 1. The natural cycle of development of macrotechnologies according to N.D. Kondratiev

Table. Cycles of science development

years	Cycles	Key principles
	mechanistic natural science	Rationalism. Secularization of science. Scientific and technological revolution
	Evolutionism	Law of energy conservation. The second law of thermodynamics. Origin of Species
	Relativism. Quantum mechanics	Principles of quantum mechanics and the theory of relativity. The structure of DNA. The structure of matter
	computer revolution	Solid state physics. Genetic Engineering. Molecular biology. Universal evolutionism
	Nonlinear Science. Physics of quantum vacuum	Protostructures of reality. Universal cosmological field. quantum biology

Table. Technological structures

Technological modes (TU)	years	Key Factors	Technological core
		Textile machines	Textiles, iron smelting; iron processing, water engine, rope
		steam engine	Railways, steamships; coal and machine-tool industry, ferrous metallurgy
		Electric motor, steel industry	Electrical engineering, heavy engineering, steel industry, inorganic chemistry, power lines
		Internal combustion engine, petrochemistry	Automotive, aircraft, rocket, non-ferrous metallurgy, synthetic materials, organic chemistry, oil production and refining
		Microelectronics, gasification	Electronics industry, computers, optical industry, aerospace, telecommunications, robotics, gas industry, software, information services
		Quantum vacuum technologies	Nano-, bio-, information technologies. Purpose: medicine, ecology, improving the quality of life

Table. Technology cycles and geopolitical crises

Table. Extremes of scientific activity and geo-economic cycles

years	Cycles	Scientific discoveries
1	2	3
	formation of I TU	1755 - spinning machine (White), 1766 - discovery of hydrogen (G. Cavendish), 1774 - discovery of oxygen (J. Priestley), 1784 - steam engine (J. Watt), 1784 - discovery of Coulomb's law (O. Coulomb)
	bifurcation between TR I and TR II	1824 - discovery of the second principle of thermodynamics (S. Carnot), 1824 - theory of electrodynamic phenomena (A. Ampère), 1831 - discovery of electromagnetic induction (M. Faraday), 1835 - telegraph (S. Morse) , 1841-1849 - discovery of the law of conservation of energy (R. Mayer, J. Joule, G. Helmholtz)
	bifurcation between TR II and TR III	1869 - Periodic system of elements (D.I. Mendeleev), 1865-1871 - electromagnetic field theory (D. Maxwell), 1877-1879. - statistical mechanics (L. Boltzmann, D. Maxwell), 1877 - kinetic theory of matter (L. Boltzmann), 1887 - discovery of electromagnetic radiation and photoelectric effect (G. Hertz)
	beginning of III TU - maturation III GC	1895 - discovery of X-rays (V. Roentgen), 1896 - discovery of radioactivity (A. Becquerel), 1898 - discovery of polonium and radium (P. Curie, M. Skladovskaya-Curie), 1899 - the discovery of quanta (M. Planck), 1903 - discovery of the electron (J. Thomson), 1903 - theory of the photoelectric effect (A. Einstein), 1905 - special theory of relativity (A. Einstein), 1910 - planetary model of the atom (E. Rutherford, N.
	bifurcation between III TU and IV TU IV GK	1924 - the concept of wave-particle dualism (L. De Broglie), 1926 - discovery of spin (J. Uhlenbeck, S. Goudsmit), 1926 - W. Pauli prohibition principle, 1926 Apparatus of quantum mechanics (E. Schrödinger, W. Heisenberg), 1927 - the uncertainty principle (V. Heisenberg), 1938 - relativistic quantum theory (P. Dirac), 1932 - discovery of the positron (K. Anderson), 1938 - discovery of uranium fission (O. Gan, F. Strassman)
	bifurcation between IV TU and V TU V GK	nuclear energy, cosmonautics, genetics and molecular biology, semiconductor physics, nonlinear optics, personal computer

Economics of Nanotechnologies and Nanoproducts of Textile and Light Industry

Let us consider the economy of nanotechnologies and nanoproducts as a whole and its segment corresponding to the use of nanotechnologies in the production of fibers, textiles and clothing in accordance with the fact that the leading countries are moving from the 5th technological mode to the 6th technological mode.

Of course, nano-, bio- and information technologies received their initial development at the end of the 20th century, i.e. at the end of the 20th and at the beginning of the 21st centuries and have moved and will develop with even greater practical success in the 6th technological order. This is confirmed by specific irrefutable statistical data and forecasts for the development of these areas until the middle of the 21st century (which will be given below).

Figure 2 shows the potential global market for nano products, which is projected to be 1.1 trillion DS by 2015. As can be seen, nano products such as materials (28%), electronics (28%) and pharmaceuticals (17%) make the largest contribution.

Figure 3 shows the real dynamics and prospects for the share of nanotechnologies in the global economy until 2030. In 2015, nanotechnology and its products will account for ~ 15% of global GDP, while in 2030 it will be 40%.

Figure 4 shows the dynamics of nanotechnology patents registered in the world. From 1900 to 2005, the number of patents grew 30 times. At the same time, ~ 50% of patents are in the USA.

Figure 2.

Figure 3

Figure 4

Figure 5

In this patent market, most of the patents are nanomaterials (38%) and nanoelectronics (~25%) and nanobiotechnology (~13%).

The global distribution structure of companies involved in nanotechnologies and nanoproducts by country is interesting (Figure 5.)

And this figure shows the dominant role of the United States, which is many times inferior to other developed countries.

There are 200 foreign patents registered in Russia and only 30 Russian patents, which means that our domestic market of nanoproducts is potentially legally conquered by imported nanoproducts, as happened with the market for medicines, cars, audio and video equipment, textiles, clothing, etc. In the period 2009–2015 gg. nanotechnologies will develop with an annual increase of 11%, including nanomaterials from 9.027 billion DS to 19.6 billion DS. DS with an annual increase of 14.7%, nanotools from 2.613 billion DS to 6.8 billion DS.

The volume of the market for goods produced using nanotechnology will grow in the period 2010-2013. with an annual increase of 49% and will be in 4 years - 1.6 trillion.DS.

World investment in nanotechnology from 2000 to 2006 increased by ~ 7 times; the US (~1.4 billion DS), Japan (~10 billion DS), the EU (12 billion DS), the rest of the world (12 billion DS) rank first in this indicator.

The place of Russia in the global economy of the nanoindustry

It should be borne in mind that Russia began to build a nanoindustry, develop nanotechnologies with the participation of the state 7-10 years later than the leading countries in this direction (USA, EU, Japan, China, India). With this in mind, you should look at the following statistics:

the share of the Russian Federation in the global technology sector is 0.3%;
the share of the Russian Federation in the world market of nanotechnologies is 0.004%;
By 2008, 30 nanotechnology patents have been registered; 0.2% of the total number of patents in the world;
the most developed in the Russian Federation is the production of instruments for the analysis of nanostructures (modern microscopes);
95% of produced nanomaterials are used not in industry, but for scientific research;
among the produced nanomaterials, the main share is made up of nanopowders (the simplest nanotechnology). Russia produces 0.003% of the world's nanopowders;
nanopowders in the Russian Federation are mainly oxides of metals (titanium, aluminum, zirconium, cerium, nickel, copper), which make up 85% of all nanopowders;
carbon nanotubes in the Russian Federation are produced only in pilot batches;

The real contribution of nanotechnologies to the world economy is illustrated by the following figures - in 2009, 1015 products based on real nanotechnology were produced in the world. Investments in the period 2006–2009 increased by 379%, from 212 nanoproducts to 1015. Nanotextiles (115 products) occupy a significant place (~10%). As for other integral indicators, the leading place belongs to the USA (540 types of nanoproducts ~ 50%), Southeast Asia (240), EU (154). Russia is not mentioned in these, as in other statistics on nanotechnology.

Of the nanoproducts, colloidal nanosilver in various forms (259 products ~22%) occupies a leading position, carbon (including fullerenes) - 82 products, titanium dioxide - 50 products.

Fullerenes are currently produced in the world ~ 500 tons per year, single-walled and multi-walled carbon nanotubes ~ 100 tons per year, silicon nanoparticles - 100,000 tons per year, titanium dioxide nanoparticles ~ 5000 tons per year, zinc dioxide nanoparticles 20 tons per year.

The world economy of textiles and clothing (brief information)

Let's move from the economy of nanotechnologies in the world to the economy of the textile and light industries, starting with the general conjuncture of the production of these industries, including the production of fibers, without which textiles and much more cannot be produced.

The production of natural and chemical fibers, textiles of all types and products from it for traditional and technical purposes is one of the main sectors of the world economy, constantly ranking at least 5th in the pool of the most necessary for humans and for technology (it is also for humans) in terms of gross turnover, ahead of the global automotive industry, pharmaceuticals, tourism and weapons.

This is a general picture (“in oil”), but the structure (geography, assortment), segments of production and consumption of fibers, textiles and products from it has changed significantly:

the production of traditional mass textiles, fibers, clothing has moved to developing countries with cheap labor and mild requirements for the environment and working conditions. China became the world leader (world shoemaker and tailor);
the production of innovative products with high added value remained in developed countries;
the production of fibers used for the production of home, technical, medical and sports textiles has increased significantly and, accordingly, these sectors of the textile economy have taken an important place in the overall assortment;
a significant part of chemical fibers, textiles and clothing is produced using nano-, bio- and information technologies, especially in the case of "smart", interactive, multifunctional textiles, primarily for protective clothing in the broad sense of the word;
The most dynamically developing type of textiles has become non-woven materials produced using various (mechanical, chemical) technologies.

The most developed textile segments and assortment structure for 2008 - Europe (EU): clothing 37%, home textiles 33%, technical textiles 30%.

Technical textiles in the world add ~ 10–15% per year, and nonwovens grow by 30%.

In Germany, technical textiles in the total production of textiles is 45%, in France 30%, in England 12%.

The EU remains one of the world leaders in the production and export of textiles, in 2008 the EU produced textiles worth 203 billion DS, this sector of the economy employs 2.3 million people in 145 thousand companies (average number of employees ~ 16 people) and DS 211 billion in textile production was produced with an investment of DS 5 billion.

The trend towards an increase in the share of chemical fibers and a decrease in the share of natural ones continues: 2007 - chemical fibers 65:, 2006 - 62%. Chemical fiber production is moving from the US and Europe to developing countries.

In 1990, Western Europe and the USA produced 40% of all chemical fibers, and in 2007 only 12%. On the contrary, China in 1990 produced chemical fibers only 8.7%, and in 2007 55.8% of world production, i.e. became a world leader. In general, global textile production is growing: in 2007 textiles were produced for 4000 billion DS, and in 2012 it is planned to produce 5000 billion DS.

Global production of nanotextiles

2010 - "smart" nanotextiles, produced for 1.13 billion DS.

Technical nanotextiles 2007 - 13.6 billion DS, in 2012 it is planned to produce 115 billion DS.

Medical textiles - a significant part is produced using nanotechnology.

World production of medical textiles in 2007 in monetary terms amounted to 8 billion DS. Figure 7 shows the dynamics of growth in the production of medical textiles in the world by years (1995–2010).

Figure 7

A significant place in the total range of textiles is occupied by textiles in products for sports and recreation. In 2008, such textiles accounted for 10% of all textiles produced in the EU, the leader in this sector of the economy is Nike, which produces sports textiles in 2008 for 18.6 billion DS.

The market for clothing with embedded nanoelectronic devices in 2008 was 600 million DS.

Product and technological roadmaps for nano- and related high technologies

Recently, through the efforts of politicians, the phrase has become fashionable "Road maps" (for the first time, American politicians "Road Map" began to be used at the end of the last 20th century). Having adopted the well-known concept (Road Atlas, Road Atlas), politicians, scientists, technologists, economists filled it with a broader meaning, which boils down to the following - the road map should define:

the end point of the movement, i.e. the purpose of the project (state, political, technological, economic, environmental, etc.);
how this ultimate goal will be achieved (means of achievement: ideas, technologies, investments, institutions, etc.);
temporary, fixed points; intermediate, phase-by-phase and time to achieve the final goal;
participants in the campaign to the goal (scientific schools, corporations, firms, investors);
what positive effects (technological, economic, consumer, environmental, etc.) have been achieved and what risks (environmental, social, etc.) may arise and which need to be prevented.

These questions and requirements for roadmaps are of a general nature and apply to forecasts in general and to nanotechnology products.

Of greatest interest is technological product roadmaps, of which there are many in relation to nanotechnology, both at the global level for the world as a whole, and for countries developing nanotechnology; road maps for the leading sectors of the economy (electronics, healthcare, defense, etc.) have been developed and are being developed.

Technological product roadmaps for nano-products of the textile and light industry are being developed abroad, but until they are holistic, they often vary greatly in terms of the set of products and the time they enter the market, and this is due to the fact that conventional and nanofibers, textiles, products from it are used in traditional (clothing, footwear, sports and home textiles) and new areas (technology, medicine, cosmetics, architecture, etc.); in other words, the production of nanotextiles, as well as traditional ones, is an interdisciplinary task, when each field of application sets its own specific requirements and it is extremely difficult to reflect all these features in a roadmap. But we will try to solve this problem to some extent. Roadmaps are not just a plan, a program of some project, they are drawn up for a long period (10–30 years) and take into account the evolution of the development of the main technology (in our case, nanotechnology), but also related to it and necessary for its implementation (in in our case, bio-, info- and other high technologies) areas.

The compilation of roadmaps requires a deep analysis by top-level specialists in various scientific and practical fields (physicists, mathematicians, chemists, materials scientists, psychologists, economists, etc.), since nanotechnology is an interdisciplinary problem. A well-designed roadmap, taking into account the evolution and mutual influence (including synergy) of all related technologies, indicates not only the route, the route for creating a product, but its evolution along the way to the final point in time.

Roadmaps are not a final, frozen product, but a constantly evolving tool that takes into account the constant changes in the possibilities of science, the development of technologies, the growing needs of society and technology.

Roadmaps, as a rule, are the product of collective creativity of a significant group of highly qualified experts or the result of a thorough analysis of the literature, a wide range of sources (scientific articles, patents, reviews, etc.).

The need for roadmaps has now arisen and is growing, as scientific and technological progress is becoming rapid, accelerating, compressing the time lag from an idea to its implementation into a product. But even during this time of the roadmap, new ideas and technologies arise that need to be taken into account in the roadmaps.

And since compiling roadmaps requires investments and considerable ones, it is likely that in the near future investors will demand roadmaps from the requester of investments along with a business plan. It should be noted that, unfortunately, in our country, the compilation of roadmaps has begun quite recently, the leader in this area is the State University Higher School of Economics, which fulfills orders from RosNano in various areas of nanotechnology use.

So far, the textile and light industries have not become the object of attention of any federal structures (the Ministry of Education and Science, the Ministry of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation), as customers of the technological product roadmap for these industries.

Therefore, the author took the liberty (maybe excessive) and the initiative to draw up a technological roadmap for nanoproducts in the textile and light industries, including nanofibers (chemical industry). The proposed roadmap is based on an analysis of several hundred literary sources (over the past 10–15 years), the experience and intuition (as a rule, did not deceive) of the author. The roadmap has been drawn up in relation to the leading countries in the field of nanotechnology (USA, Germany, England, Scandinavian countries, Japan, China, India), but it highlights products and technologies that are of interest for implementation in Russia.

The author expresses a compelling request to those who are interested in this unconditionally subjective picture of the development of nanotechnology in the textile and light industry to send their comments and suggestions that will allow this picture (“oil”) to be brought closer to the realities of today and 10–30 years in the future. Thanks in advance for any criticism.

Initially, a list of keywords was compiled, i.e. a set of nanoproducts most often described in the literature for the following product groups:

protective clothing (in the broad sense against a variety of dangerous activities) used in various fields (civilian, defense, freelance);
fibers;
ordinary everyday clothes;
fashionable textiles;
home textiles;
sports textiles;
textiles in medicine;
textiles in cosmetics;
textiles in technology:
- structural composites;
- geotextile;
- building textiles.

When compiling the roadmap, the following important industry features were taken into account:

- multifunctional textile materials of a new generation are produced according to the classical scheme: production of fibers (natural, chemical) - spinning (yarn) - weaving (knitting, weaving, production of non-woven materials) - chemical technology (bleaching, dyeing, printing, finishing).

There is no getting away from this classical scheme, the individual phases of which in rare cases can be omitted. But this necessary long technological chain for the production of fibers, textiles, clothing, technical products with new properties at different stages is added in a combination (often) of nano-, bio- and information technologies. The most interesting new properties and effects are achieved precisely by combining these three high technologies, which synergistically influence each other and the multifunctionality of the material.

A very important remark follows from this provision. The classical textile technological chain and its industrial implementation (textile factories) are a mandatory production platform on which nano-, bio- and information technologies are mounted. By themselves, they hang in the air and are not an end in themselves, but can only be a seasoning for the main meal. But without these technologies it is impossible to obtain fibers, textiles, clothing with fundamentally new properties.

Recommendations for the production of nanoproducts (fibers, textiles, clothing) should take into account the state and capabilities of domestic textile and light industries, the state of science in this area, the availability of specialists, and not just the need for these products.

It was necessary to decide which products to classify as nanoproducts. This problem is discussed in the world literature, and it arises in economic evaluation and statistics.

As in other industries, all nanoproducts appearing on the market can be divided into two unequal groups:

received by "refined" nanotechnology (“bottom-up”, “top-down”), corresponding to the definition of nanotechnology, as “manipulation of nanoparticles with the formation of a strict ordered structure, with fundamentally new properties, due precisely to the nanosize and nanostructure of the macro-object”. This is how wildlife works “purely” in the synthesis of proteins, carbohydrates and other biological macro-objects.
Man-made such nanotechnology is just beginning to emerge and the pioneers are electronics (transition from micro- to nanoelectronics). There are still no more than 5–10% of such pure nanoproducts.
"nanoproducts"(quotation marks can be removed with certain reservations) obtained using nanoparticles and nanoobjects produced using "pure" nanotechnology (carbon nanotubes, metal oxides, aluminosilicates, nanoemulsions, nanodispersions, nanofoams, etc.).
There are many such products classified as nanofibers, nanotextiles, nanoclothing. They can be called products with the use of nanotechnology elements. At the same time, they acquire useful new and improved properties.

Below are product sets for nanoproducts of the main types of assortment.

Figure 8

(MT) – Medtextile
(TT) - Technical textiles
(ST) - Protective textiles
(DT) – Home textile
(ST) - Sports textiles
(MDT) – Fashion textiles

Initially, the list of key nanoproducts included more than 100 items of various assortment, significance, and advancement (technological, commercial, social). By selection and aggregation by purpose and technology, 50 nanoproducts remained on the list.

PRODUCT SET FOR THE NANOFIBER GROUP

(the number of stars characterizes the importance of the product for the Russian economy)

1****/** - Nanofibers obtained by electrospinning;

2****/** - Ultra-strong nanofibers, composite, filled with nanoparticles for composite structural materials;

3/* Nanofibers and products that ensure the weight distribution of pilots (drivers) and passengers of various modes of transport;

4/ – Conductive fibers and products for replacing copper cable in cars and other modes of transport;

5****/ - Carbon nanofibers (in composites, in medicine, sports equipment);

6/ – Dyable nanofilled polyolefin fibers;

7/** - Genetically modified spider silk;

8/* - Cellulose of microbiological origin;

9***/* - Genetically modified hemp;

PRODUCT SET FOR THE GROUP "PROTECTIVE TEXTILE FROM THE EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT"

1****/** - Textiles and clothing that regulates the temperature and humidity conditions in the underwear spaces;

2/*- Textiles and clothing absorbing, preserving and transforming the energy of the body;

3****/* - Clothing that prevents and protects against harmful external influences (toxic substances, radiation, biological weapons);

4/*** - Flame retardant fabric and clothing;

5/ - Home textiles, clothes that absorb harmful and unpleasant odors;

6****/*** – Antibacterial, antiviral textiles;

7/** Thermal underwear (bed, underwear);

8****/ - Camouflage (from night vision devices) textiles, clothing and shelters for vehicles;

9****/**** - Bulletproof clothing;

10/ – Water and oil repellent textiles;

11***/** - Repellent textiles and clothing that protect against blood-sucking insects.

PRODUCT SET FOR THE GROUP "TECHNICAL TEXTILE"

1/* - Textile with piezoelectric properties;

2/* – Tensile sensor fibers, textiles for flexible displays and nano-clothing;

3/* - Textile for solar panels;

4/* - Geotextile that monitors the state of the soil and strengthens the soil;

5/* - Textiles for nanocomposite (transparent) roofing and other architectural coatings;

6****/ - Water and air filters made of nanofibers and non-woven materials;

PRODUCT SET FOR THE GROUP "MEDICAL AND COSMETIC TEXTILE"

1/** - Water-repellent, antiseptic, antimicrobial textiles and clothing for medical staff and patients;

2/* - Clothing that monitors the state of the body (pulse, pressure, weight);

3/* - Fibers and textiles for artificial muscles, vessels, joints, cartilage, lungs, liver, kidneys, heart valves, suture material, for shape memory implants;

4/ - Therapeutic wound dressings of a new generation (reconstructive surgery) with controlled release of drugs and their targeted delivery to damaged tissue and organs;

5/- Anesthetic, hemostatic textiles for dentistry;

6/- Therapeutic cosmetic masks, as a depot of medicinal and cosmetic preparations;

7/* - Protective textiles for radiology;

8/* – Textile bioplatforms for reconstructive surgery (implants);

9/* - Nanofiber filters for respirators, hemodialysis machines and transfusion devices;

10***/** - Hygienic textiles based on nanofibers, nanobiocides;

11/ - Medical underwear as a depot of drugs;

12**/* - Fibers for bone regeneration based on composites;

PRODUCT SET FOR THE SPORTS TEXTILE GROUP

1/ – Composites based on carbon nanofibers for sports equipment (Formula 1, bobsleigh, boats, skis, spears, etc.);

2/ - Sensory clothing for monitoring the state of the athlete's body during training;

3/ – Suits for swimmers with high hydrodynamic properties;

PRODUCT SET FOR THE GROUP "HOME TEXTILE"

1*/- - Textile panels that change the pattern and color according to the program (color music);

2*/- - Textile mattresses that change ergonomic shape;

3***/- - Antimicrobial bed linen and bath accessories;

ELECTRONIC (TOUCH) TEXTILE

1***/- - Clothing with integrated audio, video equipment, communicating with external receivers and transmitters;

2*/- - Electronic textiles for flexible displays and navigation systems;

PRODUCT SET FOR THE FASHION TEXTILE GROUP

1/ - Textile "chameleon" (thermochromic);

2*/- - Luminous textiles;

3/ – Flavored textiles;

(out of 50 products, 31 are needed, and 18 can be produced if conditions are created for this).

Were evaluated according to the following 18 indicators (see the questionnaire on the example of "Wound dressings"), proposed by the author.

Product name New generation wound dressings with controlled release and targeted drug delivery
Assortment group(s) Medtextile
Fundamental scientific basis Mass transfer of nanoparticles in the body; the mechanism of healing of pathogenic tissues at the cellular and molecular levels
Technology(s) Nano- and biotechnologies
Applications Healing of wounds, burns, bedsores, ulcers, oncological neoplasms of near occurrence (skin, mucous membranes, neck, gynecology, etc.)
Presence in the global market One of the important directions in reconstructive surgery and in combined methods of cancer treatment
Presence on the Russian market Present
Is it produced in Russia produced under the trade name "Coletex"
Can it be produced in Russia (problems) Requires expansion of production in accordance with growing needs
Is it necessary to produce in Russia Yes
Will it be competitive Of course, so far it has no analogues in the world
Do I need to import to Russia Not
Is it possible to produce in cooperation with other countries Yes
Risks (economic, etc.) from production and use Minimum, because targeted drug delivery
Members Manufactured by Coletex LLC, Textilprogress LLC IAR
Members. Research institutes and other research organizations Ministry of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation, Ministry of Social Development of the Russian Federation, Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Medical Sciences and the Russian Academy of Sciences, universities, leading medical institutions of the Russian Federation
The need for specialist training In textile and related universities
"Clean" nanotechnology (NT) or NT elements Elements of Nano- and Biotechnologies

As you can see, the questionnaire offers a lot of indicators that need to be taken into account for compiling a road food map for the world and the Russian Federation. It would be possible to offer more parameters for evaluating each product, which would make it difficult for experts to work with it, and would not provide additional information. Here is a list of the most significant and relevant products, there were 50 of them. Fractions are put in front of each product / , where the numerator is the need for the Russian Federation, and the denominator is the possibility of production, the quantity * characterizes the level of significance of the factor.

Below, the figures show the 6 most significant groups of products according to their purpose and their need for the Russian economy and the possibility of their production in the Russian Federation.

An analysis of numerous sources shows that the following groups of textile nanoproducts are the most significant for Russia (the importance decreases in a row): medical textiles, protective textiles, technical textiles, home textiles, sports textiles, and fashion textiles.

According to the possibilities of producing these products in the Russian Federation, they are ranked in the following descending order: technical textiles, protective textiles, medical textiles, home textiles, sports textiles, and fashion textiles.

Of course, the above estimates are averaged in each group, where within different products can differ significantly in significance and production capabilities. The difference between them (significance and possibility of production) will have to be compensated by imports, which is already happening at the present time, when this difference is huge.

In the questionnaire, for example, the characteristic data of one product from the group of medical textiles "Wound dressings of a new generation" are given. Such a detailed characterization was compiled for all selected nanoproducts of the main assortment groups.

In Figure 1-5, products are graphically arranged in five groups for each in the “need / opportunity” coordinates, which allows you to make a decision on the recommendation of specific products in three areas:

produce;
purchase technology and produce according to it;
buy products.

Drawing. The ratio of needs and opportunities to produce in the Russian Federation for the group "Medical Textiles"

Drawing. The ratio of needs and the ability to produce in the Russian Federation for the group "Protective textiles"

Drawing. The ratio of needs and opportunities to produce in the Russian Federation for the group "Nanofibers"

Drawing. The ratio of needs and opportunities to produce in the Russian Federation for the group "Technical Textiles"

Drawing. The ratio of needs and opportunities to produce in the Russian Federation for the Fashion Textile group

Drawing. The ratio of needs and opportunities to produce in the Russian Federation for the group "Home Textile"

Drawing. The ratio of needs and the ability to produce in the Russian Federation for the group "Electronic (sensory) textiles"

Of course, these recommendations for federal agencies, businesses and individual manufacturers of fibers, textiles and clothing are purely expert assessment, but they are based on a study of a very large array of foreign data (more than 1000 foreign publications over the past 5–10 years by specialists from the USA, Germany, England, Japan, China, India), as well as domestic sources.

In case of interest from interested organizations and personalities for each product, in accordance with the proposed questionnaire, you can present the characteristics of this product, as well as propose technologies for its production that exist in Russia (very few) or they need to be developed or need to be purchased abroad and adapt to our conditions. Or, finally, purchase this product on the world market.

Interested organizations and personalities are absolutely free in their further actions. Any system of strategic planning, including Foresight, cannot offer anything else. Then the initiative of the state, business, scientists, technologists begins.

G.E. Krichevsky
Professor, Doctor of Technical Sciences,
Honored scientist of the Russian Federation

KRICHEVSKY German Evseevich, Professor, Doctor of Technical Sciences, Honored Worker of the Russian Federation, UNESCO expert, Academician of the RIA and MIA, Laureate of the MSR State Prize

Graduated from the Moscow Textile Institute. A.N. Kosygin with a degree in Chemical Technology and Equipment for Finishing Production, in 1961 he defended his Ph.D. From 1956 to 1958 he worked at the Moscow Finishing Factory. Ya.M. Sverdlov as the head of the chemical station. Worked as a UNESCO expert in Burma (1962) and India (1968). From 1980 to 1990 headed the department "Chemical technology of fibrous materials" at MTI. A.N. Kosygin and the Branch Laboratory of the Ministry of Light Industry created at this department. In 1992, he moved to RosZITLP to the position of head. Department of Textile Coloring and Design and manages it to this day. Professor G.E. Krichevsky is also President of the Russian Union of Textile Chemists and Colorists, General Director of NPO Textilprogress RIA, Editor-in-Chief of Textile Chemistry magazine.

For a great contribution to domestic science, Professor G.E. Krichevsky awarded the title of Honored Scientist of the Russian Federation; in 2008 he was awarded the Order of Honor by the Decree of the President of the Russian Federation.

Bulletin of the Stavropol State University

SIXTH TECHNOLOGICAL WAY AND PROSPECTS FOR RUSSIA (BRIEF REVIEW)

V. M. Averbukh

THE SIXTH TECHNOLOGICAL SETUP AND PERSPECTIVES OF RUSSIA (ABSTRACT)

The article describes the fragments of the economy and science condition in Russia, technological setups, long-range forecasts of innovational technologies for 2030. The aim is to enter the 6th technological setup in accordance with the materials of the Russian Academy of Science of2008 .

Key words: economy, export, technological setup, long-range forecast, the forecast period -2030.

The article considers: fragments of the state of the economy and science in Russia; technological structures; long-term forecasts of innovative technologies for 2030; the goal is to enter the sixth technological order, based on the materials of the 2008 session of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

Key words: economy, export, technological structure, long-term forecast, forecasting period 2030.

UDC 681.513.54:681.578.25

The works of the outstanding domestic economist N. D. Kondratiev formulated the concept of cyclicity in the economy. This theory was further developed in the works of academicians D. S. Lvov and S. Yu. Glazyev under the modern name "Technological way". Technological order (wave) - a set of technologies characteristic of a certain level of development of production; in connection with scientific and technological progress, there is a transition from lower ways to higher, progressive ones.

Currently, there are six technological modes (Fig. 1). The world is moving towards the sixth technological mode, is approaching it, is working on it. Russia is today mainly in the third, fourth and early stages of the fifth technological order. The latter include mainly enterprises of the high-tech military-industrial complex.

The third technological order - (1880-1940) is based on the use of electrical energy in industrial production, the development of heavy engineering and the electrical industry based on the use of rolled steel, new discoveries in the field of chemistry. Radio communication, telegraph, automobiles were introduced. There were large firms, cartels, syndicates, trusts. The market was dominated by monopolies. The concentration of banking and financial capital began.

The fourth mode (1930-1990) is based on the further development of energy using oil and oil products, gas, communications, and new synthetic materials. This is the era of mass production of cars, tractors, aircraft, various types of weapons, consumer goods. Computers and software products for them, radars appeared and became widespread. The atom is used for military and then for peaceful purposes. Organized mass production based on conveyor technology. The market is dominated by oligopolistic competition. Transnational and multinational companies appeared, which made direct investments in the markets of various countries.

The fifth order (1985-2035) is based on achievements in the field of microelectronics, computer science, biotechnology, genetic engineering, new types of energy, materials, space exploration, satellite communications, etc. There is a transition from disparate firms to a single network of large

and small companies connected by an electronic network based on the Internet, carrying out close cooperation in the field of technology, product quality control, innovation planning.

The sixth technological order will be characterized by the development of robotics, biotechnologies based on the achievements of molecular biology and genetic engineering, nanotechnology, artificial intelligence systems, global information networks, integrated high-speed transport systems. Within the framework of the sixth technological order, flexible automation of production, space technologies, the production of structural materials with predetermined properties, the nuclear industry, air transportation will be further developed, nuclear energy will grow, natural gas consumption will be supplemented by the expansion of the use of hydrogen as an environmentally friendly energy carrier, the application of renewable energy sources.

Rhythm snny tshyulogashsky * way" and generations of tinish

Figure 1. Technological modes

Thus, our country is faced with the most important and most difficult task - to make the transition to the sixth order (not having fully mastered the previous fifth) and to catch up with the advanced countries in this direction. This stage has already begun and will last 50-60 years. During this time, the world will move further to the seventh or even the eighth technological stage. And we need to take this into account in our long-term forecasts.

The future is laid in the past and present. Below are fragments of the current state of the economy and scientific research in Russia.

The current standard of living of the majority of the population of the Russian Federation is supported by exports, whose share in world GDP is less than 2%. Main export items: gas and oil (70%), primary (not processed) metals (15%), round (not processed) timber (10%). Everything else, including equipment, technology, weapons - less than 5%. The share of Russia in the world markets of high technologies barely reaches 0.2-0.3%.

A breakthrough is possible only through the creation of new science-intensive technologies, primarily for export. But it is known that spending on scientific research in the Russian Federation over the previous 18 years has decreased by more than five times and has approached the level of developing countries. Russia today spends seven times less on science than Japan, and 20 times less than the United States. The number of researchers has more than halved; many now work abroad. The number of domestic publications is somewhat reduced, while, for example, in India and Brazil it is increasing sharply. Thus, in general, in terms of the level of development of high technologies, the country rolled back, according to the most conservative estimates, by 10-15 years ago, and in some areas even by 20.

It is possible to make a breakthrough in the development of the latest, competitive technologies by carrying out long-term forecasting and long-term planning of scientific research and subsequent production of the latest technologies and products.

Figure 2. The share of manufacturers of high-tech products in the world (for work 5)

The President of the Russian Federation D.A. Medvedev gave the impetus to intensify forecasting developments by instructing the RAS in 2008 to urgently develop scientific and technical forecasts for the country's development for the long term - until 2030 in order to bring the country's economy out of that deeply unsatisfactory state of almost the entire situation affairs in the country: science, technology, economics. And most importantly - to enter the international market with high-tech developments.

In 2008, at the general meeting of the Russian Academy of Sciences entitled "Scientific and technical forecast is the most important element of the development strategy of Russia", in his opening speech, the President of the Russian Academy of Sciences Academician Yu. .» .

There are two reasons for activating scientific forecasting.

Academician A. Dynkin named the external cause. According to him, more than 70 countries are engaged in scientific and technical forecasting, including even Malaysia (28 million inhabitants, per capita income of 14 thousand dollars). In these countries, market opportunities for inventions and technologies are being studied (i.e., they are predicting application), and obstacles to moving the development into practice are identified. Our domestic business environment is openly hostile to innovation. Russia has chosen the wrong path - to acquire high technologies abroad, reducing investments in its own science to zero. According to academician A.D. Nekipelov, the internal reason is the need to move away from the fuel and raw material scenario of the country's development at an increasing pace, in connection with which the problem of technological forecasting has come to the fore.

At the session, 9 reports and 8 speeches were made on the subject under consideration. The adopted Decree of the General Meeting of the Russian Academy of Sciences states: “... to consider work in the field of scientific and technological progress as one of the priority areas of activity of the Russian Academy of Sciences; approve the initiative of the Presidium of the Russian Academy of Sciences on the establishment of the Interdepartmental Coordination Council

RAS on socio-economic and scientific-technological forecasting; will apply to the Government of the Russian Federation with a proposal to create a unified system of state forecasting in order to determine on a scientific basis the priorities of the country's development.

The Coordinating Council of the Russian Academy of Sciences for Forecasting was created under the leadership of Vice-President A.D. Nekipelov. The following 15 thematic sections have been formed:

1. Theories, methods and organizations of forecasting. 2. Modeling and information support. 3. Forecasting economic dynamics. 4. Forecasting the development of science, education and innovation. 5. Forecasting the development of nanotechnologies and new materials. 6. Forecasting biology and medical technology. 7. Forecasting information and communication technologies. 8. AIC forecasting. 9. Forecasting social and demographic development. 10. Forecasting nature management and ecology. 11. Forecasting the energy complex. 12. Forecasting engineering, defense industry and transport. 13. Forecasting socio-political processes and institutions. 14. Forecasting spatial development. 15. Forecasting the development of the world economy and international relations.

The Academy created the document "Forecast - 2030". On its basis, President of the Russian Federation D. A. Medvedev announced the main vectors of the country's economic modernization for 20 years: 1) Leadership in the efficiency of production, transportation and use of energy. New types of fuel; 2) Development of nuclear technologies; 3) Improvement of information and global networks. supercomputers; 4) Space research will bring real benefits in all areas of activity of our citizens from travel to agriculture and industry; 5) A significant breakthrough in medical technology, diagnostics and medicines. Naturally - armament and development of agriculture.

Bulletin of the Stavropol State University [¡vdN

The main task is competitiveness and access to the international market in all directions, to increase the efficiency of products in the domestic market. Possibly mixed forecasts.

According to Yu. S. Osipov, “the forecast itself should be developed by the scientific community under the auspices of the state ... it is necessary to create a unified system of state forecasting, with the help of which the authorities could, on a scientific basis, determine the priorities of the country's strategic development.”

In his speech in 2009, D. A. Medvedev said: “The transition of the country to a higher level of civilization is possible. And it will be carried out by non-violent methods. Not coercion, but persuasion. Not by suppression, but by the disclosure of the creative potential of each individual. Not intimidation, but interest. Not by confrontation, but by the convergence of the interests of the individual, society and the state ... intellectual resources, a "smart" economy that creates unique knowledge, the export of the latest technologies and products of innovative activity.

In our opinion, the interaction between long-term forecasting, business, regions, the state and developers (inventors) should be fixed by law, with the definition of the degree and form of participation, responsibility, etc. e. The end result should be the introduction of a product, technology to a foreign market. The need to adopt a legislative framework in the field of innovative development and forecasting was discussed at a meeting of the Interdepartmental Group within the framework of the IV National Congress “Priorities for Economic Development. Modernization and technological development of the Russian economy” (Moscow, October 8, 2009) .

D. A. Medvedev also spoke about political, economic and social tasks. He believes that “the inventor, innovator, scientist, teacher, entrepreneur will become the most respected people in society. Everyone will receive

necessary for fruitful activity. This program includes attracting foreign specialists, and benefits for researchers, and legislative and state support.”

Further, D. A. Medvedev said: “We will increase the efficiency of the social sphere in all areas, paying increased attention to the tasks of material and medical support for veterans and pensioners.” Actually, this is the main goal of long-term forecasting in order to create technologies of the sixth technological order.

Successful implementation of scientific and technical forecasts will make it possible to competently develop and then implement social forecasts for the country's development. After all, this is the main task of the country's development.

According to B. N. Kuzyka, a number of technologies of the sixth order already have a certain reserve. In Russia, as of 2008, there are breakthrough research and development in the field of critical technologies in almost all areas of the sixth technological order (Fig. 3) .

Thus, the research carried out in key areas of the sixth technological mode suggests that we have a chance. It is necessary to focus human, financial and organizational resources precisely on these priorities in order not to waste energy on developing those areas in which other countries have already gone too far relative to our level, and we will have to borrow world achievements.

But in order to successfully fulfill the forecasts and enter the sixth technological order, it is necessary, in our opinion, to fix the procedure for interaction between the Russian Academy of Sciences and business at the government level. RAS scientists determine the vectors (long-term forecasting), and corporations, the business community substantiate the general goal of research in the direction, draw up the terms of reference for the development of research, regulatory and organizational forecasts, up to industrial sales of products indicating

1 technologies for the production of software 1 bioinformation technologies 1 technologies for creating intelligent navigation and control systems 1 technologies for processing, storing, transmitting and protecting information 1 technologies for distributed computing and systems 1 technologies for creating an electronic component base Rational environmental management 1 technologies for monitoring and forecasting the state of the atmosphere and hydrosphere 1 technologies for assessing resources and predicting the state of the lithosphere and biosphere > technologies for reducing the risk and mitigating the consequences of natural and man-made disasters > technologies for the processing and disposal of man-made formations and wastes > technologies for environmentally safe development of deposits and mining

Industry of nanosystems and materials 1 technologies for creating biocompatible materials 1 technologies for creating membranes and catalytic systems 1 technologies for creating and processing polymers and elastomers 1 technologies for creating and processing crystalline materials 1 technologies for creating and processing composite and ceramic materials 1 nanotechnologies and nanomaterials 1 technologies for mechatronics and contemplation of microsystem technology

Energy and energy saving 1 technologies of nuclear energy, nuclear fuel cycle, safe management of radioactive waste and spent nuclear fuel > hydrogen energy technologies 1 technologies for creating energy-saving systems for the transportation, distribution and consumption of heat and electricity > technologies of new and renewable energy sources energy from organic raw materials

Living systems 1 bioengineering technologies 1 biocatalytic, biosynthetic and biosensor technologies 1 biomedical and veterinary technologies for life support and protection of humans and animals 1 genomic and post-genomic technologies for drug development 1 technologies for environmentally friendly resource-saving production and processing of agricultural raw materials and food 1 cellular technologies

Transportation and aerospace technologies > technologies for creating new generations of rocket and space, aviation and marine equipment > technologies for creating and controlling new types of transport systems 1 technologies for creating energy-efficient engines and propulsion systems for transport systems

The level of Russian developments corresponds to the world, and in some areas Russia is in the lead

Russian developments as a whole correspond to the world level * Russian developments as a whole are inferior to the world level and only in certain areas the level is comparable

Figure 3. The status of basic research and development in Russia in 2008 (based on work 5)

Bulletin of the Stavropol State University [¡vdN

possible deadlines for the implementation of individual stages. Accordingly, in their financial plans, firms should allocate up to 3-5% of the budget for forecasting, the development of scientific research, possibly together with the state. And all this work should be under the control of the forecasting sections of the Russian Academy of Sciences and the Government of Russia. This is not business enforcement, but rules, such as the Rules of the Road, binding on all participants. And for violation (non-allocation of appropriate funds, failure to meet deadlines, etc.), penalties should be applied. But there should also be incentives.

It should not be forgotten that such a large-scale forecasting - from the vectors of the country's development to specific technologies and their parameters, requires an effective organization of information support for forecasting activities.

Moreover, when carrying out scientific and technical forecasting, one of the basic principles of forecasting should be observed - the relationship of scientific, technical and social forecasts.

However, in order to avoid distortions - forgetting the internal development of elements 4 and 5 of technological modes, it is necessary to

make forecasts in these areas as well.

Society, especially business society, must realize that without scientific forecasting, the further development of our country is simply not possible. And for successful forecasting, it is necessary to train forecasters. Since forecasting is also supposed to be carried out for the development of regions, federal universities simply have to create departments of futurology and train forecasters in technical, sociological and other areas, depending on the economy of the region. And in the management structure of regions, cities, there should be prognostic units. The issues of scientific forecasting in our country should be addressed at the state level by our entire community.

In conclusion, it should be noted that today's schoolchildren will have to predict, create new technologies, use them in the sixth technological mode, therefore, without reorienting the entire education system to a new level of technological life in everyday life, without a general rise in the cultural level of all strata of our society, technological progress will not will give the expected effect.

LITERATURE

1. Averbukh V. M. An integrated approach to forecasting in a research and production association // All-Union scientific and practical conference “Efficiency of associations and improvement of self-financing. Plenary session of the section Problems of improving cost accounting in associations”: abstracts. - L., 1979. - S. 138-139.

2. Actual problems of innovative development. Selection of innovation priorities: Proceedings of the meeting of the Interdepartmental Working Group within the framework of the IV National Congress "Priorities for Economic Development, Modernization and Technological Development of the Russian Economy" (Moscow, October 8, 2009): inform. bulletin. Issue. 11. - M., 2010. - S. 7-21.

3. Glazyev S. Yu. Choice of the future. - M.: Algorithm, 2005.

4. N. D. Kondratiev, Large cycles of conjuncture and the theory of foresight: selected works. - M.: Economics, 2002.

5. Kuzyk B. N. Innovative development of Russia: scenario approach. (Posted by kig at Jan 5, 2910 - 13:56).

6. Lvov D.S. Effectiveness of management of technical development. M.: Economics, 1990.

7. Scientific session of the General Meeting of the Russian Academy of Sciences "Scientific and technological forecast - the most important element of the development strategy of Russia" // Bulletin of the Russian Academy of Sciences. - 2009. - T. 79. - No. 3. - S. 195-261

8. Forecast of scientific and technological development of the Russian Federation for the long term

perspective (until 2030) // Conceptual approaches, directions, forecast estimates and implementation conditions. - M.: RAN, 2008.

Averbukh Viktor Mikhailovich, GOU VPO

"Stavropol State University", Doctor of Technical Sciences, Senior Researcher

employee; head of the sector of scientific and technical information of the research department of SSU. Sphere of scientific interests - scientific and technical forecasting, scientific and technical information, history of science. aver@stavsu.ru

So what is the technological order in general from the point of view of the organizers of the forum? What exactly will be the sixth technological order? Further, all definitions are given according to scheme, prepared by the forum organizers"Technoprom-2013" .

Technological order - this is a set of related industries that have a single technical level and develop synchronously. The change in the technological patterns that dominate the economy is determined not only by the course of scientific and technological progress, but also by the inertia of society's thinking: new technologies appear much earlier than their mass development.

First technological order

The main resource is water energy.
The main industry is the textile industry.
The key factor is textile machines.
Achieving a way of life - the mechanization of factory production.

The second technological order

The main resource is steam energy, coal.
The main industry is transport, ferrous metallurgy.
The key factor is the steam engine, steam drives of machine tools.
Achieving a way of life - the growth of the scale of production, the development of transport.
The humanitarian advantage is the gradual liberation of man from heavy manual labor.

Third technological order

The main resource is electrical energy.
The main industry is heavy engineering, the electrical industry.
The key factor is the electric motor.
Achieving a way of life - the concentration of banking and financial capital; the advent of radio communications, telegraph; production standardization.
Humanitarian benefit - improved quality of life.

Fourth technological order

The main resource is the energy of hydrocarbons, the beginning of nuclear energy.
The main industries are automotive, non-ferrous metallurgy, oil refining, synthetic polymer materials.
The key factor is the internal combustion engine, petrochemistry.
Achieving a way of life - mass and serial production.
The humanitarian advantage is the development of communications, transnational relations, the growth in the production of consumer goods.

Fifth technological order

The main resource is nuclear energy.
The main industries are electronics and microelectronics, information technology, genetic engineering, software, telecommunications, space exploration.

Achieving a way of life - individualization of production and consumption.
Humanitarian advantage - globalization, speed of communication and movement.

Sixth technological order

(all components of the new technological order are in the nature of a forecast)

The main industries are nano- and biotechnologies, nanoenergy, molecular, cellular and nuclear technologies, nanobiotechnologies, biomimetics, nanobionics, nanotronics, as well as other nanoscale industries; new medicine, household appliances, modes of transport and communications; use of stem cells, engineering of living tissues and organs, reconstructive surgery and medicine.

The key factor is microelectronic components.

Achieving a way of life - individualization of production and consumption, a sharp decrease in the energy and material intensity of production, the design of materials and organisms with predetermined properties.

The humanitarian advantage is a significant increase in the life expectancy of humans and animals.

In 2010, the share of the productive forces of the fifth technological mode in the most developed countries was approximately 60 percent, the fourth - 20 percent, and the sixth - about 5 percent. According to the latest calculations of scientists, the sixth technological order in these countries will actually come in 2014-2018.

I would like to add that I also found the information provided by the compilers of the diagram in the lower right corner of the diagram to be very interesting - the relative number of forum participants from different foreign states. It is surprising that such small countries (though very rich and technologically advanced) as Sweden, Finland and Belgium were among the leaders in terms of the number of their delegates.

The fusion of applied science and technological audit, modern competence centers and Soviet experience will make it possible to shift industrial policy one and a half cycles forward. Alexei Petrov, executive director of Finval Engineering, and Alexei Ivanin, commercial director of the company, told Military Industrial Courier about what is missing for a breakthrough.

The 90s greatly battered the domestic instrument and machine tool industry, and other advanced industries. The civil aviation industry ekes out a miserable existence.

But the engineering industry of the military-industrial complex remains the backbone of the Russian economy. Its competitiveness, especially its growth rates, are due exclusively to high-tech and knowledge-intensive sectors.

- The corporation was given the task of setting up the production of a large-scale facility, for example, resuming the production of the Tu-160. The first actions of her leadership?

– When it comes to setting up a production facility for a new product, the corporation's leaders are primarily faced with the task of competently organizing pre-project work, conducting technological preparation, and choosing a head production. It is clear that today none of the existing enterprises can produce such an aircraft. It is necessary to establish large-scale cooperation between factories. Considerable time has passed since the release of the last such machine, much has changed - enterprises participating in the production chain have closed or ended up abroad. Some of the technologies are most likely outdated, others are lost. First: you need to create a digital - 3D model of the product. A set of scanned drawings in a computer is the last century. We are talking specifically about a three-dimensional digital model in the collection. So that you can see the requirements for any of the parts and the manufacturing technology of each. Second: to organize the study of the implementation of the task.

The creation of such a production is a long process, it can take several years. An important issue is the choice of technology, the selection of equipment, and its manufacture. It often happens that standard machines do not fit, you need to order them, develop and manufacture tooling, which in itself is a long and expensive process. This will be followed by the supply of equipment, commissioning, testing of technology on a specific product and after that delivery in accordance with all the parameters that were previously set. In addition, it is necessary to carefully plan industrial cooperation.

Where is your place in this chain?

– When the production program appears, then our work begins. It is impossible to develop technology for unknown purposes and to what extent. When we solve a problem, we necessarily take into account the possibilities of cooperation between enterprises, the presence of competence centers in the holding or plans for their creation. In accordance with this, we develop a production technology, select equipment, tooling and tools, and develop requirements for personnel.

To carry out such a large-scale project, you need a structure that can guarantee the execution of the contract, when the contractor takes care of everything: technological and construction design, selection and purchase of equipment, tooling and tools, organization of the construction of the facility and control over its progress, installation and commissioning of equipment, etc. e. Any textbook on project management describes the advantages of EPCM contracts (EPCM from English engineering - engineering, procurement - supply, construction - construction, management - management): cost reduction, predictability of achieving the desired result, flexibility in the distribution of risks and responsibilities, individual approach to the customer.

- This is in the textbook, but how in our reality?

– The system is widely developed in the West and a little in our country – in industries that are largely integrated into the world: in energy and oil and gas production.

As for the enterprises of the defense complex and engineering in general, the problem is that in most cases the customer simply does not have the opportunity to conclude such a contract, since he works in financial and managerial regulations that do not allow him to fully invest in the project. Hence the problems. We also cannot be responsible for the entire project. The customer has an organization that is building the facility, but is not responsible for the supply of equipment, for training personnel and building an information corporate system.

- It turns out that there is no customer in the state?

- Not in the state, but in engineering. It exists in the state. When it comes to building a nuclear power plant, no one suggests building it in parts. The nuclear power plant is delivered on a turnkey basis.

- But nuclear power plants are also mechanical engineering ...

“You can swell one hundred billion, make the plant ideal, but it will be loaded by three percent, because it is included in cooperation with enterprises that have not been modernized in any way”

- This is an energy facility, from which an order for turbines and other equipment comes, that is, mechanical engineering acts as a supplier. But the project is managed by the energy company or its general contractor, who is responsible for ensuring that, according to the budget and deadlines, the facility is created and produces the required number of megawatts. Here the EPCM contract scheme works great, it needs to be extended to mechanical engineering. And this has been talked about for a long time.

The state should act as a competent customer. Not to find out from the heads of companies that carry out defense orders how much money is invested in their factories, but to ask how much it will cost to produce a tank. An engineering company will develop a production technology, select equipment and give its approximate cost. We add to it the costs of designing, modernizing production, scheduled repairs, and other related costs, then we divide the amount received by the number of orders and get the price of one. In fact, this is not the same as the cost of a tank at a given enterprise.

The challenge is to ensure the life cycle of the product. In the life cycle of a product, production is just a part - the most important, but no more. And design development, R&D, modernization of operated products and further disposal are financed at best in parts.

Initially, engineers develop the design of the product, then an engineering company or a technological institute starts working, which develop technical and technological solutions for future production. Based on this information, design estimates are formed. After that, the data is provided to the construction company. We have it the other way around now. Funds are allocated for the construction part. This is the main difference. It is impossible to start building a plant until an engineering company or a technological institute creates a project, receives money for it, and passes the state examination together with the customer.

But organizational and technological design, which plays a crucial role, is not given sufficient attention at this stage. What is the result? A magnificent building was built, the most modern equipment was purchased, but there was not enough money and attention for a thorough organizational and technological design.

Why is it important? Any enterprise is tied to the territory where it is located. For example, if there are enough skilled workers in the region, in order to minimize the cost of purchasing equipment, we can make a project with the maximum possible use of universal machines. But there may be a completely different picture, and then you have to use unmanned technologies, because there is simply no one to supply universal equipment.

These and many other issues must be taken into account at the stage of pre-project work or, in modern terms, when conducting a technological audit of the project.

– How to achieve this?

- The most important thing is to include pre-project procedures in the regulations. This will create a quality plant. Here we can recall the Soviet experience - in the then practice of the concept of "technological audit" was not, but they operated with another - "technological design", which was an obligatory phase for any industrial enterprise. And this was financed in a regulated manner based on the volume of total capital investments in the project - exactly what is not there now.

Is it possible to return to this?

- You need to come back! If we are talking about the modernization of production, then it must necessarily be tied to the product that is supposed to be released. Otherwise, we can spend a lot of money, buy good machines and at the same time get a zero result. Because it may turn out that the required product cannot be made on these machines, or it is required to develop expensive equipment, and many circumstances not previously taken into account may also open up. As a result, either the product will not be produced at all, or its cost will become prohibitive. Therefore, we are constantly talking about the need for a clear regulation for carrying out work on technological audit and design. And then a high-quality project will be made with a normal feasibility study, which takes into account every step and all the costs of equipment, personnel, equipment, and so on.

We emphasize once again: we need a systemic order from society and the state. The country is participating in global competition, the world is moving from the fifth technological order, from paperless technology to the sixth - to deserted technology. Accordingly, those who do this first will be the undisputed leaders. And today more than half of our economy is still in the fourth dimension.

- And enterprises are run by people who come from the paradigm of the fourth order ...

- Exactly. We need to shift industrial policy one and a half cycles forward.

Who in the country can do this?

- Previously, the program of industrial policy was and was implemented in each sectoral ministry. Now there is only the Ministry of Industry and Trade, which cannot cover everything, and a certain vacuum appears. So it's up to business. Understanding is required from every corporation: it does not manage thousands of factories, but the production of specific products. It is from this that one should proceed, because the market should be offered a competitive product, and not information about how many factories and machine tools a manufacturer has.

- To this he can answer that he makes tanks that the Ministry of Defense requires, that’s why the demand ...

- So the fact of the matter is that they are not responsible for the tank, but for factories that do not understand what and why they produce. And at arbitrary cost.

But this is one side. Before talking about modernization at any enterprise, one must first understand what product it is included in the production chain, in the interests of which product it is worth introducing innovations and how this will affect the enterprises included in the cooperation. You can swell one hundred billion, make the plant ideally modern, but it will be loaded by three percent, because it is included in cooperation with enterprises that have not been modernized in any way ...

Investments must be considered in a complex, so we are now talking about what corporate leaders need. There are many problems at the factories, but at the corporate level there are more of them exactly because there are many enterprises, they are different, their leaders hold different views and have different life experiences, the teams are well-established and also differ significantly in age and qualifications. And they need to be managed in the same way. And we propose to do this on the basis of the thesis that it is necessary to manage the production of a product, and not a specific plant. There is a director there, let him manage it.

The whole question is in the ability to correctly set tasks, ask the right questions to enterprises that are part of the corporation, and receive the right answers in a single format. And we are talking about technology audit again. What's the point if the audit at a hundred factories of one corporation is carried out by different organizations according to their own methods and each provides the results in its own form? On such a shaky basis, it is basically impossible to draw any conclusions, because there is no link to the final result.

Do you need a regulation?

- Exactly. Which clearly states: what is a technology audit, who has the right to perform it. And every auditor must be certified. Today, technological design can be carried out by anyone, for this even licenses are not needed and technical education is not necessary.

By the way, we can create any kind of regulatory documents, but the money for technological design or technological audit must be included in the budgets of corporations. For engineering, it is necessary to allocate money specifically to enterprises so that they can order engineering services on the side.

This will serve as the best incentive for the development of engineering companies. Now there is no corresponding line in the budget, and even if the head of the corporation wants to order such a service, he does not have the opportunity.

“And he starts looking for reserves?”

- He, for example, asks to carry out the design for free, including the cost of services, say, in the equipment that will be purchased as a result of the project. This distorts the market, so you can not do it. In construction, there are clear rules for paying for design work, and exactly the same rules should be adopted when forming the cost of pre-design work. You need a clear link to the estimated cost of the object, then you will understand why such money is requested.

So far, our enterprises are not ready to pay for this - they simply do not understand what they will really get. In addition, many managers do not know what engineering is, or think that it is only about the supply of equipment, and they believe that the Finval company is engaged only in this.

– How to manage modernization?

- The main point: when a corporation is requested by an enterprise for financial resources, a concept of upcoming changes should be drawn up. That is, it is necessary to convey to the corporation what kind of transformations are necessary, how they are planned to be carried out and for what. Modernization should begin primarily with the product, that is, with what the company plans to produce and in what volume. We have a successful track record of creating and defending such concepts.

Is this purely a financial document?

– Justification of investments cannot be made only on the basis of financial calculations. The concept should be based on technological development. It should go from the product, show that there is a clear and long-term demand in the market - only if such information is available, the document will be of interest to the investor.

– Creation of competence centers is now in vogue. In your opinion, do they really contribute to the modernization of the machine-building complex?

– We passionately advocate the creation of centers of excellence. The modern economy implies ensuring competition through the effective interaction of such centers with serial enterprises. But there are also reservations.

- For example, there is a cluster of enterprises that produce approximately the same products and are part of the same structure. The corporation receives a request for funding from them, and it turns out that they need to buy, say, one hundred identical machines, each costing two hundred million rubles. Here the question arises: is it really necessary to give each plant the requested funding, or is it worth creating a single center where there will be not one hundred, but ten such machines, and it will provide all enterprises with products of a specific range?

- The idea is sound.

– Ideally, such a center also works effectively with orders, fulfills them efficiently and on time, and most importantly, it has up-to-date technological expertise, that is, it monitors market trends and replaces outdated technological processes with new ones in time. For example, if a center of competence is being created in the field of foundry production, then it must be an expert in this area. It is necessary to connect a scientific base to such a center of competence, the activities of which are aimed at advanced research and development that can outperform competitors. But it is in a narrow specialization, as mentioned above, in casting. This gives groundwork for export. Moreover, it is important to develop both military and peaceful topics. If this is casting, the enterprise can produce both guns and frying pans. You just need to add applied work in the field of science and you can enter world markets.

Are you talking about the realities of our day?

- It should be so, but today there is no single clear understanding in state structures that there is a center of competence. They still believe that this is just a set of machines that produce standard operations, standard products, and for the enterprise this is another opportunity to receive money from the state.

But the problem is that technologies are changing rapidly, and we advocate that competence centers not only have a set of machines, but also applied science without fail.

We advocate that competence centers have such a composition of equipment and scientific activities that will really turn our country into a world leader in the field of production. With the introduction of modern technologies in competence centers, we will create self-sustaining and innovative products. Yes, at the initial stage it will be products for our factories, and in the future, the participation of competence centers in international exhibitions will raise us to a completely new level - a world leader in the field of production. Competence centers need to take part in the leading specialized exhibitions as an individual manufacturer, where we can demonstrate our advanced developments and scientific base.

All activities should be directed to the future. Now the ratio of production, for example, is 90 percent - military products, 10 percent - civilian. But over time, this proportion, for obvious reasons, shifts towards the civilian one. The number of civilian orders will increase, including by reducing the cost of production in this particular industry. Competence centers should be leaders not only within the corporation, but across Russia. We will be able to master new types of products, as well as fulfill export orders. We must have the best enterprises in the industry, with impeccable quality of products that meet world standards. And we must be one step ahead of the competition.

In the meantime, everything is turning into “let's save money, we won’t buy machines for everyone, we’ll take ten times less, put it in one place.” This is good, but clearly not enough. The lack of science and incentives for development will lead to the fact that in a couple of years a “garage with nuts” will appear instead of a center of competence. Meanwhile, the corporation that built the center, in addition to saving on equipment, will also want to recoup the costs. And they can only be beaten off in the foreign market, where the center will pick up third-party orders.

- Is it bad to recoup the costs?

- It may happen that the factories of the corporation, all at once, needed some kind of unfortunate nut. And in the center there is a millionth order, because of one nut they will not readjust the machines there and will be right in their own way. What is the result? The problems of factories have worsened - before they had their own equipment, they made this nut if necessary, now there is no such possibility. But factories do not produce nuts, but a certain product. And it may turn out that it will not be finally handed over because of one unfortunate nut. And from here already there is a problem with the delivery of the state defense order. At 99.99 percent, everything is ready, but the nut is missing. And why? Because they said - there is nothing to do at the factory for this machine, the nut is too expensive. Because they consider its cost compared to mass production. But it must be considered in comparison with the cost price in the general product and losses due to the fact that the delivery is delayed for months, as they are waiting for the nut.

- Who decides this issue?

– Managers who make decisions on the creation of competence centers. To avoid such absurd situations, among them there must be technical specialists who are able to foresee and voice these risks. Such decisions cannot be made only on the basis of economic expediency and on the basis of financial calculations.

- In this case, does the country have a regulation for the creation of centers of competence?

- Not. Each corporation independently determines what exactly it means by a competence center and what tasks it intends to solve with its help.

– Are there such centers that fully correspond to their name?

- There is. For example, in our company there is a Center for Engineering Technologies. There, not only the equipment that we supply is presented, but also processing technologies are being developed, machine operators and technologists are being trained. Having experience and the necessary expertise, we can reasonably say on which equipment it is better to manufacture a product and how to do it optimally. Not cheap or expensive, but only in this way - optimally. The price matters, but the optimum is made up of different things: serialization, risks, the possibility of expanding production, established cooperation, etc. It is one thing to spank nuts in millions of copies, and quite another - a million different nuts. But it is impossible to consider all goals primary.

- What do you think is the way out?

Competence centers need to be created. They will contribute to building technological competencies, the emergence of new breakthrough technologies, and reducing production costs. This, in turn, will increase its competitiveness. It is necessary to realize that in a few years the rearmament of the army and navy of the Russian Federation will be completed and there will be an urgent need for the production of competitive civilian products. Today we need to think about the production of civilian and dual-use products so that the funds spent on the modernization of military-industrial complex enterprises work for the development of the entire Russian economy, increasing the export of high-tech products. By the way, the creation of competence centers is not necessarily the prerogative of state structures. For example, in Germany, in the machine tool industry, which brings in billions of dollars in income and provides the country with a leading position in the world market, 99.5 percent of engineering and manufacturing companies are representatives of small and medium-sized businesses - they play the role of centers of competence there and very successfully.

- And we have?

- It's a bit more complicated for us. The creation of such centers requires large financial costs and the involvement of serious specialists. Few small and medium enterprises are ready for such investments. And the market for engineering services in our mechanical engineering has not yet formed. As for state-owned enterprises, now many corporations are beginning to be interested in creating competence centers, but when organizing them, it is necessary to clearly formulate goals. Technology development should be handled by technologists, not lawyers or financiers. These centers will not always be able to be self-sustaining, but one should clearly understand what problems they will help solve and what kind of results corporate management wants to get from their creation. And besides, it is necessary to understand that the design of such a center is not done instantly. This may take from three months to six months, depending on the volume of the production program and the complexity of cooperation. Because competently designing cooperation is not at all the same as building a building and supplying ten machines. It is necessary to clearly calculate how to ensure that each of the corporation's plants receives what it needs at a particular moment, and the end customer receives finished products on time with the required quality. We have successful experience in designing such centers.

You should pay attention to the fact that in the West tenders are announced for the finished product, we have a different situation - tenders are held for the supply of equipment. Competence centers have equipment, a scientific base, and relevant competencies. Together, having all these parameters, our competence centers will be able to participate in global tenders for the supply of specific products.

- Who else can solve such problems except you?

- Probably, someone can, if puzzled. But for the most part, no one has done it yet. Too complicated and unpredictable. The main task of corporations is the harmonization of interaction with factories, the construction of a coherent management. In dialogue with us, this task is solved. We can suggest what to pay attention to, help formulate the requirements. Corporate leaders should have a systematic approach to the development of their enterprises. Cooperation should be considered from the point of view of the production of the final product - and this is the most difficult.